MovieChat Forums > Eternals (2021) Discussion > Let's talk BUSINESS: third flop in a row...

Let's talk BUSINESS: third flop in a row for Disney Marvel?


Last two Marvel movies shared similar results: they had a domestic OW in the range $70M-$80, and they had final results worldwide around $400M.

Marvel movies have budgets around $200M. Add to that a marketing campaign between $100M and $200M (that's not exaggerated, they're extremely expensive), that means that they need a $600M to $800M box office just to pay the bills. Both Black Widow and Shang-Chi couldn't reach that number. In short: they flopped.

Eternals had a $71M domestic OW. It seems that Marvel movies got their audience, but they can't break that ceiling.

Everything points to the third flow in a row for Disney Marvel.

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I wonder if it would have been different if the theater shutdowns had never happened. As a viewer, I basically have three choices for new Disney-produced movies: pay $12 to see it in the theater, or pay $30 to see it as a premium title on Disney+, or just wait a couple months or however long it takes for Disney+ to add it to the rest of their catalog for regular viewing.

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Of course the pandemic has affected these things.

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Or download it because Disney is both a shitty employer and evil company and they get what they deserve.

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EASY ANSWER...MARVEL NEEDS TO ADJUST THEIR FILM PRODUCTION TO WORK WITHIN THE CURRENT CINEMA CLIMATE...THINGS ARE DIFFERENT NOW...COVID AND STREAMING HAVE MASSIVELY CHANGED THE THEATER GAME.

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Or maybe the new movies are crap.

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IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT TRUE.

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Ohh...what a different a couple of years can make!

It's scary!

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Its called a pandemic , at least marvel sold tickets, not like wb lol

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"that means that they need a $600M to $800M box office just to pay the bills"

Where did you learn to math?

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They don't get 100% of the ticket price. It's split around 50/50.

So if your production budget is 200mil, and your P&A (marketing) is 100mil, you need to make double (600mil) that to break even.

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I know that.

1. Show me that marketing cost $100 mil.
2. A $200 million dollar range is absurdly broad.
3. The movie has been out like 5 days.

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If you do, why did you question the math? It's a different issue if you don't believe marketing costs are that high, but that has nothing to do with what you initially said. You thought his "pay the bills" total was off based on what he gave as the cost.

It's already been reported that Eternals had a 200mil production budget, and when there's a post-mortem on its run, Deadline will have the marketing cost. But it's not unusual to spend 100mil+ on marketing for a tent pole like this. 150mil was reported for Black Widow (but that had a longer marketing window due to the pandemic), and Shazam actually spent more on marketing than production. 90mil prod/105 marketing. I'd revise marketing down to 100m-150m, and median production in the 150m-200m range, for these kinda films -- but nothing about what he said is crazy from a math perspective. Although I don't agree with his rhetoric around that math.

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I literally said why.

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And I told you why that isn't a math question.

"where did you learn to math?" in response to his break even total, isn't "How do you know marketing costs that much?"

We only know these numbers b/c they're reported in the trades. That's the only "show me" anyone has. There's no problem with the math he did with those numbers.

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You also admitted you don't know the marketing budget - and it's still only 5 days after it's release.

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He was talking about what's typical, and I responded to that and to you questioning his math. It's not crazy or a math error to assume a similar marketing cost with a typical floor when assessing a similar film with a similar budget -- when we have those numbers from those films. First you questioned his ballpark, but now it's only about Eternals (as you edit your other post) as though nothing can be gleaned from the past.

Now "show me" the math error. You can only know that the math is wrong b/c you know what it really is. What is it? Show me the correct math. Show the mistake he made that you identified. "where did you learn to math?" is being sarcastic about an obvious error. Show me the right answer to his wrong answer. But wait, it's only been out 5 days! So how could you possibly know his math is wrong now?

Now keep wriggling and deflecting (and editing) when we both know you didn't know the split from the start.

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Actually marketing of block busters routinely costs about the same as the production of movies.

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s/b mentioned that disney takes a bigger chunk of domestic ticket prices, particularly in early weeks, i believe. it's been a while since i've read about this, so don't hold me to any numbers - i'll try to track them down later.

but for the first two weeks, when the bulk of the revenue comes in for these films, big studios have deals to take a larger proportion of the ticket revenue.

once it gets out of that window, the theatre's % take increases.

and that particularly applies to these huge, tentpole films.

so it's not necessarily accurate to say 50/50.

though that may be what it averages out to, when you take foreign returns into account, where deals vary. in some regions like china, i believe the take is less than 50%.

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From what I know, from someone who works as a consultant for the studios, is that certain films (like Marvel, Star Wars, etc) have a better cut than 50/50 in the beginning like you say, but the rest of what you say sounds like what used to be the case before the consolidation by the theater chains, when new terms were negotiated. It can get complicated, but he said that 50/50 is fine (worldwide) -- and that you may give a slight edge (1-5pts) when certain movies (not just anything from a big studio), b/c they're negotiated differently -- b/c they're slam dunks for a box office with a high floor. And on the international side, that "less than 50%" is usually 25% in China. Again, the rule of thumb estimate given to me was 50/50 and add a few studio side points for the big, pre-sold, franchise, sequel, tent pole films. But I don't know how covid/streaming might've changed things in some permanent way (neither does he). It seems the studios did the pivot to their streaming subscribership totals or sold them outright to other services, but the exhibitors were just crushed altogether, leaving them with less leverage now? Idk.

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yeah, that's basically a good summary of the broad revenue split as i understand it. and that china figure jibes with what i've heard before.

i could imagine it might be the case that, with major studios having their own streaming services, they may have used that as leverage to tighten the screws even more on exhibitors.

i definitely think it's a bit too simplistic to say that shang-chi, for eg, pulled in 420m or whatever, and disney only got 1/2 of that. given that it hasn't and likely won't play in china, and that disney certainly got a majority of the north american revenue, they almost certainly retained more than half. i don't know what kind of deals they have with theatres throughout europe and asia. it's likely a patchwork, perhaps. it's possible the deals they have in the uk or france might be even more favourable to them. i really don't know, but it seems possible.

regardless, i suspect it's far more complex than 'these movies cost $300-$400m, therefore they're all flops.'

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I didn't agree with the flop rhetoric. They make so much downstream from these films that it's hard to consider them less than successful. They'd prefer smashes, of course, but I don't think Eternals will dramatically change their approach, even if it comes in weak. Also, they're so big and well-oiled now that I suspect their strategy is far more broad than we'll ever understand or quantify from our perch.

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& it's probably also worth mentioning that it's pretty common for movies to lose money.

my understanding (and again it's been a while since i dove into this topic, so i don't want to pin myself to these figures) is that basically 50-60% of released movies never get out of the red, some 20-30% get into a zone where they vaguely break even, and about 5-10% make serious money, and it's those money makers that keep the industry solvent.

the book publishing industry functions in a very similar way, where most published works never come close to making the publisher any money, and everything they do is kept going by the 5% of books they publish that sell 100s of thousands or millions of copies.

the smart person will say 'then just publish successful things!'

we are blessed to have those people with that kind of nostradamus-like ability. funny that they spend all their time on message boards and not actually producing the things that will make millions for everyone.

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Yeah, Peter Guber told a story about that when he was at Sony, I think. Guber told Japanese ownership that the 16 films they made would break down this way: 4 being blockbuster hits, 4 being domestic successes, 4 break even, and 4 being flops. They questioned why they had to make the flops, "just make the hits" instead.

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They questioned why they had to make the flops, "just make the hits" instead

I think Gabriel misunderstood the message.

From what I got from Japanese and Korean shows, sense of humor is more or less the same than in Western countries, but its purpose and context can be different. In Western countries, it's used to add some wit and spice to daily life, while in these East-Asian countries it's more a part of the process of building or defining a relationship, including business ones.

In a Western country, you wouldn't wrap a business request in a joke, and that's why Gabriel felt like "WTF?". In my opinion, though, there was a real request wrapped inside the joke which was "Please, we have limited resources, so don't produce any crazy stuff, make movies that seem that could be profitable". A proper answer would have been to smile, slightly bow and say "I'll do my best".

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Even in your revision the point is missed. Of course they're doing their best to make all 16 "that seem that could be profitable", but they know from experience that all 16 won't work despite that effort. Iow, the message was to brace themselves for a distribution of success levels no matter what -- b/c it's that unpredictable, so we'll spread our bets and hope for the best. And I doubt Peter Guber is unaware of the culture, or sense of humor, while being a bigwig at Sony.

Oh, and sometimes that "crazy stuff" is the hit. Ask Netflix about Squid Game.

"Nobody knows anything" - William Goldman (screenwriter)

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Actually industry average is more like 40/60, cinemas get around 60%. Overseas more like 30/70.

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It got released on friday , its been on release for 3 days , its made 161 million in that time, and shang chi and black widow did well under the circumstances, you have no idea what these films needs to make to break even, and what do you care if they do flop?

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"and what do you care if they do flop?"

Maybe studios start producing better movies instead of these bloated CGI fests...

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Majority of marvel movies are really good well produced movies, thats why the critics and audiences love them

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Well, I don't share their enthusiasm. The latest superhero movies that I liked were made 20 years ago when Brian Singer directed his two X-Men movies. Besides, you can't trust the word of critics anymore.

Edit: Oh yes, I forgot totally Nolan's Batman Begins and Logan. Those were good, also. But in general, and especially these latest Marvel movies, I don't like them. Too much cartoony fighting and CGI.

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Yeah, ppl keep making threads about box office numbers and flops. Who gives a flying fuck.

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Its treated like a football team , some like the other team thats dominated the league, lose.

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Someone else has made that analogy before to me... That's gotta be what it is. Instead of cheering and boosing on sports teams...some ppl cheer and boo on box office returns.

Maybe that's why I can't empathize. Not much of a sports viewer, but when I do, it's not like I'm cheering on my team or something. I'm focused the game, and getting excited at really good plays.

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More like a racehorse.

Modern movies are not fun to watch anymore, they're just white male demonization, too much cgi and bad writing. The competition part is still fun, though.

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BW was a flop. Shang Chi had a nice domestic run, not world shattering but certainly solid. Its international though was a bit of a disappointment.

I believe Eternals is likely to fail in general. It didn't open strong for a Marvel film, no reason to believe its as well like as Shang Chi based on early reviews. So I wouldn't expect the same kind of hold Shang Chi had going into its second weekend. There will be no China for this film as well so it really needs to massively outperform these last two films in other territories.

So of these films BW and Eternals will likely be considered outright failures and Shang Chi will likely have a loss coming out of theaters but with enough good feelings about it it wont be considered a failure outright. A cheaper sequel might be worth considering for it.

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