[deleted]

Much as I'd like to see it fail to hit $1B, it seems likely. It'll be the family film of Christmas weekend, and without competition in that vein except maybe from Jumanji. Disney of course will strongarm theaters into dedicating hugely disproportionate screen time to it, and commence the mother of all marketing pushes. Rey will be on every single screen and other 2d surface observable by the human eye between now and January.

It'll be those things, versus the combination of old fan boycotting and newcomer apathy. Personally I'd bet on ~$750M. But I'm probably biased. :)

If I were advising the "fandom menace" on strategy, I'd say sell your kids and families on Jumanji or even a Frozen 2 encore viewing, if planning a movie outing before Christmas; after Christmas, possibly add Spies in Disguise to that list.

While all those are good points, sadly it'll pass $1 billion. This isn't a spin-off like Solo was with its bad casting and issues when filming the show, this is the final of the trilogy and then there's Palpatine in the mix. It'll get $1 billion for sure. Now if they somehow brought Luke back or something, that would be even better, one final stand against his father's mentor. Wonder if Jar Jar Abrams will make something epic like that happen and not make him drink monster tit milk like Rian Johnson (whatever his name was) did.

Not to mention the millions spent on extensive reshoots, with a dozen cuts being generated with pieces being jumbled around like a jigsaw puzzle. Who knows how much the movie has cost to make by now?

You know when a franchise is on its death bed, is when money becomes more of the discussion than the actual quality of the film itself.

Tick, tock, tick, tock...

If a movie like Transformers can make a billion then I assume this one can too.

This film will make over a billion. Most of the trash talking people will go to the movies and see it even if they claim not to like it.

It will most likely hit around a billion, however how much more over a billion is the question? TLJ came in at $1.332 billion. It will be interesting to see if ROS can beat that. If it turns out to be a legitimately good movie maybe it can take in 1.5 billion. Worst case scenario though it should still take in $800-900 million.

Theres little to no chance that this doesn't at least make $1billion at the box office, its the end to a trilogy, and as far as the Star Wars story/franchise goes, it has more importance than Rogue One or Solo, both of which would have changed nothing if they had not been made (for the record, I Love Rogue One!).

Theres enough curious people that will give in and see it.

However, Star Wars is in a position this Christmas where it doesn't have the Box Office to itself, and has potentially some VERY strong competition.

Now, I have absolutely no bloody interest in Cats, but I can assure you, the female audience is there for it.

Jumanji: The Next Level starts now, and if that plays anything like the previous movie, theres no reason to suggest it won't do a billion. Whether Cats has it in it to do that also is anyones guess, but Star Wars won't be the only choice this Christmas.

And therein lies its problem. If it in any way has a second weekend drop like The Last Jedi did, or drops siginficantly on its opening weekend in comparison to either TLJ or TFA, the competition Star Wars faces means it might only just hit a billion worldwide.

At this point, critic reviews are irrelevant. There is such a disparity between critics and the general audience that if the same WOM that harmed TLJ gets to Rise of Skywalker, then its entirely possible that the latter just fails to hit a billion.

I'm still confident that it hits a billion though, I think personally it will do slightly better than TLJ, but not by much, and when you consider that Rise of Skywalker is likely to be that much more expensive to make, it needs to do more than TLJ for Disney to not consider it a failure.