Just went there and up popped a window asking if I was interested in learning more about it and links to various pages on the CDC site.
What I don't understand is why this particular virus is causing such a huge stir. Every year we have new strains of flu virus -- some worse than others -- and every year there are some deaths as a result. AFAIK the number of deaths so far isn't out of the norm.
the information that we have right now suggests that it's quite a bit more severe that the seasonal flu. it appears to have higher rates of infectiousness, and even at the lower end of the estimations it seems to be about 5 times at deadly as the seasonal flu, and it appears to require much higher rates of hospitalization for people who are severely impacted by it. i think it's correct to take it extremely seriously.
it's not a society killer or anything silly like that, but it absolutely could overwhelm our health systems in the short to medium term and that could have very bad consequences - not just for the people who get sick, but for the people who have other health problems at a time when there are enormous strains put on our systems. the reports we're seeing out of italy, where it seems their health care system is breaking at the seams, supports what might happen.
so i am fully on board with people staying home, social distancing, cancelling the boston st patrick's day parade, all of it.
good information at this link:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
I was shocked that the Boston parade was cancelled and that's when it really hit home how seriously this is being taken because that parade is a big deal around here! Now the question turns to what will happen with the Boston Marathon now less than 6 weeks away. That event makes the parade seem trivial by comparison and means a lot of revenue and prestige to Boston so the city is caught between a rock and a hard place on this one. I'm scheduled to run it and the uncertainty of it is driving me crazy...especially since I have an 18 mile training run set up for Saturday and I really don't want to bother if the race is to be cancelled lol
sharei'm sure they'll wait a little before pulling the plug, but i would be very surprised if that went through, and i hope they do cancel it. i think it would be irresponsible not to. there will be all kinds of serious economic shock and all kinds of inconvenience, but it's really critical at this point to flatten the curve of infection.
it's almost certainly a fact that millions & millions of people in the u.s. are going to catch the virus - but if we spread those infections out over a year rather than over a month or two, that will make an enormous difference in allowing people who are severely impacted by it to get proper medical care. it's the difference between having a ventilator for someone who's really ill, and that's incredibly important.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/science/coronavirus-curve-mitigation-infection.html?auth=login-email&login=email
i'm actually training to run the local half marathon this june, and i wouldn't be surprised if that doesn't happen too, and given the circumstances i guess i hope it doesn't. but we'll have to see where we're at around that time.
as an aside, do you mind if i ask what kind of time you run? i'm a bit of a slow-poke myself - my best 1/2 time is 1hr53m, but i'm no athlete, lol.
3 days ago I would've said there was no chance it would be cancelled. 2 days ago after they pulled the plug on the parade I started to think it might be cancelled. Yesterday, after the governor declared as state of emergency for Mass I because convinced there was no way it was going to happen. At least not as planned (whether it's postponed or they decide to open it only to elites may still be possible).
I'm no speed demon. My last long run (17.5 miles) 2 weeks ago clocked in at 2hr50m. I can do a half in about the same as you but at 45 I prob wouldn't push it beyond that. I've run the Boston marathon before (didn't crack 5 hours) but I didn't train very much for it and this year I was really throwing myself into it so everything that's happening is really disappointing. But I totally get it and I know it's probably the right decision. I really wish they'd make a decision this week because the idea of an 18+ mile run just on the slim possibility that the marathon will go forward sounds truly awful!
More info: https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year
This Is How Many People Die From the Flu Each Year, According to the CDC
“While everyone is in a panic about the coronavirus (officially renamed COVID-19 by the World Health Organization), there's an even deadlier virus many people are forgetting about: the flu.
Flu season is hitting its stride right now in the US. So far, the CDC has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000.
The CDC also estimates that up to 31 million Americans have caught the flu this season, with 210,000 to 370,000 flu sufferers hospitalized because of the virus.”
with all due respect, the website you linked currently has an article about kourtney kardashian on its home page.
that said, at the time that article was published (feb 11), they were i suppose generally right in that the seasonal flu was the greater danger to the average american. the flu is no joke. it makes lots of people really sick, & kills a good number of people every year. so absolutely, take it serious, get your seasonal shot, all that good stuff.
but the coronova virus very likely poses a higher risk.
there are wide range of estimates, and it's difficult to know where it's going to end up, and we don't want to be chicken littles. this is not going to wreck civilization.
but we absolutely should not be minimizing our risk either. there is a range of possible outcomes, and it seems the most optimistic scenario is that the virus will be contained in north america, and it will hit us like a slightly harsh flu season & 30k will die. that's bad, but it's the kind of thing we go through somewhat regularly and we could handle it without too much fuss, though there would no doubt be stress on healthcare systems.
that's the rosey scenario. at the more pessimistic end, the famous harvard epidemiologist marc lipsittch estimates that 40-70% of the world will be infected over the coming year. if you say the u.s. will do better than that and take half of that lower bound, that will get us about 65m americans infected. and if the lower estimate of the case fatality rate of 0.5% is accurate, then we would be looking at approximately 327,000 fatalities related to the virus.
& that doesn't get into the hospitalizations, the resources that would be stretched. current estimates show that about 19% of people who test positive fot the virus have severe or critical reactions, which in normal circumstances would require hospitalization. that would equate to 12milion hospitalizations in the u.s. the u.s. currently has about 924 thousand hospital beds, and about 2/3s are in use at any given moment. so if these projections come to pass, we will see enormous strain put on health systems.
this may not come to pass, but it absolutely is within the range of reasonable projected outcomes, and it would be really reckless not to take this seriously.
look to italy, where the country is on lockdown and the hospitals are filled to the brim. we are not special or so different from italy, and what happened there could happen here.
so i think it's clear that we should take all the suggested steps to stop transmission - stay home, work from home if possible, avoid large gatherings, cancel large events, etc.
You are correct and I posted as much to Cat. All new news is becoming old news fast.
shareThanks for that link. I couldn't read it all. Too much info, but good info.
Reading the list of symptoms, a closely defined list of symptoms specific to this virus, has me thinking I already had it. It did start with a scratchy throat, no runny nose, developed a dry (and severe) cough, lasted about two weeks, was utterly exhausted, and I had shortness of breath unlike anything I've ever had. Never had a cold or flu that wasn't accompanied by a runny nose, either.
If it is the flu I had, that means no one knows the virus is already here. I don't know what to do. Feel like I should get tested or something to find out but don't know who to call. Found out recently my doctor moved out of state and I don't have another one. Could a test determine it anyway if I had it a month ago? Do I want to go to a doctor's office or clinic?
Anyway, I appreciate all the info. I have been cautious. Monday I cancelled an important appointment. I'm doing social distancing and mostly staying at home. So I'm not taking it lightly, but did wonder why this is causing such a furore when my understanding was it's no more deadly than a usual bad flu virus.
i'm not sure what to say about whether they'd be able to still find traces of it after a month. the current news says that they're limiting testing to people they know have had direct exposure, so they probably wouldn't test you even if they can detect that.
I've been trying to find that info. Nothing about it on the CDC's web site. The main reason I care is I think it's important for the proper authorities to know if it arrived here over a month ago, and also that I recovered from it.
I've made a call and a nurse is supposed to call me back. I suspect you're right, and they're probably inundated with people panicking thinking they have it anyway.
let us know what you hear. i'm very curious as to what they'll come back and say. at least you're feeling better now...
shareI probably should have told the receptionist the symptoms I had, because they are pretty specific. I'm probably low priority to get a call back.
I was shocked to see that on the CDC's web site, they too only have very general symptoms listed: fever, and two others. So probably the nurse I'll speak to won't know either.
WTH doesn't the CDC have that important info on their web site?! I've never heard of Our World In Data, and bet most people haven't either.
Oh yeah, I'm 98% well now. Thank god, because it was pretty bad. I don't know if I'd have immunity from it if that is what I had, or not.
She called and, as I suspected, wasn't especially interested, or very educated on it. Sounded like they weren't even well set up to test people who currently have symptoms.
She directed me to a new web page put out by the county she said was comprehensive and that there was a number to call on it. But I'd already called the number and there's no way to speak to an actual person. It's all one-way communication. I get it, but I do feel this is important and I've no way to get the info to the right person/people.
That is, if that's what I had.
A part of of my job is to organize events to gather people into my senior home and outside of my senior home to make some marketing but now they cancelled all my events for the next coming months so how the fuck am I supposed to do sales now.
World’s going crazy
I've had a scratchy throat for a few days. Should I hide in my basement?
shareNo, that's probably allergies, I get that too, it's pretty lousy
You are fine as are most of us
I was sure I was Ok because the first thing you get is fever.. No fever.
shareYou're fine then
The problem is all of these panicking wimps that are wiping out the grocery store shelves and nuking the stock market
It's a minor blip, we need to hold course...people are total crybabies and they wreck everything with their spazzy baby tantrums
Have you tried finding hand sanitizers, disinfecting bathroom cleaning wipes, disinfecting sprays, etc.? People are going bonkers! Why the run on toilet paper? The media hype is what’s fueling the hysteria and it’s having a devastating effect on the economy.
shareSlow news cycle, the American Presidential politics are extremely boring, Weinstein is going away for a long deserved while...the endless cable news circus needs something to glom onto with no big stories going on
The boring old annual flu will kill way more people in the same time frame...I have Corona fatigue...I simply do not care anymore, frankly I didn't care at all
Wienstein this makes me so mad. People say he got what he deserved but he is 67. This is proof there is no god. People just get away with terrible things , not repercussions.
shareI think it's because COVID-19 has a higher mortality rate than the flu; hence, the hysteria.
shareSounds like it has the potential to turn into a Spanish Flu kind of situation, worst case scenario. It has a higher mortality rate than your regular seasonal flu, but there seems to be a lot of disagreement over how high. And it's pretty contagious.
Too many unknowns right now to make any kind of definite predictions. But I think they are right to be cautious and try to contain it.
Cat, you’re correct. See my reply to damosuzuki.
shareThanks, Ksp. In reading Damo's link, I now think I may well have had it already.
shareMy link put it into perspective. Folks are going bonkers over this while forgetting about how many die from the flu each year...12,000 to 60,000.
shareYes, that's the point I was making in the OP. But apparently this really is different in how quickly it's been spreading, and in its mortality rate.
shareApparently new info has been released agreeing with your assessment. My link is older. The following gives us much needed info and maps. The US is discussing about a Declaration of Emergency.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2
Thanks. I'm sticking with the CDC's site and the one Damo posted. That page is 5 days old and it appears with this virus the most up to date info is critical because things are changing so quickly.
shareThis site doesn't give any advice but it does show current numbers:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The thing about Covid-19 is we don't know enough about it, it spreads easily, and there's no vaccine yet. Seasonal flu has a vaccine. Yes, the effectiveness varies a lot, but at least doctors know what they're dealing with.
There's a ton of info on that site. Easier for me to digest because a lot of it's in graphs.
shareI don’t blame you as it seems to be changing every hour! Yes, I didn’t realize that page was 5 days old. By the time I read a new report and post it...it’s old news. So, I deem the best all of us can do is check for ourselves. That’s all any of us can do to stay up to date. Hope you’re feeling better. Here’s a smile for you! 🤗
shareYep, the info on this one is changing fast. Well, at least we all know that now.
Thanks, Ksp, I am 98% better. I got it over a month ago but a few things are lingering a bit. Thanks for the smile :). Stay well! 💕
I’m currently in Florida, Osceola County. Look how Florida is keeping us up to date. Very good information.
http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/COVID-19/
I’m going to check Mississippi where husband, daughter and Miss Molly are
Oh, I assumed you were home with your husband, Miss M, and possibly your daughter. Yes, FL has done a good job with updated info. Similar here in CA, and the county. They're updating it once a day and give the time.
sharehttp://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/coronavirus-is-the-wolf/
matt ridley on the virus:
Coronavirus is the wolf on the loose
Published on: Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
This time the warnings are not overdone
My article for Reaction:
In Aesop’s fable about the boy who cried “Wolf!”, the point of the tale is that eventually there was a wolf, but the boy was not believed because he had given too many false alarms. In my view, the Covid-19 coronavirus is indeed a wolf, or at least has the potential to be one. Many people, including President Trump, think we are over-reacting, because so many past scares have been exaggerated. I think that’s wrong.
Coming from you, a friend said to me the other day, that’s scary. I am known as an obsessive and serial debunker of false alarms. I have been at it for almost 40 years ever since I realised as a science journalist in the 1980s that acid rain was being wildly overblown as a threat to forests (I was right). This scepticism has served me well. I did not believe that mad cow disease would kill hundreds of thousands of people, as some “experts” were claiming in the mid 1990s. In the end just 177 died. Likewise, I refused to panic over bird flu, swine flu, SARS or ebola.
remainder of article here:
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/coronavirus-is-the-wolf/
Thank you. That's an excellent article.
shareThank you! Excellent thought provoking-article!
share