MovieChat Forums > Captain Marvel (2019) Discussion > Does the release date say something abo...

Does the release date say something about Marvels confidence in this?

posted 5 years ago by Burk48917 (11026)
10 replies | jump to latest

I'm not bashing, I love most of the Marvel movies & the one good DC movie (love you Gal), but movies like Black Panther and Deadpool we're given the winter release because they weren't sure how they would be received, and they were unexpected hits. Movies with a lot of confidence generally get the April-July slots, because they are historically the biggest box office months. Timing with Infinity 2 probably has something to do with it, but March isn't exactly known for putting out studios finest films. This is the first Marvel film I've been Meh about, but sometimes that's just a case of too much of a good thing.

[–] Fonz (632) 5 years ago

I think it has more to do with tying Captain Marvel into Endgame. Just releasing it just before Endgame helps keeps the story going.

[–] AP (5259) 5 years ago

Yeah, it seems like this is in preparation for Endgame more than anything.

[–] TJLamb0518 (3316) 5 years ago

Exactly. No WAY is Marvel moving the cash cow off of May. So if Captain Marvel is to play a part in it, you have to introduce her before that.

[–] galahadfairlight (414) 5 years ago

Its solely because of Avengers: Endgame. Literally everyone that has any kind of time invested in these movies, knows, absolutely that Captain Marvel plays a major role in Endgame and the battle against Thanos, so you can be sure that whilst everyone that watched Infinity War won't necessarily go see Captain Marvel, a pretty big percentage of that audience will, and it will help Captain Marvel and Endgame to both be juggernauts.

Endgame is going to be massive, having a crucial other movie before it absolutely won't hurt either of them.

My money is on Captain Marvel beating Wonder Woman.

[–] NorrinRad (5047) 5 years ago

I totally agree with you that Captain Marvel is built to Ride The coattails of Avengers Infinity War as well is a lead in to Endgame; and I don't say that in a negative sense as if the success of Captain Marvel will be unearned. Disney/Marvel is fully aware and has always been preparing for a transition from one set of heroes to the next.

RDJ, Evans and Hemsworth had long multiple picture deals but they were never meant to be there forever. Black Panther, Captain Marvel and some other characters were going to have to start to take the lead for the MCU. The print version of the Avengers were structured the same way for various reasons.

Will Captain Marvel be massive, (+$ 1 Bil)? I'm not sure it will be and I think financially Captain Marvel has a base of around $550-$600 Million worldwide just because it is a Marvel product. Will CM be an event film? No. Captain Marvel will have to earn those extra, extra dollars by being a very well written and acted story that is both fun and a solid part of the MCU's long form story telling. Positive Word Of Mouth will make or hinder this film from being a Box Office smash for a first time character on film.

Captain America The First Avenger (which to me is similar to CM's period piece introduction, 1940's vs 1990's) was a difficult sell to audiences and actually had no China release at all. The burgeoning China box office has helped almost all films post the introduction of the superhero acceptance phenomenon. Wonder Woman did not do very well in China for whatever their reasons, ~$90 Mil and BP did not fare much better ~$105 Million.

Captain Marvel may also have to contend with stronger competition and the fact it is a lead in to Avengers:Endgame. Some people may just wait until Endgame to check out what she does there instead. It is a very tricky gambit.

My prediction is that Captain Marvel will do just about the same world wide as WW by playing better than WW overseas but not as well domestically be being a neutral feminist film. CM is not the SJW, feminist, ant-male that some are angsting over. Pfft.

I'm thinking all variables considered CM is $800 to $825 million.

[–] QueenFanUSA (3375) 5 years ago

I think that you can cut Wonder Woman's domestic box office in half and you may be close to what CM's potentially is .

International may fare a bit better but not much.

Domestic:170-240 million

Global total: 450-550 million

[–] galahadfairlight (414) 5 years ago

You're not consistent.

You said it will land on the lower end of the MCU, and that lower end is The Incredible Hulk and Captain America: The First Avenger, the first one didn't crack $300million and Cap didn't crack $400 million.

You're also suggesting that Captain Marvel is barely able to beat Ant-Man's first movie, which is frankly ridiculous because you've not considered China.

Avengers Infinity War did $359million in China, Ant-Man and the Wasp did $121million in China.

Wonder Woman did $90million in China which isn't bad, but then again, it couldn't beat a 3rd tier character like Ant-Man.

Captain Marvel is the next direct link to Avengers Endgame, it is inconceivable that the China market will not goto see Captain Marvel, KNOWING its main character will feature heavily in Endgame.

The only area you might be right is that Captain Marvel might not do as well as Wonder Woman domestically, but foreign will more than make up for that.

I think at this point you're going to have to give up making estimates for Marvel movies, to date, I don't think you've successfully got one right, you certainly got Ant-Man and the Wasp very wrong.

[–] galahadfairlight (414) 5 years ago

I don't see Captain Marvel crossing a billion, I don't see it matching Black Panther by quite some way.

Its not going to be an event movie like some considered Black Panther to be, but when people talk about Captain Marvel, they talk about her being as powerful if not more so than Thor, and that is going to pique interest.

As for some thinking this is some kind of SJW movie, like you I don't think its anything of the sort, its just unfortunately how some are interpreting the advertising for it, and i'm also thinking some of Brie Larsons stilted scenes are deliberate to show her what shes like before her returning back to Earth.

Captain Marvel can't be compared to something like Ant-Man that isn't as high a tier a character, so the chances of Queens proclamation that Captain Marvel ends up at the lower end scale just isn't likely unless the movie stinks.

Your estimate is probably about right, but I would say it will do on the higher end to beat Wonder Woman.

[–] NorrinRad (5047) 5 years ago

One oddity that I think will happen is that Captain Marvel will do substantially better in China than Wonder Woman due to the Marvel Brand and that it is NOT set during a controversial war time setting. How much better? I say 50% it may net $150 Million in China alone. I think South Korea will provide solid numbers for CM pushing the overall foreign numbers into a very comfortable area.

The Disney/Marvel marketing machine will take full advantage of the Avengers tie-in for CM to kind of slingshot CM into popularity.

The negative comparison of CMs potential box office to BPs box office is nothing more than a way to denigrate the film. No sane person is picking CM to be a bona fide guaranteed $1 Billion dollar movie. No one picked BP for that and NO one picked Aquaman for a bona fide $1 Billion after all the damage the DCEU did to their slate of films.

WW's performance was stellar and unexpected. It was indeed welcomed by Warner but it was unexpected. Estimating CM at $850 as a bona fide is a stretch and I just believe that Disney experts will be looking at a number far less than that as their expectations. Justice League did $660 worldwide and everyone thought those were solid numbers even though they expected JL to do $1 Billion. Why is CM being judged at such a higher standard for success? JL did $230 domestic and it had Wonder Woman in the film!!

Queen is being disingenuous in his box office analysis and is only looking for an easy "I told you so" by predicting something that Captain Obvious can see.

[–] [deleted] 5 years ago

as i recall, i believe there was a rolling stone story where kevin feige was quoted as telling ryan coogler prior to its release that black panther was the best film they'd made. i think they were quite confident in it. i'm sure they didn't expect it to become the phenomena that it did, but i think they were very confident in the film itself.

feb/march is not the dumping ground it used to be. i think the fact marvel is using this as their opening act for endgame actually says something positive.