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Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

posted 4 years ago by Satan2016 (23848)
30 replies | jump to latest

The title is from a WSJ article a month ago, but it's pay-walled. Several other sites have reported the study in the last few days. The first is for the public, other two more skeptical science reports.

Non-peer reviewed study from Stanford found rate of virus may be 50 to 85 times higher than official figures
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

Antibody tests suggest that coronavirus infections vastly exceed official counts https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0
In Pursuit of Real Coronavirus Numbers https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/928954
___

The study from Stanford University, which was released Friday and has yet to be peer reviewed, tested samples from 3,330 people in Santa Clara county and found the virus was 50 to 85 times more common than official figures indicated.

To ease the sprawling lockdowns currently in place to stop the spread of Covid-19, health officials must first determine how many people have been infected. Large studies of the prevalence of the virus within a region could play a key role, researchers say.

That also means coronavirus is potentially much less deadly to the overall population than initially thought. As of Tuesday, the US’s coronavirus death rate was 4.1% and Stanford researchers said their findings show a death rate of just 0.12% to 0.2%.

The study has been interpreted by some to mean we are closer to herd immunity – the concept that if enough people in a population have developed antibodies to a disease that population becomes immune – than expected. This would allow some to more quickly get back to work, a strategy currently being deployed in Sweden. But researchers behind the study said not to jump to conclusions or make policy choices until more research has been done.

[–] Satan2016 (23848) 4 years ago

I googled "Eran Bendavid", the study leader to get those links. I didn't see any major news sites.

Bill Maher say they are more interested in "Panic Porn" than news: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcvIQJ-QurQ

"Real Time" host Bill Maher closed Friday's show by blasting the media for what he called its "panic porn" coverage of the coronavirus pandemic.

"Now that we're starting to see some hope in all of this, don't hope-shame me!" Maher began. "You know, the problem with nonstop gloom and doom is that it gives Trump the chance to play the optimist. And optimists tend to win American elections. FDR has said, 'The only thing we have to fear is fear itself. You know, as full of s--- as he is, I could see Trump riding that into a second term. And then there will be no more hope left for you to shame."

Maher urged news outlets to "rein it in" because the "daily drumbeat of depression and terror veers into panic porn."

"Enough with the 'Life will never be the same' headlines!" Maher exclaimed.

Maher then knocked the media for being "obsessed" with the number of young people who have died with the coronavirus, pointing to the much higher death toll from young people who died from the flu last year.

He added, "We need the news to calm down and treat us like adults. Trump calls you 'fake news,' don't make him be right."

[–] Keelai (32516) 4 years ago

Bill Maher likes to say controversial things to gain attention in order to help his ratings. He's like a Kardashian. What type of loser uses a pandemic to gain popularity?

[–] dmac8 (5050) 4 years ago

"What type of loser uses a pandemic to gain popularity?"

Every news media outlet.

[–] db20db (16559) 4 years ago

And he does so with a smug little smirk on his face. I've never been able to stomach that guy. He's like a wannabe shock jock.

[–] kukuxu (5409) 4 years ago

NO

So, where's the problem then?

This is daily number of deaths in Spain, during the last two years.
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WWDFm/4/

You can notice the seasonal increasing during the winter period, due (mostly) to the usual respiratory illnesses, like flu, or other existing coronavirus (not covid-19), and the very high and narrow peak due to the coronavirus, which is right now decreasing.

The difference between the seasonal flu and this new coronavirus is that it's extremely fast to spread, and there's no herd immunity. It's like you had a whole season of flu concentrated in a couple of weeks. And that's the problem. That collapses hospitals and make doctors and patients feel powerless, because there's a sudden surge of cases way above what any health system could manage at once. But at the end of the day, it's not that deadly. Even in Spain, which has the highest rate of deaths per million right now in the world, the number of deaths is still only slightly above the deaths caused by last year flu season. The final death toll will be likely to be about 50% above last year flu season. It's not such a difference.

[–] Keelai (32516) 4 years ago

If the hospitals become overwhelmed than more people will die since there won't be enough doctors or medical equipment to keep them alive.

[–] Keelai (32516) 4 years ago

The Stanford study says 50% need immunity, but presently only est. 3% have been infected. Another issue is that people who were infected and should have immunity are getting sick again so immunity protection is questionable.

Sweden has a higher death rate than its Nordic neighbors and they are making nursing home residents die at higher numbers because workers are not allowed to wear masks or gloves.

You can make back money. You can't bring back those who will die if you don't take coronavirus seriously and continue the stay-at-home policy to keep the rate manageable.

Three people on my job died so I consider it very deadly.

[–] 102000 (6160) 4 years ago

Please correct me if I'm wrong but the only place I have read about people getting "reinfected" is S Korea and most doctors and scientists are in agreement that the original testes were faulty and those people, (about 160), probably tested negative when they really weren't.

Not trying to argue this point just for the sake of arguing - if you know about something else I would be interested in hearing about it.

Sweden has a higher death rate because they have chosen to keep businesses open and not lock the country down.

[–] Keelai (32516) 4 years ago

Basically, they're unsure and still studying the problem. There have been various explanations including some people not developing strong enough antibodies because they may have had mild symptoms, reactivation of remaining viruses in patient's systems, virus capable of remaining dormant before reactivating, tests picking up dead viruses or false negatives like you wrote.

This site had some of the info.:
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/17/836747242/in-south-korea-a-growing-number-of-covid-19-patients-test-positive-after-recover

The Swedish strategy is based on a myth about young people not becoming seriously ill or dying. Maybe in Asia, but the stats are different in Europe and America:

"In an early snapshot from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, for 2,449 patients whose age was known, 18% were between age 45 and 54, and 29% were between 20 and 44 years old. Among those who were hospitalized, 18% were ages 45 to 54 and 20% were ages 20 to 44."

This article says nursing home residents are dying because the staff are not allowed to wear masks. They're likely undercounting coronavirus deaths due to lack of testing.

"Staff with no masks or sanitiser fear for residents as hundreds die in care homes"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/anger-in-sweden-as-elderly-pay-price-for-coronavirus-strategy

Sweden deaths graph:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVuyv5yXgAE4vQD?format=jpg&name=small

[–] 102000 (6160) 4 years ago

I don't see where there is anything new about the S Korean study and the fact that it has only happened there makes me think it was something besides people who had fully recovered becoming infected again.

[–] Keelai (32516) 4 years ago

I wouldn't depend heavily on any test or policy. For instance, a policy to test temperature to see if people are sick before allowing them inside a place. But, not everyone who is sick has a fever.

Dr Fauci and other scientists/doctors have said nobody knows if or how long antibodies protect people.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/20/facui-urges-caution-about-relying-on-coronavirus-antibody-tests/

Last two paragraphs:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/20/studies-suggest-very-few-have-had-covid-19-without-symptoms

Tests aren't 100% accurate. Problem was also in China. New Zealand won't do antibody tests because of inaccuracy in several countries.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121090127/coronavirus-ministry-of-health-clampdown-on-covid19-antibody-tests-likely

Europe's attempt to avoid the problem:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-test/european-labs-to-receive-control-material-to-spot-false-negative-coronavirus-tests-idUSKBN21J600

[–] Keelai (32516) 4 years ago

More stats:
4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt were tested. 94% complete results show 600 sailors positive with 60% asymptomatic (young and healthy), 1 died.

A cruise ship with older people showed a 18% asymptomatic rate (older and unfit), 1.1% fatality.

In a homeless shelter, of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.

Dr. Fauci said 25-50% are asymptomatic.

He has multiple links:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrB9vl47LQc

[–] Adam60z (3751) 4 years ago

I think Stanford is correct. The actual morality rate is about .12 to .2%. That means about 1 in a thousand, not one in 25. Also the death rate is inflated since they are mixing it with flu, pneumonia, old age, and other causes. They are only taking wild guesses on actual cause of death, especially since they aren't doing any autopsies and few tests.

[–] strntz (11164) 4 years ago

A month ago I estimated the death rate was 0.4 percent when it was reported to be about 2.5%, and got eviscerated for it.

This was my logic: in a country with 330,000,000 people in it, there should have been little chance that any celebrity or other well known person got it. Within a few weeks, we knew about celebrities, athletes, politicians, etc. Right then I guessed the numbers of infected were actually 50 to 100X higher than was believed.

The only stat we could be reasonably be sure about was the deaths, but not the infection rate. But dividing known covid deaths by my guesstimate of the infection rate, I came out with a very small percentage.

It seems now that even more people have been infected and recovered (or never actually sick) than was previously believed.

[–] Adam60z (3751) 4 years ago

Yes, who knows how many are infected with no symptoms. I'm even wondering if SARS CoV-2 has been around much longer than they say, but all of a sudden they report it began 4 months ago from a single location and went from Wuhan to the whole world. As I said I question the death rate because they are guessing at cause of death. You're right: if lots of celebrities have it that means it must be much more prevalent than they say. It's just everyone isn't getting tested.

[–] Keelai (32516) 4 years ago

"...from a single location and went from Wuhan to the whole world. "

All novel viruses epidemics/pandemics start with only one single cell mutation. Scary stuff!

[–] AndyKing1967 (34834) 4 years ago

I’ve been saying this all along.

[–] [deleted] 4 years ago

Over a 100 doctors dead in Italy so I would say it is much worse than the flu.

[–] AmeriGirl26 (12769) 4 years ago

I knew this entire thing was a joke! They keep treating it like the deadliest plague ever to hit the world, and yet people are surviving at a higher rate than expected. The panic has been worse than the disease!

[–] Keelai (32516) 4 years ago

"people are surviving at a higher rate than expected."

Because of the success of social distancing. Policy started too late for people where I live and work who ended up in a hospital or dying.

[–] strntz (11164) 4 years ago

They keep treating it like the deadliest plague ever to hit the world, and yet people are surviving at a higher rate than expected. The panic has been worse than the disease!

While the virus isn't as deadly as many feared, it's infection rate (R0 number) is ridiculous. That's why hospitals in Italy were totally overrun with sick and dead.

If everyone in the U.S caught it, there would be 8 million dead from the virus. And while everyone wouldn't be exposed to it, it's R0 number means that every person who gets it would infect on average 4 or more people. That's how things get out of control.

The typical run of the mill virus has an R0 number far lower, and it drops below 1 during the warm weather which is why it dies out. Far less people are infected.

It's not the mortality percentage of the covid-19 that's noteworthy, it's its infection rare which is what makes this such a killer.

[–] AmeriGirl26 (12769) 4 years ago

What I am curious about is, what are the numbers on asymptomatic people? I've been hearing stories of people testing positive for this virus, but they never have symptoms. It makes me wonder if I have it, or if my family has it, or my neighbors have it, or if the people I see at the stores have it, but none of us knows it.

So far, the worst my family has had to deal with are seasonal allergies.

[–] Mrmojo4700 (20709) 4 years ago

This Doctor does several videos daily and you will find this one interesting:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hrB9vl47LQc

[–] strntz (11164) 4 years ago

It makes me wonder if I have it, or if my family has it, or my neighbors have it, or if the people I see at the stores have it, but none of us knows it.

That is certainly possible. The infectivity of this virus is ridiculous which makes me think it's far more prevalent than anyone knows or admits to.

If the antibodies remain in humans and if they ever test a large group, we'll get an idea how many have been infected.

But that's why this virus is such a ball buster: it might not be all that more lethal than seasonal flues, it's just that it spreads like wildfire.

[–] kukuxu (5409) 4 years ago

If the antibodies remain in humans and if they ever test a large group, we'll get an idea how many have been infected.

Germany is going to do it next month. Spain was going to do it too, but well, it seems it has been cancelled.

[–] Quasimodo (16388) 4 years ago

Well I guess the answer to that question would depend on who you asked.

[–] [deleted] 4 years ago

Exactly. My entire family lives in South New York. Its terrifying. 390 cases in my Moms neighborhood. Not her town, just her neighborhood.

[–] tcrum (30329) 4 years ago

Maybe its the worst cases I hear about that are freaking me out. The 35 year old broadway star who just had his leg amputated, that freaked me out. Thats no flu.

[–] [deleted] 4 years ago

Another New Yorker.