Virus particles don't float free in air. They're suspended in tiny droplets. It's not that hard to understand how moisture you exhale is trapped by a cloth mask while air molecules go through it. Almost all of the virus is stopped but you can still breathe.
We can actually hazard a pretty good guess what would happen with no masks and no social distancing. Thanks to cell phones and tracking software we actually have an enormous amount of data about the mingling and traveling of people in our society. When you know how contagious a virus is, what the maximum range is that one person is likely to infect another, etc., you can model an epidemic spread quite accurately.
It's been done. Estimates vary somewhat but at least 2-2.5 million people in the United States would die if covid-19 was allowed to spread completely unmitigated and the pandemic burned itself out. That figure is probably much too low though. When the health care system is overwhelmed and patients are stacked up in hallways or parking lots because there isn't enough capacity, fatality rates skyrocket. Anyone who needs a ventilator is dead. Most people who just need a supplemental oxygen mask die too. Up to 15% of those infected would become casualties under those circumstances, as opposed to around 1% (or less) when your health care system is functioning normally and they can care for everyone who shows up.
We have highly effective and safe vaccines on the way over the next few months. All we have to do is not be colossally stupid for a little while longer and we're home free. Back during World War II Americans were willing to make sacrifices to support the war effort, everyone was pulling together - what the hell has happened to us? Too many people are unwilling to shoulder the slightest inconvenience. A lot of them are surprisingly candid that they don't give a shit about anyone but themselves, and any requirement that they modify their behavior for the good of society is tyranny! Selfish children.
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