while that might be true in the business world....
Its NOT True in Hollywood...
When a Studios spends hundreds of millions of dollars on a Tentpole film ...The Expectations is to Make HUNDREDS of Millions in Profit....
look no further than the aftermath of BvS for Proof WB was extremely disappointed....
Within 2 weeks of BvS's release, Zack Snyder was DEMOTED and 2 new people were brought into run the DCEU branch.
WB immediately went into FULL Panic mode regarding their upcoming release Suicide Squad and started Drastically Interfering with the film in Post Production to try and change the "dark" tone of the film after BvS's backlash where they literally hired a completely new Editing company to come in a make a different cut of the film to lighten the tone.
Batman was a proven Billion Dollar character and Property before Snyder got a hold of Him....When MOS under performed, WB Literally Canceled an Already announced MOS 2 and Brought In Batman in up The Box office and it resulted in basically NOTHING...
When The Last 2 Batman films BOTH make over 1 Billion + that feature ONLY Batman....and Then You have a Film that features Batman,Superman and Wonder Woman and It cant get within 100 M of 1 Billion...Thats Disaster.
I absolutely understand what you are saying about The Business World....But In Hollywood, Its different in cases
When you have an Avengers movie break box office records in 2012 and gross 1.5 Billion that results in WB doing a complete about face and NOW wanting a Cinematic Universe....and BvS is supposed to be The answer to The Avengers....and It results in HALF The Box Office.....Thats disaster
and finally Not ONLY was the film BvS itself A disappointment that made no where near The money or profit WB wanted....But It KILLED A future Property, IT KILLED WB most important future Property in Justice League...
BvS was so awful, such a disappointment, There was no going forward with Justice League after BvS...
In Hollywood, when your dealing with Properties like the DC characters..and your trying to copying/rival what Marvel Studios is doing with The MCU....
BvS Could be The single biggest creative failure and disappointment in Hollywood history...When you consider The Damage it done, The characters it hurt, The Franchises it KILLED and MONEY It could have Made but didnt!
BvS should have been a 1.3 to 1.5 Billion dollar film...that Spring boards us into 3 or 4 Justice League films that was make 1.4 Billion + a film...
Instead, BvS KILLED that JL franchise after 1 film, and was so Hated, WB is rebooting and recasting BOTH Batman and Superman....
I do not care how you try to spin it, thats literally the biggest Disaster is Hollywood history...
as you your overall point of " Ask ANY fund exec if they'll park 400 mil with you, if you guarantee them 103 mil in profit after a reasonable length of time (2 years?). They'll FIGHT to give you their money."
This makes sense^
But what If before the Investment, The Person Guaranteed, Literally 100% guaranteed, If you invest 400 Million with us, I guarantee you a return of 500 Million .....
But then That return ends up being only being 20% of what you were Guaranteed and Then as a direct result of this disappointing deal, Your Next deal which you were already locked in on with same people, result in you losing 70 Million +....
lol that what happened here.....
WB never would have Spend 400 Million + on BvS if they knew if was going to ONLY result in 100 M in Profit....They were 1000% certain by adding Batman, That Guaranteed a 1 Billion dollar +gross
right Now Theres a reason why WB hired Walter Hamada....and Its exactly to avoid another BvS situation....
Walter Hamada is known for keeping budget low...
Spending 400 Million on a film in Hollywood and ONLY making 100 Million Is not worth it....especially when most films have back end in pay outs
Tentpoles Films need to have smaller budgets, or Make HUNDREDS of Millions in Profit
If Batmans Budget was 200 Million Or something....Then fine....but 400 M....Disaster!
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Goliard (1413)
5 years ago
FULL DISCLOSURE: I skimmed your reply; don't have the kind of time you (clearly) do. And I get that BO is your thing; you know the ins and outs well.
I'll just address a couple things, and I promise I'm outta this conversation ;)
ALL I wanted to point out is the characterization of a 25% ROI as "terrible" is ridiculous. By ANY estimation. . .and yes, I got the gist of your arguments, and I get that you're stipulating "terrible for the movie biz."
There's NO WAY I'm letting you people in on what I do for a living. You're all lunatics; I'm not that brave. Suffice it to say I've worked in entertainment for a Long Time, and I will tell you WITHOUT QUESTION, *none* of us know what Hollywood really profits. . .ESPECIALLY with these absurdly huge films.
True Story: the Hollywood machine is the ONLY collective that the IRS will NOT go after. They go after CRIMINALS before the dreaded Hollywood accountants. The stories (in front of and behind the scenes) are the stuff of legends. Conclusion: while your research is impressive, it's never going to be more than a part of the story.
That said, I'll repeat: your assessment of balanced expectations is largely correct. This industry attracts Large Personalities, and they sometimes expect absurd returns. But as alienzen points out, there are a Lot of moving pieces (sponsorships, product placement, merchandising, future ROI, profit sharing, favor trading, International Theatre Concessions relationships, ego, etc, etc. . .) and the picture is considerably more subtle than a straight ahead examination of box office can describe.
Without question BvS was a disappointment, critically and financially. But that's more a matter of envy & unrealistic expectations, than actual dollars and cents.
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billbrown7071 (3193)
5 years ago
I think were in agreement on most everything....
I just think you are drastically under estimating how Business in run in Hollywood...
and specifically what the expectations were for BvS...
again I completely agree that, Pretty much anywhere in the world, a 100 Million dollar profit on a 400 M investment is good...
but not when you apply that to A DC Movie Blockbuster that was expected to gross 700 Million more and featured 3 of your biggest possible ICONIC characters...
Not when your rival just spent 130 Million dollars on D list character in Ant-Man that Netted them 104 Million in Profit...
Not when The 2 Last Batman movies that featured ONLY Batman Netted WB HUNDREDS of Millions in Profit and both topped 1 Billion...
The facts are BvS started out with a 300 Million budget and then it BALLOONED to over 400 M+....WB ONLY invested that much Money because They were certain They had a film that would make over 1 Billion...
and The thing you are completely NOT taking into account is....The 103 Million Profit WB made on BvS was completely Unacceptable because they Had MASSIVE Back end pay outs...
WB would Never have spend 400 M + on BvS KNOWING it was only going to make 103 Million in Profit because They Knew Much of that Profit would have to be paid out to Talent including the director,actors and producers...
Unlike Marvel Studios who locks thier actors into Minimum 6 picture contracts and Goes for out of the box upcoming directors that dont get Back end or HUGE upfront fees...
WB Had HUGE A list stars to pay out on BvS....
They ONLY possible way It makes sense more WB to Spend 400 M+ on BvS knowing this, Is if they were certain BvS was going to do over 1 Billion and maybe as high as 1.5 B...
I read reports where BOTH Snyder and Affleck were getting 10 to 20% back end pay outs...
In the Business world, 103 Million on a 400 M Investment is good....
In Hollywood, Its Literally DEATH!
that is why within 2 weeks of BvS release, WB had already Demoted The person running the DCEU branch and Director of The film....
That is why The went into panic mode and tried to Change All Future upcoming films...
Like You I would never attempt to TELL You about Your Business and what you do...You have forgotten more than I'll ever know about Investments in the real world....
but I've followed box office for 15 years....and when we are strictly talking Investments when in Comes to box office in Hollywood, There are things you not only arent seeing but things I can tell you dont even know
as for your statement above of "Ask ANY fund exec if they'll park 400 mil with you, if you guarantee them 103 mil in profit after a reasonable length of time (2 years?). They'll FIGHT to give you their money."
2 weeks after BvS's release, WB had a meeting with their execs where they demanded Snyder be fired because They had no confident Justice League could succeed after BvS.
The execs and Investors were Horrified about investing 250 Millon + in Justice League after BvS.
The ONLY reason why Snyder wasnt fired was because they did the math and knew it was costs them over 100 Million dollars to delay Justice League Production...
The Point is....The Investment Your saying they "would FIGHT to Give you Money for"....resulted in A Meeting where they ALL WANTED OUT and did NOT want any Part of the NEXT INVESTMENT but were FORCED into it
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