Third weekend: $263m

It will pass $300m next weekend, not sure if it will reach $400m. Not a flop like Solo.
BO Mojo will have OW weekends for China and Japan on Mon. Will try to estimate the final gross later.

In second place is Fox's Alita: Battle Angel, which managed to outperform expectations last weekend, but this weekend suffered a setback. The film dipped a healthy -58% in its sophomore frame for a $12 million three-day, for a domestic total topping $60 million after 11 days in release. Internationally the film faired a bit better, debuting in China with an estimated $62.2 million for a #1 finish and contributing a significant portion of its overall $92.4 million overseas weekend. At this point Alita has brought in over $202 million internationally for a global cume totaling more than $263 million.


It will still be a flop though. It needs about $400 million just to break even.


Might make a profit on home video and streaming.


Alita will probably perform like Pacific Rim. Pacific Rim was setup to be a series and was a love letter as well as a passion project for Gulliermo del Toro. Production cost for Pacific Rim was $190 and even though it was a fun movie did not play well in the USA but did just enough to get a sequel greenlight.

Alita is also something that Cameron is pushing hard and the Middle Kingdom is a growing market with PR doing $111 in China and $310 international for a total of $411 Million. The soft spot for Alita is the USA market just like for Pacific Rim. I think that Cameron feels he has a winner on his hands and it will have to be built from the ground up with a soft entry followed by a stronger sequel. Cameron wants to desperately create a franchise. The key is will Disney want to finance a sequel because by that time the Fox/Disney buyout will be finalized.


The only difference Pacific Rim had kaiju monsters and massive robots fighting. Alita has Disney eyes. Gone and forgetting in a whimper only saved by a few Chinese sheckles


The only difference Pacific Rim had kaiju monsters and massive robots fighting. Alita has Disney eyes.
More like Anime and Manga eyes. Alita owes very little to Disney now but will after the Disney/Fox merger.


it only gets 25% from China


Official is $265m. Foreign is over 3X domestic. I'm estimating $60-80 and $20m more for those. So over $350m.

Too bad Avatar 2 is almost 2 years off. If it does well Alita 2 would have a better chance.


Fourth weekend: $350m.

Foreign is now 4X domestic. I don't know if that's record for US productions.
I expect another $50m, grossing $400m with $170m budget. Not a flop then.


"grossing $400m with $170m budget. Not a flop then."

**facepalm** Theres no point explaining because you wont understand.

Maybe someone else can try and step in to explain the differences in getting revenue from China and the rest of the world compared to the US and marketing budgets.

Or try and comprehend this

Needs $500 mill to break even. it wont break even.


Like Mitzi said, it needs another $100M to cover marketing costs. Four hundred is not the benchmark anymore dude.


And those Chinese sheckles arent as good as good old US Dollars.

$100 million worth earned in Chinese dabloons or whatever they are called does not translate the same as $100 million domestic. They lose a hefty share of those Chinese shiny pebbles.

The studio only get back around 25% from what i gather so $100 million earned from China is around $25 million earned.

All the fanboys putting on the emphasis that China will save this when most probably any other time they dont give a hoot what China thinks about anything and the fact that on paper $100 miilion earned in China looks great but in reality its only $25 million worth.

Plus that megaboost in advertising money spent on promoting in China


" The studio only get back around 25% from what i gather so $100 million earned from China is around $25 million earned."

I keep hearing this, but don't believe it. Trump just has to add another $10b in sanctions if it's true.


So when a movie ticket is sold domestic, how much do you think goes directly back into the pockets of the studio?

Now apply that to China.

If you think a film that takes $350 million at the box office has a $350 million return you are very very wrong. Now apply that to China.


Not what I claimed, moron.

Domestic gets 50% return. Over at Captain Marvel, a knowledgeable poster says Marvel gets a pretty good return in China. Why should I believe your BULLSHIT 25%?


oh kid, if it was a film you disliked you would be doing a little dance around the 25% thing and holding up as truth. It comes to a film you are fanboying over and suddenly you are suspicious.

Not just of me but many, multiple people reporting that the Chinese government have a deal to release 34 non-Chinese films a year and only giv back 25% of the takings up from a measly 13% before they made the 2012 deal.

So where is your evidence that China gives more back to the studio?

Show me where you found reports that its bullshit?

Im skeptical of your bullshit dude.

>Over at Captain Marvel, a knowledgeable poster says Marvel gets a pretty good return in China.

A poster (chortles), but journalists who work in the industry are to be side eyed and dismissed because it doesn't fit your narrative.

Disney straight up distributes its own films in China. Not that you would look into that or know anything about it. Of course not, but are somehow skeptical because your "knowledge" tells you different.

When theres another mouth to feed down the line like a distrubuter, thats another percent of the box office not going back to the studio so the 25% is again SPLIT. Who knows what kind of deals Disney is making over there compared to other studios.

And figure in that China has been stealing box office money from the studios, not that you would know anything about that with all your deep knowldge of the industry which leads you to be skeptical.

Multiple multiple accounts that the takings are 25% with detailed explanations as to why.

The average cost of a movie ticket in China currently approximates RMB 35 ($5.10), from which

RMB 3.3 ($0.48) is paid as a Value Added Tax (VAT)*
RMB 5 ($0.73) is apportioned to the National Special Funds for the Development of Film.
From the remaining RMB 26.7 ($3.89)

RMB 11.48 ($1.67), or 43% gets divided by the production/distribution companies, with the particular split determined according to their own agreement.
RMB 13.35 ($1.94), or 50% is kept by the individual cinema operator
RMB 1.87 ($0.27), or 7% will be passed on to the theater’s cinema circuit.
*In 2016, an incentive was added, stipulating that theaters which derive two-thirds of their annual revenue from domestic films only have to pay RMB 2.5 ($0.36) as Special Funds.

According to published reports, operating costs of a Chinese cinema are reckoned at roughly 10% for rent, 10% for labor costs, 7-8% energy costs, and 2-3% for marketing. Consequently, the net income from the purchase of an average RMB 35 ticket will be roughly RMB 9.34 ($1.36).

This model applies to domestic Chinese productions. Hollywood imports and Co-Productions are accorded their split (25% and 40%, respectively) from the full revenue, with the distributor and theaters subsequently dividing 91.7% of what’s left over.

About the author Jonathan Papish currently covers the Chinese film industry out of New York City, but previously spent 8 years working in China. Jonathan has been a social media and digital assistant for dGenerate Films, a distributor of Chinese contemporary independent cinema and, most recently, he covered the Chinese market for Jonathan is also an audiovisual Mandarin to English translator and has subtitled several high-profile Mainland films and television programs.[/b]

[b]Under the current agreement, signed in 2012, studios get 25% of gross ticket receipts, half of what theaters usually cough up in other major territories. The agreement also allows just 34 overseas releases to play in China each year, though that quota was exceeded last year. The agreement is due for renegotiation this year, and the studios will be seeking to sweeten the terms.[/b]

[b]Under the current deal, international studios receive 25 per cent of Chinese box office revenues (compared with around 40 per cent in other markets), with the rest going to local co-production studios, Chinese distributors and cinemas.

Now just please, stfu.

$100 million made in China is $25 million. if some of thats not stolen on the way


Fifth weekend: $383m. China $113m.