The countdown for the Ukraine War has started
Let's make some predictions. And I'm usually right.
Today, Iran closed the pipeline that supplies Turkey, which has caused massive blackouts in the country. Iran is a Russian ally. Turkey controls the access the Black Sea. This is a way to warn Turkey not to interfere.
The thaw begins in a few weeks, and that will make movement of troops way more complicated. If Russia launches an attack, it has to be in the next two weeks. What's the best moment? A Blitzkrieg initial attack to break through Ukrainian defenses would take about a week. You have Full Moon in February 1th, which benefits Russia, so the attack should be launched 2-4 days before it, to make the most of it.
The war will start likely between January 28th and January 30th.
I wouldn't be worried about a WW3, though. In 3-4 weeks Russia could control East Ukraine. Perhaps they'll control Odessa and the Black Sea coast, or perhaps not. I think Russian will try. Maybe they'll succeed, maybe not. Controlling East Ukraine is more or less a done job, though. Ukrainian army has zero chances of stopping Russia. And what's more: they know it, that's why Ukraine has concentrated its army in the west part of the country, giving up the east one.
The war will stagnate once the thaw begins, which is gonna happen in March. Then it'll be up to diplomats. Chances are the new status quo will be East Ukraine becoming part of Russia, the Dnieper being the new boundary between Russia and Ukraine, and this last one remaining independent, but much smaller.
Good news is that since the new Ukrainian boundary wouldn't be close to Moscow anymore, Russia would be less worried about a post-war mini-Ukraine entering the NATO. Both Europe and Russia are interested in doing business, so in 1-2 years the relation could go much smoother and less conflictive than today.