Will ticket sales struggle or will it be a huge hit?
There is a downward trend with the last 2 films, will there be a big recovery or will ticket sales stay down?
shareBacklash is huge, under a billion
share
MovieChat Forums > Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker (2019) Discussion > Will ticket sales struggle or will it be...
It will be a huge hit, which won't stop the local whiners from saying it's a flop.
It won't be a flop, but it won't be a huge success neither. It's the ending of the new trilogy after all. Anyway, the franchise is mostly dead.
shareI'm still going to see it. I enjoyed The Force Awakens overall but didn't care for The Last Jedi. I was one of the few that enjoyed The Force Awakens and didn't mind the whole A New Hope remake. At least it wasn't a shot-for-shot remake like the Psycho remake. But even after not liking the direction things went narrative wise when the end credits started rolling for The Last Jedi, I'm willing to give Episode 9 a chance to redeem the narrative. I want to see how the trilogy wraps up and possibly corrects the damage The Last Jedi did. I'm waiting until I see Episode 9 before I give my final rating for The Last Jedi. So I'll be there (hopefully) opening day/weekend. I say hopefully because I don't know where I'll be when it comes out. Stuff always comes up for me when I least expect it and at last minute.
shareOh everyone is going to watch it, obviously. Not everyone is gonna pay for it at the theaters tho. Fuck KK and her stupid "message".
shareThe Last Jedi performed about how one would expect the 2nd part of a trilogy to perform, although The Force Awakens set the bar so high it was remarkable that it did so. Only in comparison to something as successful as TLJ would $1.3 billion, and 9th place (at the time) on the all-time gross list be considered a downward trend.
The Empire Strikes Back made 68% of what Star Wars made. The Last Jedi made 67% of what The Force Awakens. That tells us that so far the new trilogy is closely mirroring the box office trend of the first trilogy. By that pattern, we can expect Part 9 to make about 61% of Part 7's take, which is what The Return of the Jedi made in comparison to Star Wars.
That said, I would not be remotely surprised if Part 9 outgrosses them all. The new trilogy has revitalized the franchise and wiped away the bitter memories of the awful prequels. People are hyped for the film and it doesn't even have a name yet, let alone a trailer. Another $2 billion plus global gross is not out of the question.
Wow, talk about delusional, bro? Do you want to completely ignore Han Solo's box office numbers that shows complete and utter destruction?
From my point of view, it is the Sequels that are awful (rehashes).
Seriously, everything about the Prequels was original and unique. In fact, the only thing that the Sequels did right was redeeming Prequels even more.
Solo and Episode 9 are completely different, so it doesn't make sense to factor that in when estimating the box office potential for the former. If you think Solo or Rogue One can be illustrative in making a prediction, explain why. Based on the performance of the original three films, one expects Part 9 to make $1.27 billion. What do you estimate the box office will be for Part 9?
Beyond that, all we can do is wait and see. Let's revisit this thread early next year and see which of us had a better prediction?
No. The fact that it declined by 800million is the reason people observe a downward trend. It's simple arithmetic👍 this one won't hit 1.3...might not break one billion.
shareYou make an interesting argument. Do you also feel that The Empire Strikes Back destroyed the original trilogy? It had the exact same decline in ticket sales from Star Wars as The Last Jedi had from The Force Awakens. I think you are forgetting that second and third parts of a trilogy often sell fewer tickets than the original film. I will be shocked if Part 9 makes less than a billion dollars. Time will tell.
shareso under a billion is a failure.
shareAbsolutely not...the franchise was still being built👍
Not to mention...or forget if you're old enough...empire was not originally embraced as it is now. It broke many rules...cliff hanger...Vader reveal etc. It has become the gold standard for star wars...TLJ will be forgotten.
My point is that even though it was considered a great film-- some even said it was better than the first one-- and was a huge money-maker, Empire still made significantly less than Star Wars. That's just how it works. Star Wars, The Phantom Menace, and The Force Awakens all earned by far the most of their respective trilogies. There was simply no way The Last Jedi could ever make as much as The Force Awakens. That's just reality.
Anything is of course possible, and Part 9 could buck all previous trends and outperform Part 7, but realistic expectations are around $1.2 billion. If Part 9 earns $1.2 billion it will be deemed an unmitigated box office success.
What makes things so difficult to predict is how massively successful The Force Awakens was. That is a tough act to follow. But, The Last Jedi earned more or less exactly what it was expected to earn, hence it being considered a massive financial success. As I said above, only time will tell.
My point is that even though similar earnings...we both know TLJ is no ESB.
plenty of sequels have out preformed originals.
Disney expected a 15-20% drop in your ggtrevenue at bext...we're shocked by performance.
Never said TLJ was a box office failure...it was a disappointment. At 1.2 (which will never happen) it will once again be a huge disappointment.
Keep in mind that while a very, very small, but very, very vocal, group of people have been bad-mouthing The Last Jedi, most people enjoyed it. 91% of critics gave it a positive review, compared to 95% for The Empire Strikes Back, and audiences gave it an A on Cinemascore, the most reliable of the online rating sites. While you may dislike the film, most don't, so it seems you are projecting your own hatred onto your expectations.
Also keep in mind that J.J. Abrams is back for Part 9. He is a master at making engaging, enjoyable sci-fi action films that appeal to both hardcore sci-fi fans and casual fans at the same time. One expects him to deliver another film on par with The Force Awakens. If Part 9 is disliked by critics or audiences, it won't make as much, obviously, but nothing in Abrams history suggests anything other than another amazing film.
nothing in Abrams history suggests anything other than another amazing film
Abrams made a great film at some point in history? When was this? It's the first I've heard of it. share
You must also take into account poor numbers reported by disney. A%17 drop in merchandise sales since 2016 is a clear sign that the vocal admonishment is not necessarily a minority.
And let's not make me post the video of the Canadian Entertainment Tonight critic giving a shining report...only to turn 180° once the embargo was expired😂
The new series has revitalized the franchise??? LOL! I see what you're doing😂👍
shareBased on the current projection of going from 2 billions with TFA to 1.3 billions with TLJ, I predict Episode IX will make around 600-700 millions. Basically, Justice League level bad :D
shareI would like to see some of these scenes in it -- https://screenrant.com/star-wars-episode-9-fan-theories-make-sense/. Some will be popular while others are surprising. This would make for a good forecast I think. What are the Las Vegas oddsmakers giving it? > $2 B, < $1 B or something in-between?
shareI predict up from The Last Jedi, but down from The Force Awakens. I think it will be a hit. I think a lot of people will come to see out the trilogy, even if they are getting sick of it.
But I think it will be hurt because of the glut of Star Wars coming out. There's just too much of it to sustain the hype.