Final box-office projections?


Lets guess how it will finish overall.

Honestly I’m surprised it made even those money. I thought it might flop.

It under performs massively to first movie.

Avatar made $785 millions at domesitc and $2,899 billion worldwide

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/cumulative/all-time

First one had amazing legs thanks to novelty and word of mouth. Second one doesn’t have that. Its like it came out and people are already forgetting it and there is no going to theater 10 times to watch it. And 3 hours time is ruining it. There is no way I will go watch it second time to sit for another 3 hours to watch that pointless action scene at the end. Movie should have been 2.5 hours max.

It will get good money between 26 December and 5 January. And then will probably decline massively. It should get 400 millions easy. But will it get to 500+ millions? That goal is hard to reach. But it must not to be considered flop, considering its gigantic budget.

I actually root for it. Because at least its some movie that is not comic books. And its sci fi movie. And I like Cameron’s work overall. And people need to go to theaters to save them. Covid wounded box-office too much. Not even quarantine itself. But those streaming platforms that started airing movies right after premiere. And even now they still do that. There is such short time between movie theater and streaming airing. People just stopped going to movies the way they were.

I used to go to theater frequently. Because there was no way otherwise to watch big movie quickly. It would show up 4 month later. Now its our there in few weeks so why bother and spend money. And many people do the same. And apart from comic book movies - there are many small budget ones that need to make some money. But no one bothers to spend money watching it when it will be for free in no time.

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Currently domestic it is performing similar to Rogue One, surprisingly also the 2D share is at around 40%. If it stays like this, domestic projection is exactly around 500M. Internationally it is much much better performing. If it performs this well, it will be most likely even be the most successful movie at least in France and Germany in 2022, depending on the performance until Saturday. China is underperforming, likely caused by the Covid Breakout, but OKish.
Currently I assume 1.5 - 1.8Bn finally, which would be performance like Lion King 2019. So just below No Way Home on Top 7. If US maybe recovers after the blizzard and international stay so strong, the 2Bn is in reach, which would be Top 4ish.

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The ice storm has been hampering its boxoffice in the US.

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Wasn't there a huge mega blizzard when the first Avatar came out? Impacting box office. This all feels very familiar.

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It is underperforming, but one could argue that the winter storm is to blame. During the first week, it did better numbers than avatar 1. The second week did not go down well - and the second weekend is the lowest box office for theaters in the usa in decades - again, due to the storm. When the storm clears out, we'll know more if the storm was the biggest reason for such massive drop off. If the numbers remain this low after the planes start flying again and roads are cleared out.... only then can we really say with certainty that there is indeed a massive drop off.

The first film was in the movie theaters for the entire year - which is what allowed it to get such big numbers. Anyways, I'm reading reviews and they are nowhere near as glowing as they were for the first film. Looks like people are starting to pay more attention to the story and the 3D is kind of old news at this point. So, in theory, this film should do much lower numbers than the first - perhaps 2 billion or around that number. I genuinely want this film to fail - alas, I want every film with little to no story, or a story written by a grade 2 students, to fail. Reason being - I want hollywood to start hiring decent script writers - and for films to feature great scripts alongside whatever CGI they can muster (CGI is optional - a great story is a must). I fear I'm in minority though - and these brainless CGI-fest films are basically it for the next 20 years or longer. Or if they ever do a story driven film, it always ends up being uber woke lol

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1.3, 1.6 billion.

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1.6 billion worldwide

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I was thinking it looks like 1.5 billion, which is similar to what others are thinking. It's getting decent word of mouth. I think it'll do steady business.

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It's going to pass $1b today.

I don't see how it doesn't bump up very close to $2b in the end. Maybe more, maybe a little bit less, but in that area.

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It’s the fastest movie to reach a billion this year. That includes Top Gun, which made under 1.5 billion. And it did it in 14 days.

I think 2 billion is a good bet. This film will be out for more months. It could become the highest grossing film of all time.

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