It has to be said that DP2 is doing better internationally than the first so we could be seeing similar WW results to the first one in the end.
^^^^
kinda...but DP2 opens in 99% of its markets last week...It doesnt have any major ones to open in....
DP1 Made 420 Million overseas, DP2 is going to end extremely close to that...It could be anything from 410 to 450 M...
Plus even if DP2 did have a big increase overseas(which its not) Its Domestic Drop is going to be So large Its not gonna have any chance at matching DP1.
We'll get a great idea where DP2 is gonna land overseas by Sunday
DP2 was at 206 Million Overseas heading into the Weekend...I think It will be at around 290 to 320 Million by Sunday...If that happens, were looking at a Overseas gross either slightl less than DP1 or maybe matching DP1
Domestically DP2 is gonna be around 220 Million by Monday....With a 65% drop this weekend, we can probably expect 55 to 60% drop from here on out...
So DP2 made 44 Million this Weekend(3day)....
that Means Maybe 18 to 20 Million Next Weekend.
Then 7 to 9 Million
300 Million domestically seem like a long shot now.
Putting were "fighting" aside for a second, I'm not just saying this to try to rub in I was right....this is just me being real...Fox Made a Disastrous Move Moving this up 1 Week before SOLO...
DP2 should not be collapsing like this, this is because of an AWFUL release date, they crippled DP2.
I'm gonna have to do a little research but this may be one of the best(or worst) examples I've ever seen on A Studio Picking a bad release date.
I also need to do some reasearch but I'm not sure theres ever been a CBM getting over 82% on RT, Get an "A" cinemascore and Drop 65% in week 2...(Hell I'm not sure Any Blockbuster has)...
The point is, This is almost Unprecedented, to have a movie as well liked as DP2, To drop like a stone like this, Its the result of A CRIPPLING release date.
but, I must say, this SOLO box office woke me up, I'm now with you, and and clearly believe despite the first 3 SW films having the Appearance of Universally Praise and Love....I think its clear now those films were very decisive..and Split audiences...to have drops like Solo, That has to be the case
So with that being said, We may need to consider, Maybe WOM for DP2 isnt very good, despite having the Appearance of Universally Praise
DP2 was basically just a copy of DP1 where they tried to "One Up DP1"...Reynolds and producers are on record saying that.
thats why Miller left, because he wanted to take DP2 in a new direction with a Bigger, Deeper story, But Reynolds wanted to stick with what audiences liked in The first and Up it...
History has not been kind to franchises that do that, Box office goes down quickly...Audiences Get tired of the the exact same thing again...
The perfect example of this(and IMO its really scary for DP2) is The Hangover franchise.
The first 2 Handover films and DP films are nearly identical....Both Rated R comedy that stuck GOLD for thier Raunchy over the top comedy....
Both Franchise Literally Tried to do the exact same thing in The sequel but "ONE UP" it, just take whatever Audiences liked in the first, whatever gags worked in the movies, and repeat them in The sequels but UP the Absurdity(Deadpools Baby Legs is the best example of this, In the first he a Baby Hand, They just did the same gag but amplified it) theres at least 15 examples of this in DP2 and 50 In The Hangover 2...
Other examples of R rated franchises that did the same thing are The Expendables,The Matrix, Ted, and American Pie....they all Just tried to "One Up" The Original, do the exact same thing but MORE...
They All Had Extreme Box office declines where Audiences grew tired quickly...
DP2 May just not have very good word of Mouth, Audiences just may not be recommending, when they talk about it might be like "Ya it was good but Just like the first"....there may be a real...."If you saw the first, You saw the 2nd" type WOM going, Not Bad WOM ...But theres nothing new about DP2 and no reason to talk great about...
DP3 or X-Force may need to really shake things up and go in a New direction, something that gets audiences excited...
If we get something similar to DP1 and 2.....
Box office could Plummet...
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QueenFanUSA (3375)
6 years ago
Great post, bill. I think both movies crippled each other to a certain extent. Forbes is calling this "mutually assured destruction". Going to the movies is expensive and there is sizable overlap in the target audience here amongst adults.
I've felt the writing on the wall for quite some time in the case of Star Wars and fan reactions. Personally, I've loved the Disney Star Wars movies but I could tell something was afoot after the Force Awakens had a year or so to settle in and there was so much HATE.
Bottom line: DP2 is still going to be hugely profitable but Solo is going to incur heavy losses for Disney in the hundreds of millions of dollars right on the heels of A Wrinkle in Times loss of hundreds of millions of dollars.
Definitely going to gobble up a LOT of BPs and AIW's profits. It's sad, really.
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billbrown7071 (3193)
6 years ago
Bottom line: DP2 is still going to be hugely profitable but Solo is going to incur heavy losses for Disney in the hundreds of millions of dollars right on the heels of A Wrinkle in Times loss of hundreds of millions of dollars.
Definitely going to gobble up a LOT of BPs and AIW's profits. It's sad, really.
^^^^^^
annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd queens back
I'm just gonna give you this one...Because quite frankly I think you need it....I could argue it and turn this statement on you like I usually do...
But I got to be honest....Its been quite LONELY without you the last week....You took such a beating last weekend on DP2 and then disappeared and refused to talk about DP2 in any way..
I'm just happy too have you back trolling again...
Damn it, I just cant not respond
Ok get ready this is gonna be painful
AIWs set to make over 700 Million in Profit.....Black Panther set to make 500 Million + in Profit
SOLO looks to make between 500 to 600 Million(A FLOP), But LOSES between 80 to 130 Million should occur(Not HUNDREDS of Millions)
remember JL had the exact same Budget, Made 658 M and LOST WB 60 M
SO your "HUNDREDS of MILLIONS" is clearly a desperate exaggeration(If SOLO Makes 350 to 400 M, then we can revisit your HUNDREDS of millions claims)
but lets live in the real world now and Asumes the worst, Lets say SOLO loses 130 Million
"Definitely going to gobble up a LOT of BPs and AIW's profits. It's sad, really."
are you ready to have this ^^^statement obliterated
ummmmmm whats 130 Million out of 1.2 Billion +???
Less than 10% right? ya....
lol this is what I'm talking about queen, YOU do not think before trolling, your trolling doesnt make sense
Yes it sounds good to say " Definitely going to gobble up a LOT of BPs and AIW's profits. It's sad, really."
but had you done any research or thought before posting, You could have found the data where DEADLINE is reporting AIW and Black Panther are making Disney over 1.2 Billion In Profit you could have easily done the math then a realized SOLO Might cost Disney Maybe 10% of the profit made from AIW and BP....
you could have then said "Definitely going to gobble up A TINY % of BPs and AIW's profits. It's not that big of a deal, really"
Instead you decided to troll without thinking and made a statement that LITERALLY doesnt make sense....
Bottom line: DP2 is still going to be hugely profitable
^^^^
Its going to make a good profit...but not nearly as much as you would think(again had you did any research)
DP1 was made on a 60 M Budget, Grossed 783 Million and Made Fox a profit on 322 M....
DP2 has twice the Budget, and Will make between 625 to 675 Million....resulted in A profit between 150 to 200 Million....
quite simply put, FOX has to be disappointed....They are having Drastic DECLINES with DP2 in every possible way with it only being the second film...
DP2 is still a hit, 150 to 200 M is a good result, But you can rest assured its not what Fox was at all expecting, and now with DP2 completely collapsing, Fox has to be asking, how much is the next one going to decline?
to put the final Nail in your coffin...
Just to be clear, You just tried to claim and spin it to where it seems like FOX is happier and in a better position than Disney...
lol 150 to 200 M in Profit from drastically Declining franchise DP2......against 1.2 Billion In Profit from AIW and BP from a franchise thats never been hotter....take a minute, let that sink it and embrace the failure you just created...
PS
I've felt the writing on the wall for quite some time in the case of Star Wars and fan reactions. Personally, I've loved the Disney Star Wars movies but I could tell something was afoot after the Force Awakens had a year or so to settle in and there was so much HATE.
^^^^^
any reason you couldnt see the writing on The wall for DP2?
As I clearly "seen The writing on The wall for DP2 but Missed it with SW"...
You seem to be intentionally avoiding that fact that YOU completely missed on DP2 and ONLY bragging about your incredible foresight to see SW problems?
I think you are still deeply SCARRED at what happened last weekend and truly cant even talk about it yet
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QueenFanUSA (3375)
6 years ago
I said Solo and Wrinkle will gobble up "a LOT" of BP's and AIW's profits. How is that in ANY WAY debatable?
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NorrinRad (5056)
6 years ago
Definitely going to gobble up a LOT of BPs and AIW's profits. It's sad, really.
It's the subjective commentary mixed with the objective fact that turns your comment into a troll piece of fiction.
Wrinkle's losses you GREATLY exaggerate and the jury is out on Solo. The balance sheet for Disney will be a strong net positive rather than the sad reality that you see. Rather than half full or half empty you're suggesting and painting with a brush that makes it seem as if the blood is red with extreme losses. As Bill has stated there is NO WAY that the over achievement of BP and the stellar AIW box office and resultant euphoria from that position will be dulled and or muted by Wrinke and Solo.
If you said something meaningful as to the overall health and trajectory of the Star Wars franchise under Kennedy that might be a statement warranting a "sad, really" comment. Losses are never good but you painting it as "sad" is WAY over the top.
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