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I think $600 sounds about right to break even, but I would expect this film to make around 1 billion WW. It's the end of the Saga of a multi-generational story so people, and especially kids or young adults, will go and see it. If the TLJ wasn't so bad it would have made a lot more, but a lot of people will still come out in droves to see how it all ends and wraps everything up.

If this does flop, I doubt Disney is going to shelve the franchise. They already have mini-series' in the works and it's one of the most well known, if not the most, brands in the world. I would expect them to keep steam-rolling the product out, but with the budget toned down in order to generate more profit.

Personally, I have liked everything Disney has done outside of the Saga and determining the EU is non-cannon. I am not excited for this film at all and I'm not sure if I will make it to the theater to watch it. I will rent it for sure, but theater, I don't know.

All I can say is that I'll be contributing my part and not see it at the cinema. I can only encourage anyone else to do the same.

$317 million was The Last Jedi's reported budget. Let's assume these numbers:

Production budget: $250-300 million
Marketing budget: $100-150 million
Total estimated budget: $400 million

Assuming a 55% split with the theaters that show the film, they need about $725 million for break-even.

This doesn't include revenue from the digital release or merchandising (which took a bit hit after TLJ). So your original guess is fairly accurate -- it will need somewhere between $600 million and $700 million to start earning a profit.

I think it will be very close. I definitely don't see it getting past $800 million.

i am genuinely curious to see how general audiences will respond.
we already know that there are message boards & twitter feeds crawling with last jedi haters, who openly hope for this to fail.
but what i don't know, & i don't think anyone knows this, is just how poisoned the general audience is. fanboys are important to a film's level of enthusiasm, but they ultimately make up a pretty small proportion of an audience.

my gut tells me that, if the film delivers, it will do very very well & probably do better than tlj.
but i think there's a non-trivial chance that it could do much worse.
that probably sounds like wishy-washy covering all my bases talk. & it is, but mainly because i think any outcome is possible.
but if pressed to make a prediction, i'll say it will safely make a billion, which is still a lot, and will at least get very close to tlj's total ww gross, if not surpass it.

It won't flop, but it won't be a huge hit as TFA. I'd say box office will be lower than TLJ, but not much lower.

Well since there is zero chance of Jar Jar Abrams telling a cohesive, compelling story that neatly ties everything together he will attempt to double down & try to distract the audience with lots of spectacle and explosions & a lot more OT callbacks.

I wouldn't be surprised if it made almost as much TLJ but i'd be very surprised if it actually made more. My guess is it will make between $800-$900

It will make money. Question is, will it cause people to let go of the Star Wars fandom?

It was such a rarity until the prequels. It had a revival of interest, but it seems like the glut of media isn't keeping fans interested. It seems that the new movies are causing people to turn away.
So I ask, will this keep people interested or is Star Wars going the way of Indiana Jones?

It won't be a flop but I don't see it breaking any records, either. They can hype it up with the "last Star Wars movie" business but this will be the third time they've had a final Star Wars movie. With more movies and shows coming down the pike, people know it's not going away any time soon so it's not really much of an event film.