MovieChat Forums > Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker (2019) Discussion > ‘Rise of Skywalker’ Could Score Massive ...

‘Rise of Skywalker’ Could Score Massive $200 Million Opening Weekend


That would make it #8 highest OW, with WW gross $1.2 billion or more. I think it will do better than TLJ.

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-box-office-opening-weekend-early-tracking-1203417884/

Given demand for the Skywalker saga’s epic conclusion, Disney and Lucasfilm’s sci-fi space opera is on pace for a start between $175 million and $200 million, according to early tracking. While that figure won’t come close to dethroning “Avengers: Endgame” and its historic $357 million launch, it would still rank among the best domestic debuts of all time.

“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” will more realistically land among an impressive bunch that includes “Avengers: Infinity War” ($257 million), “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” ($247 million), “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” ($220 million) and “Jurassic World” ($208 million). Only seven films have ever surpassed the $200 million mark during their first weekend in theaters.

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There is near-ZERO anticipation for Rise of Skywalker. Where does Disney get their stats? Does a Schill's anticipation count as real anticipation or what?

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[deleted]

I wish there was a 'Thumbs-Up' button on comments.

Yes, Disney's whole reputation is now on the line with the blowback they're experiencing because they raped the franchise with SJW politics.

None of the numbers will be trustworthy, either attendance or revenue - their whole reputation is now hinged on lying.

SIT THIS ONE OUT FOLKS - DON'T REWARD 'EM WITH YOUR HARD EARNED MONEY!

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The last SW I paid $ for was TFA and I checked out 15 minutes in. That's how thick they applied the wokeness. I've skipped all the rest since, I'm all set.

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Awesome!

Spread the word: Fans don't let fans watch Disney Star Wars!

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For the most part, Star Wars Rebels was beyond amazing, best seen after Clone Wars.

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Could the plan all along have been to drive the most loved characters off a cliff?

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Disney kamikazed the sequel trilogy intentionally, in order to stop making payouts to anybody Pre-Disney. I'm just repeating what I heard.

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This. There is no fanfare. Not a single person I know, many of who are regular moviegoers and avid Star Wars fans have even mentioned this film.

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Where do you get that? Near-zero? Aside from a few bitter snowflakes that clog this board with their whining, anticipation is massive.

The proof of the pudding will be in the tasting, as they say. If you're correct, the film won't perform well at the box office. What do you expect it to make during its opening weekend?

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Filmbuff...dontchaknow?

The Opening Weekend numbers will be fake because Disney will be buying up half the tickets!!!

:p

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What a way for these trolls to prepare for the film's success.

Up the budget from around $400-450 million to $1.2 billion
Claim that Disney bought the tickets

Sure-fire explanation for how the film actually failed when it appeared to succeed. Trolls can't lose!

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$18 million Thursday night. So another $18 million on Friday.

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Anticipation is massive? I think not. Hardly any cinema seats have been pre-booked for the entire first week in my local large cinema (containing 15 theatres), and the same goes for cinemas in other Australian cities. No more than 20 to 30 seats booked in a 400 seat theatre. That’s unprecedented for a SW movie. These facts show that people are staying away in droves.

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Aha, so because you have observed that your local Australian theater isn't sold out we can infer that no one is excited for the film? Here in the USA the film has shattered records for ticket pre-sales. I wonder if your personal observation of one theater or a documented record of all ticket sales in the USA is more telling as to how big anticipation is for the film?

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Hi Satan,

Hey, look at douchey you, referencing the $1.2 billion number I SWAG'ed at on a different thread.

I guess I was correct, eh?

Production Costs: $600 Million (including reshoots)
Marketing Costs: $600 Million (mostly buying seats)

Total Costs to Breakeven: $1.2 BILLION!

Disney's screwed the pooch, they'll never make their numbers - they'll lie, they'll cheat, and they'll steal in order to cover-up this massive failure and cover the asses of the shitbag executives involved.

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That's insane. Heads are gonna roll at Disney HQ. My prediction for opening weekend will be $18 million.

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You're a fucking retard. Did another retard wearing a styrofoam mask give you those numbers.

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Good Lord but you're a butt-hurt little thing, get your boyfriend to use some lube next time.

The budgets on TFA & TLJ were $245 & $317 million respectively, and I've heard the cost of the reshoots alone on RoS are at $300 million, not to mention a probable $300+ million production budget on the finale of the series.

Then we need to add the undoubtedly crazy ass marketing budget (buying those seats ain't cheap) - and god only knows where the final number is at, but generally run around x2 of production budget.

What are your numbers Sweetie Pie?

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Reshoots costing 300 million, haha and you belive that ?

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Judging from the results of TLJ, yes, I do believe they may have had to reshoot 75% of the movie. Do I believe that reshooting 75% of the movie could cost $300 million? Yes, I do.

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You're living in Fantasyland if you believe that. And $600 million to promote the film? Laughably insane. The promotion budget is likely closer to $100 million. A Star Wars film promotes itself, and doesn't need the push other films do. Notice how small the marketing campaign bas been, and that there hasn't been a major marketing effort by Disney. The world knows the film is coming without ads everywhere.

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Charlies Angels had a marketing budget of $100 million, until Sony executives cut it to $50 million after seeing the film.

So you're asserting that the capstone movie of the most profitable franchise in film history has the marketing budget of a C List reboot of a 40+ year old B List TeeVee series?

. . . lol

Avengers Endgame marketing budget was $200+ million, but of course, the company didn't have to buy seats for that.

Look, it's Disney, and this is a flagship franchise that they've severely damaged - it's not just about selling the movie anymore, it's about selling Disney as NOT being a company run by a bunch of no talent, woke, hooked-nosed fucktards.

I think they will do ANYTHING to save face.

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Can you provide facts that disney bought tickets ? How much did they spend ? And is they spent say 200 million , why didnt they just make another movie ? Or you could just say , im extremely butthurt that disney is successful, therefore i will so all i can to troll and spread hate because im a big baby that cant get his own way.

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This isn't a courtroom, and sketchy unethical business practices usually seek to conceal their activities.

However, there are enough anecdotal reports on TLJ from theater worker/managers speaking of buying patterns of blocks of presold tickets being purchased and not redeemed for key showings to indicate a problem.

You want to be a true believer in the criminals that run Corporate America, knock yourself out - however, a normal person doesn't generally like to be lied to by a scummy company seeking to steal their money to purchase a shit product based on manufactured PR.

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Or we could wait till the movie is released, make our own opinion instead of acting like a couple of queers fighting over cock? What say you ? When i went to the movies as a kid i didnt spend my time being a ahole figuring out why it was shit , i moved on , i suggest you do the same instead of embarrassing yourself

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". . . didnt spend my time being a ahole figuring out why it was shit , i moved on . . ."

Speaking of moving-on - ya' know, there's an ignore button available to you that will make me disappear.

If my shit-posting bothers you that much, I suggest you learn how to use it.

On the other hand, I won't be ignoring you - I enjoy your stuff, it's funny.

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I see from your other posts that you aren't interested in facts, and prefer conjecture based on anger and politics, so I'm probably wasting my time here, but for the sake of offering a rational response to your irrational assertions...

For starters, you're making up numbers. No one outside of a few high-level Disney execs or accountants knows what was spent to market a film, so when you say "film X had a marketing budget of Y" what you're really saying is "here's a completely made-up number that I am willing to believe.

That said, a movie like Charlies Angels needs a bigger marketing push than a Star Wars movie, because no one knows it exists unless they're told about it. Star Wars films don't need as much in terms of marketing because they have a built-in audience. They certainly need some, and Disney wants to create a buzz, but when it comes down to it, the fact that it is a Star Wars film matters more than any marketing campaign.

Also, you're acting as if it somehow costs more to market a film that cost more to make. A commercial costs the same, regardless of the movie it's advertising. An ad in a magazine costs the same, too. All ads do. So if a studio can successfully market film A for $75 million, they can market a Star Wars film equally well for the same amount.

Here's something to consider: Back in 2007, when the MPAA last released marketing costs in their annual reports, the average marketing cost of a studio movie was $36 million. Prices have no doubt risen since then, but that gives us a good barometer for the cost.

We have no idea what is being spent to market the new Star Wars film, but it's certainly in the ballpark of $100 million, and at most $150 million, though that figure is highly doubtful. Again-- we don't know, but past costs and common sense are all we have, and that's what makes the most sense.

As for "buying seats," that's pure nonsense. There has been zero evidence, zero anything other than a few Disney-haters saying “well, it could happen!”

Lastly— a damaged franchise? Based on what, exactly?

The Force Awakens— made more at the U.S. box office than any film in history, by a wide margin, and over $2 billion globally. The Last Jedi made 66% of what TFA made, which is slightly better than one expects from the 2nd film in a trilogy. To compare, Empire made 63% what Star Wars made, and Clones made 65% of what Phantom made. Part 2s tend to make about 2/3 what the original made. Not to mention that it was, at the time, the 9th highest-grossing film globally, and 6th domestically.

Based on the fact that the first two films have been massively successful at the box office, critically acclaimed, and loved by audiences, how can you possibly call the franchise damaged in any way?

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"I see from your other posts that you aren't interested in facts, and prefer conjecture based on anger and politics, so I'm probably wasting my time here, but for the sake of offering a rational response to your irrational assertions..."

Great, the local narcissist descends from Olympus with self proclaimed words of wisdom.

"No one outside of a few high-level Disney execs or accountants knows what was spent to market a film . . . "

Correct, and my guess is that it would take a Certified Forensic Auditor to find where the losses are buried.

"That said, a movie like Charlies Angels needs a bigger marketing push than a Star Wars movie."

No, CA is a known brand with a 40+ year history in its target market. The primary difference is that CA was not nearly as successful.

"A commercial costs the same, regardless of the movie it's advertising."

No, the real cost of a commercial is in what it costs to run in its target markets, and the success in its conversion rate.

"We have no idea what is being spent to market the new Star Wars film, but it's certainly in the ballpark of $100 million, and at most $150 million, though that figure is highly doubtful."

You admit that you have no idea of the costs involved, and then proceed to give a budget range to make the point that my guesstimates are wrong? That's classic bitch-think right there.

"As for "buying seats," that's pure nonsense. There has been zero evidence . . ."

The nature of unethical/illegal behavior is to conceal the activity. Again, short of a forensic accountant cracking the books, you or I are not going to know how their operation works. You do live on Earth, right? Do you understand anything concerning human nature, much less how it operates at the corporate level? Most don't need to understand the physics of thermodynamics to understand getting burned.

". . . how can you possibly call the franchise damaged in any way?"

That JarJar would mention The Fandom Menace by name is all the proof you need that there are some serious PR problems, that they are concerned with the negative PR profoundly affecting the long term health of both sales and the brand.

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Dude , reshoots are always planned as part of the production budget , they had 2 weeks of reshoots, im sorry but you are truly off your tits, i think the hate you have for star wars has sent you off the rails, so to recap, to shoot this movie cost 300 million, and you think another 300 million was spent on reshoots? Haha its like you're fucking 5

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Uh, no, 3 months of reshoots amounting to 75% of the movie are not planned for.

The YT leaks are at least as soundly based as someone like you coming here and saying that it's all bullshit.

If you have any sound data that's documented, somthing beside your opinion, let's hear it!

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Dude , you go for it , you belive the ,YT leaks to make you feel better and justify your hate if it makes you feel good

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LOL . . . I don't hate it, and I sure as hell didn't pay to see any of it.

I'm here for the entertainment of watching a large multinational corporation shoot itself in the face while pushing its half century long Disney Princess woke gay/trans kiddie-fiddling agenda.

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Or you could sit back , watch the movie, then give your judgement and not act like a little baby

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That's your counter argument . . . 'Baby'?

Going for the shame tactic, again, eh?

. . . how sad.

You seem inordinately concerned with getting people with whom you don't agree on a public forum to shut-up - tell me, you wouldn't happen to be wearing a little pink pussy cap, would you?

Again, you could simply hit the ignore button on my profile, then grab a room for a private circle-jerk with FilmBuff, AtomicGirl, Satan2016, & your other fellow travelers.

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Jeez dude dont get all upset , take a chill pill and talk about other movies if star wars winds you up so much , its just s movie dude

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It's just not working, Sweetheart - go ahead, hit the ignore button, you'll be much happier.

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No, for some strange reason I find you’re ramblings amusing

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Really? Which parts?

Like when I say, the plot lines are so poorly written that they can't help but pull the viewer out of their suspension of disbelief, which is the entire point to a movie?

Or when I say, the characters are so poorly developed and have such predictable arcs that it's impossible for all but the slow-witted to give a shit about any of them?

Or finally when I say, Disney is putting the films on hiatus because the hidden numbers show a loss, and even their block seat purchases thru a variety of shell companies has failed to generate the buzz necessary to get any of the films to break-even after marketing costs?

Or, did you like all 3?

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Hidden numbers , do tell us more ? Haha , is this what its come down too , you hate star wars thst much you convince yourself that the numbers lie and everyone should think like you ? Haha funny

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'Hidden Numbers' simply refers to the accounting practice of 'massaging the numbers' or 'cooking the books'. Companies large and small do it every day.

It's basically the accounting process by which gains are inflated and losses minimized on the financial statements. Larger corporations like General Electric or Enron are/were experts at the practice. For a larger company like Disney, it is no problem to procure an auditor willing to play ball, and to have lobbyists obtain regulatory forbearance from local, state, and federal oversight agencies.

Ya' know, if you're shit stoopid on a particular subject, you might want to consider not responding. I know it's difficult for you because you're so emotionally invested, but thought I'd throw it out there.

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Cheers for the schill propaganda. Now I’m off to read threads based on facts.

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[deleted]

Well, since the last two focused on da' wimmens, we know this one won't have balls and will run like a girl.

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