My new box office prediction - Black Panther (2018) Discussion

[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 6 years ago

lol not too far off from Queens....as late as yesterday queen predicted BP was going fail to meet expectations and disappoint with a 120 M OW and then maybe not even make 300 Million Domestically...

lol

Its going to be another ROUGH few weeks for queen.....First JL(queen Literally tooking A Beating the likes of which you rarely see for the first 2 Weeks JL came out)....Then it was Thor 3(queen once again failed with almost every prediction and was forced to watch while Thor 3 Succeeded in every way queen claimed it wouldnt)....and Now the HELL begins again With Black Panther....

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[–] Jamfo (408) 6 years ago

$25.2-million just from the Thursday opening previews. That places it as the second largest MCU opening.

That means, to NOT beat your absurdly low $45-million opening weekend projection, almost no one would have to see this film Friday through Sunday. Given the great reviews and wonderful word-of-mouth... good luck with that!!

This movie will be over $45-million by end of day Friday.

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[–] lordbishop34 (1442) 6 years ago

That is not a serious prediction is it?

With all the hype and good press it should open quite big, probably 150 mil plus domestic weekend, now what happens after that will depend on the actual quality of the film which from some of the more believable reviews seems to pin it as an above average quality Marvel film, but not the best.

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[–] Bubbathegut (17234) 6 years ago

I think the hype machine will push it over 500m. Although the hype machine backfired on Ghostbusters 16.

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[–] QueenFanUSA (3375) 6 years ago

500 million domestic?

C'mon now.

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[–] Bubbathegut (17234) 6 years ago

C'mon man! 700m WW

lolz

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[–] QueenFanUSA (3375) 6 years ago

Ooooohhhh...lol...okay. That makes more sense!

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[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 6 years ago

It will be shocking if this is able to reach Wonder Woman money domestically but stranger things have happened.

^^^

I would be shocked to if Black Panther makes Wonder Woman money, at this point, 400 Million domestically just isnt possible for BP.......500 Million + seems like the clear number here....

lol 400 Million domestic is now not even possible IF Black Panther literally collapsed!!

were talking 400 Million plus domestic in under 15 days!

Epic fail queen

Yes it looks like BP will be heavily frontloaded. We'll see if Disney has another Last Jedi problem on their hands as early as tomorrow night when we can see the Friday to Saturday hold
^^^^^

oh man this ones gonna hurt, did you hear BP got the extremely rare A+ cinemascore?

Onch!....there goes your "Audiences dont like it, it will be frontloaded excuse" queen

its going to be a hard few weeks for you queen..

PS....

give some thought about Trolling going forward, if you choose to try and spin these incredible results into a negative, it proves Results dont matter to you and theres no point for you to ever give box office predictions again...

the point of talking box office and giving predictions is to see if your right or wrong, to see based on the RESULTS if you were right or wrong....if you choose to try and troll on these historic results, You Prove RESULT dont matter to you, You prove that it doesnt matter how successful a film can ever be, your opinion and stance will not change, it will be the same before the film opened and after...

With BOTH JL and BP....you were wrong and wrong as you could possibly be, the night JL opened you predicted 150 M +....Last Night you predicted 125 Million for BP...

In both cases you were at different ends of spectrum and simply as wrong as you could possibly be....in BOTH cases the films Succeeded and failed worse than anyone could have imagined...

and in BOTH cases the results did not matter to you...

You can have a film OVERPERFORM more than BP has...

you can have a film Under perform worse than JL did....

if there was ever 2 films where RESULTS matter...its JL and BP....and you simply ignore these result, no worse you are delusional when it comes to the results....

theres just no point in ever talking box office or giving predictions again if you cant except the results, Why give a prediction if you no matter what the results are your stance is going to be exactly the same as it was before the film came out...

With BP you have a chance to somewhat gain some form of credibility back, If you choose to simply NOT Troll, and just except the results, you are at least showing RESULTS matter to you...

but if you get back on the internet today, read the reports of BPs incredible results and immediately come here and start trolling and trying to spin these results into a negative,,,You literally LOSE YOURSELF, you lose on all credibility and make it completely pointless for you to ever give a box office prediction ever again....If you read BPs results and try to spin them negatively, you Prove RESULTS just dont matter, and RESULTS are key to giving predictions, they are everything...

so I say to you queen, this isnt about trolling anymore...this is about you....can you save yourself?

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[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 6 years ago

500 million domestic?

C'mon now.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

LOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLO
LOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLO
LLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLO
LOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLO
LLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLO
LOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOL

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[–] NorrinRad (5046) 6 years ago

[–] QueenFanUSA (573) 17 days ago
500 million domestic?

C'mon now.

Well? What have you to say now? Looks like $600 Million is soon to occur now.

Didn't we go through this with Thor Ragnarok? T:R according to you would never see $300 Million Domestic nor would it see $850 Million WW. Why are you so cynical and pessimistic when it comes to MCU, Marvel and Disney?

I remember you touting the upcoming slate of Warner/Disney films and Directors as evidence that Marvel/Disney has peaked. Remember Whedon for Bat Girl, James Wan, etc? Where does that then new found enthusiasm for all things DCEU stand as of now?

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[–] lordbishop34 (1442) 6 years ago

It will be more than that, its opening will pretty much guarantees it. I don't think we can truly predict its performance till after we see its second week drop. JL was bad film that under performed and it still made it passed 650 mil. This film is over performing with hype and media push. I think it will perform somewhere between Doctor Strange and Thor 3 in the end.

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[–] NorrinRad (5046) 6 years ago

This film is over performing with hype and media push. I think it will perform somewhere between Doctor Strange and Thor 3 in the end.

Are you saying that BP is overperforming as a Comic Book Movie compared to similar Comic Book Movies, origin story, new character, etc?

If there is a BP 2 , which I think there will be, I think that will determine the comparative performance for BP. Will Wonder Woman 2 perform as well as the original? It's hard for me to really understand how just plain old marketing and hype could get the type of numbers that BP is appeared to be ready to get.

If that was the case why doesn't the industry just do that for every movie. TLJ still made 1.3 Billion dollars and people are saying that it is under performing.

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[–] lordbishop34 (1442) 6 years ago

As a character I think its unquestionable performing beyond its name recognition based on comics and that is tied directly to marketing and media hype which fills in the gap from comic to theater. Wonder Woman and TLJ are probably the closest comparable as far as media push is concerned, even though this film is outperforming WW launch it will be a question whether this film will have the same legs as WW since WW success came more from its strong run than its opening weekend. TLJ opened very well, it just wasn't as well received a movie as TFA was. It was unlikely ever going to make as much as TFA, but I am sure Disney didn't think the drop off would be that steep.

BP is also outperforming its original projections. So as a character and its original projections it currently performing well above what was expected. Media hype, more so than even marketing can still have quite an impact on opening weekend. It won't carry a film for its full run, but it can certainly set it up strong before WOM has its impact. But opening weekend won't mean much long term if it drops like a stone after this weekend, that will be an important thing. Right now the more reasonable reviews seem to indicate its a good film overall, not the best Marvel has to offer, but certainly not the mess DC has been putting out. We will see, we need more time to see what it will do.

I personally thought both Ant Man and Dr Strange performed better than reasonably expected too and no one saw GOTG performing like it ended up doing. Marvel has a track record with this so perhaps we should just expect Marvel films to do well regardless at this point.

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[–] LLOwens (983) 6 years ago

Marvel's last 10 movies have all done well at the box office, so to say that MCU films have performed better than expected is an understatement.

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[–] lordbishop34 (1442) 6 years ago

Very true, I thought for sure either Ant Man or Dr Strange would be one that finally disappointed, but the Marvel train keeps on rolling.

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[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 6 years ago

This film is over performing with hype and media push. I think it will perform somewhere between Doctor Strange and Thor 3 in the end.

^^^^^^^^^^

you no longer have this opinion right?

You now see Black Panther is going to easily out gross Thor 3 and DS right?

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[–] lordbishop34 (1442) 6 years ago

I think it will out gross Thor 3, but I am not sold on a billion yet. I have to see next week before I commit to that. Remember BvS was a guaranteed billion dollar movie..until it wasn't. This has a lot of attention that was brought it, so we don't know how the legs will really be once the film has to stand on its own. It could still have a reasonable run and not make a billion. I do however think its likely to reach a billion at this point, since unlike BvS people seem to actually like this movie overall.

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[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 6 years ago

Remember BvS was a guaranteed billion dollar movie..until it wasn't

^^^

not a good example....BvS absolutely opened like A Billion dollar movie, it had a 420 M+ Opening, Multiple box office sites said "It would have to fall off the face of earth now and collapse not to make 1 Billion after OW"

and thats exactly what happened, due to BvS being an Awful movie, It had HISTORIC DROPS and Poisonous Word of mouth....

Black Panther simply couldnt be more opposite, Black Panther has ALL TIME GREAT Word of mouth, ALL TIME Great reviews...Its simply not in the realm of possibility that BP could have anything close to a BvS drops...

BvS was a guaranteed 1 Billion + movie....unfortunately it took the film being one of the worst CBMs of all time for it to fall short of those expectations....

I do however think its likely to reach a billion at this point, since unlike BvS people seem to actually like this movie overall.

^^^^

if you understood there was a HUGE difference between Black Panther and BvSs Reception, why did you make the comparison is the first place....

I just see no comparison between BP and BvS

BvS was thought of as a sure fire guaranteed 1 Billion dollar + Movie before opened...

no one thought Black Panther was going to hit 1 Billion before it opened....
^thats fact 1 for why these 2 films arent comparable

Fact 2 is....Black Panther is going to make 1 Billion as DIRECT RESULT of being A Universally praised film that has ALL TIME great word of mouth

BvS didnt make 1 Billion as DIRECT RESULT of being A Universally HATED film that had ALL TIME poisonous word of mouth

these 2 films couldnt be more opposite....

therefor looking to BvS and suggesting it as Proof Black Panther isnt going to make 1 Billion Is AN AWFUL COMPARISON

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[–] lordbishop34 (1442) 6 years ago

BvS opening was huge, if it had been a well liked movie it would have made a billion easy even if it was front loaded. It was not a well liked film and dropped like a stone. It did not start projecting as falling short till after its opening weekend. I believed BP could still fall short of a billion primarily because it could have...a big drop off can happen even with a well liked film with an opening as large as BP and a ok run could have resulted in a less than billion even with its strong opening...I used BvS primarily because it was an example of opening meaning nothing at the end if it didn't continue to perform, the difference primarily being peoples reaction to the final product. I never said it could never make a billion once the opening weekend started coming in I said it could still fall short of a billion which was true at the time. BP does not have a true comparison, because its hard to quantify the social push the film had and whether that would translate to sustained success which is why i was curious what the second week would bring, even with a lack of true competition. WW had some of the push but it translated into more of a strong run than a big opening, which for a DC film I believe was the worst at the time and compared to its domestic take you could say its international take kind of under-performed.

Its ok man, its going to make a billion, your guarantee is safe ( it was never really in danger ;) ).

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[–] bozo_500 (12284) 6 years ago

BP makes a billion and BvS no make it to 900m even (with JL far worse). Jesus. Who the hell would ever think this would happen just a few years ago. *shakes head*

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[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 6 years ago

BvS opening was huge, if it had been a well liked movie it would have made a billion easy even if it was front loaded. It was not a well liked film and dropped like a stone. It did not start projecting as falling short till after its opening weekend.

^^^agree thats pretty much exactly what I said

I believed BP could still fall short of a billion primarily because it could have...a big drop off can happen even with a well liked film with an opening as large as BP and a ok run could have resulted in a less than billion even with its strong opening

^^^ complete disagree, Its impossible for BP to fall short now....

WE are already getting confirmation BP isnt having the big drops your suggesting....BP just had a fantastic 46% 2nd drop....thats Incredible...

overseas BP had a 43% 2nd weekend drop...

You are for some reason just not excepting facts....

We have enough Data to 1000% know for sure BP is easily gross over 1 Billion...

this isnt a guess or estimated...its simply MATH at this point....and everyone but you seems to be doing the MATH.....Look below

https://www.comicbookmovie.com/black_panther/box-office-black-panther-holds-strong-over-2nd-weekend-on-release-should-easily-pass-1-billion-globally-a158163

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-26/-black-panther-heads-toward-1-billion-at-worldwide-box-office

https://www.onenewspage.com/video/20180220/9688900/Black-Panther-to-Hit-Billion-Worldwide.htm

https://www.thewrap.com/black-panther-1-billion-box-office-worldwide-prediction/

https://thegrapevine.theroot.com/black-panther-continues-to-slay-box-office-records-nea-1823319291

Gitesh Pandya
‏ @GiteshPandya
Feb 25

#BlackPanther dominates #boxoffice again in 2nd wknd with $108M. Even bigger than 2nd wknd of #Avengers. Monster totals now $400M dom & $704M global. On a collision course with $600M dom mark. Will do well over $1B global.

Literally every single box office analyst and site are ALL doing the Math, and ALL know 1 Billion is guaranteed

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[–] lordbishop34 (1442) 6 years ago

Bill, I already said in my above post that it was going to make a billion. I am speaking in the past tense when discussing the under a billion thing. There was no big drop thus barring some apocalyptic event it’s going to do over a billion.

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[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 6 years ago

K....all good

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[–] LLOwens (983) 6 years ago

Don't feel bad your prediction is way, way, way off target as even the early tracking estimates have significantly underestimated how much this film will make on opening weekend which should generate well over $200 million in box office on opening weekend (including Presidents' Day).

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[–] bozo_500 (12284) 6 years ago

Take away the opening wkend prediction and I was almost there

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[–] TJLamb0518 (3316) 6 years ago

"I was totally wrong."

Try that.

It might help you seem like less of an asshat.

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[–] bozo_500 (12284) 6 years ago

I was totally wrong.. from a certain point of view

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[–] TJLamb0518 (3316) 6 years ago

No. You made a prediction. It was wrong. There is no point of view.

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[–] bozo_500 (12284) 6 years ago

you were right and I was wrong. About the horses ..they are from Spain not Portugal haha

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[–] TJLamb0518 (3316) 6 years ago

And this is why no one respects you.

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[–] bozo_500 (12284) 6 years ago

😎

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[–] captainbucky (15252) 6 years ago

You were very wrong Bozo the person!

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[–] bozo_500 (12284) 6 years ago

Indeed. 45m opening weekend!

350m worldwide total gross!! LOL!!

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[–] captainbucky (15252) 6 years ago

Lol you could have just edited your post so it looks like your not a huge liar!

But well played bozo the person

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[–] bozo_500 (12284) 6 years ago

Yes all i had to do was remove 'Opening wkend 45m' and it'd have looked like those were figures for wkend only and id have been almost right! And no edit evidence either Lol

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[–] captainbucky (15252) 6 years ago

Well you are a scholar and a gentleman sir. Good form. Top Drawer! TOP DRAWER!

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[–] bozo_500 (12284) 6 years ago

😎

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[–] LLOwens (983) 6 years ago

Currently, its BO take is $450 million worldwide. So you'll probably be off by only $650,000,000 as it should easily gross $1,000,000,000 worldwide when it's all said and done.

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[–] bozo_500 (12284) 6 years ago

😎

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[–] LLOwens (983) 6 years ago

Does this site now have emoticons like IMDb used to have when the boards were still in existence--or do I have to copy and paste emojis from another source?

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[–] LLOwens (983) 6 years ago

UPDATE: "Black Panther" has raked in $1.24 billion worldwide and counting, so currently you're off by a measly $890,000,000. If this film continues to have legs, as it has legs for days, you'll probably be off by a mere $1,000,000,000 and change.

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[–] bozo_500 (12284) 6 years ago

😎

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[–] furiousstyles (4359) 6 years ago

you got that wrong didnt you

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[–] bozo_500 (12284) 6 years ago

I was wrong.. About the horses.. the Lippizaners? They are from Spain not Portugal heh

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[–] ranmast (620) 6 years ago

Wow, this board is full of the best seers in the world. Nostradamus is a tit drinking baby in comparison with these luminaries here...

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[–] furiousstyles (4359) 6 years ago

Note to op, you suck at predicting, now eat crow

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[–] bozo_500 (12284) 6 years ago

😎

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[–] ranmast (620) 6 years ago

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[–] ranmast (620) 6 years ago

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[–] ranmast (620) 6 years ago

Another failed thread...

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[–] bozo_500 (12284) 6 years ago

The box office isn't what i thought it was. it isnt what i thought it'd be. I was wrong. i was so wrong!. i must leave.

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[–] ranmast (620) 6 years ago

Well, it is not just you, is the other bunch of idiots who joked/trolled about the possible number and tried to downplay BP box office run, in this very thread. At least you were a man an accepted you were wrong. Kudos!

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