I think from a mere "getting caught" perspective, their chances of getting caught for mere armed robbery (considering how many pains they went through to cover their tracks) was about 5%. When Waingro killed the guard, and for clearly no reason, he upped their chances of getting caught to 50% since the police would now have access to a lot more resources to investigate them, plus their chances of a life sentence were near 100% if they were caught. By killing the rest of the guards, they maybe reduced their chances of getting caught to 30%.
What I think was dumb was how they handled kicking Waingro out of their group. It was clear De Niro was mad at him and wanted to kill him, and even DOES try to kill him when they went into the parking lot. This doesn't make a lot of sense though as De Niro did advocate paying him off just a few minutes earlier. If the plan was to kill Waingro all along, why be hostile with him in the diner? It would have made a lot more sense for De Niro to "play along" and welcome Waingro to the team, and then kill him later when Waingro had guard down. Either that or pay him off and let him take the full HEAT on his own, though that would have risked the group getting identified if Waingro was ever later captured or turned himself in and took a plea deal. So it would have made a lot more sense (and been a lot more professional) had De Niro just been patient and acted understanding, then just killed Waingro later.
It also doesn't really make sense as otherwise De Niro is a total professional throughout the movie aside from his ditching his escape attempt at the end to get his revenge on Waingro. I guess it is consistent, but at the same time not logical behavior. Does he just lose all professionalism and higher reasoning when it comes to his sheer hatred of and desire to kill Waingro? He really doesn't like people who bring unnecessary HEAT into his life...
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