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After Avengers:IW and Avengers:4 Marvel/Disney needs to rein their movie business in.

posted 6 years ago by NorrinRad (5046)
6 replies | jump to latest

Issac Perlmutter was a financial penny-pincher and wanted to keep budgets low, expectations low and profits high. Look where Marvel/Disney is today and in my opinion they have reached the tipping point of diminishing returns on dollars invested. This financial model is no longer sustainable and is becoming a creativity distraction.

Captain Marvel will be deemed a failure if it doesn't out gross BP and BP2 will be deemed a failure if it doesn't out gross Avengers:IW? The alleged or rumored budgets for A:IW and A:4 combined is greater than 1 Billion dollars. If both films collectively fail to gross 3.5 to 4 Billion dollars they will be failures financially? Why would Disney/Marvel place themselves in such a Catch-22 when they have control over this beast.

It is time to scale back, go small and invest in characters and world building and not event films.

BP was a much more intimate film in execution and storytelling but became an event film that can not be duplicated to that magnitude. BP isn't a formula with an expected result that can be copied and replicated.

Marvel/Disney and the industry can not sustain multiple event films each month or quarter or trimester. The consumption habits of audiences have changed and this unholy alliance on 3D, IMAX big set piece movies will lose interest. They are no longer unique no matter how good the story is. As a movie collector I can tell you that there are few big action movies that I want to re-watch and relive an experience.

My first experience with the size and scope of the Star Wars opening shot has been completely muted by what has come since. Even Lucas beefed up his own trilogy once the technology allowed. No longer am I the target audience but newer viewers are underwhelmed because they have seen so much so early in their viewing lives.

Thoughts?

[–] FilmBuff (6700) 6 years ago

I agree that relying on CGI and a constant upping of the ante when it comes to the size, scope, and frequency of action scenes has to hit a wall sometime soon, and we may, hopefully, see a return to story-telling as the focus of films. I disagree in that I see Marvel as already being something of an outlier in this regard. While they certainly do have the explosions and CGI-fueled action sequences, all their films are built around dialogue and character development/interaction, and their central themes are not superhero vs. powerful enemy as much as they are more complex tales. Themes such as government control vs. independence, local vs. global, one's duty to the world vs. one's desire to protect oneself are at the core of films. Compare Marvel's films to any of the other major action franchises, which rely on far simpler stories-- giant robots vs giant monsters, giant monster vs. other giant monster, humans vs. aliens/giant robots/giant monsters-- and you start to understand why Marvel's films have been so successful. If you take the Transformers out of a Transformers film, you have nothing left. Take the superpowers out of any Marvel film, and not much changes.

I also disagree that if/when Captain Marvel earns far less than Black Panther or Infinity War, anyone will consider it a failure. Anything more than $200-300 million domestically is considered a hit for a Marvel film, and the fact that a few have achieved historic mega-success doesn't mean that all future films must do likewise. Even Infinity War-- if it hits $1.2 billion globally will be a slam dunk. It will almost certainly do better, but no one, at least no one speaking reasonably, will say it "failed" if it "only" brings in $1.2 billion.

[–] NorrinRad (5046) 6 years ago

I wasn't really referring to an over reliance on CGI but large battles, multiple ships, earth shattering, universe shattering consequences. Even the frequency of action scenes is not at issue even though movies like the Raid and Raid 2 can become quite numbing when done with high frequency with or without stakes. Not a fan of violence porn just for violence's sake or even action just for the sake of action that doesn't move a story forward.

Story telling is inherent to me with the MCU and this "Long-Form" story-telling narrative, but this long-play is off putting for many and lacks an entry point for new fans. If long-form story telling needs to yield to some large grand set piece conclusion it will become stale.

I agree that for Marvel their films are not about showcasing their powers as the hook but showcasing the character and all of their ups and downs. A:IW and A:4 will truly be successful if it is indeed about this larger than the universe villain of Thanos on an intimate and personal level. The next arc for Marvel and the MCU will for me have to be about new characters (both heroes and villains) taking us through personal journeys and oh by the way they might or might not involve large scale events of mayhem.

The whole success criteria is already set in place for negative critiques. Every movie can't cost $300 million in order to be commercially viable and the industry is set on comparisons. Most investors want ever increasing Box offices as a measure of success or franchises spanning predictable years of release. BP2 will not make as much as BP1 and just exchange the word failure for Disappointing and you will tap into the industry mindset. The measurement bar for what is or isn't successful is too often driven by comparative Box Office.

Infinity War at $1.2 Billion WW will be a disappointment/failure based on it costing roughly $500 Million. BP didn't cost that much, made roughly $1.4 Billion on probably $300 to $350 Million. Thus the comparison

[–] AP (5259) 6 years ago

Why would anyone consider Captain Marvel a failure if it doesn't outgross Black Panther? Some Marvel movies have a higher gross than others but none of them are considered a failure. They all made profits. That's the bottom line.

[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 6 years ago

Captain Marvel will be deemed a failure if it doesn't out gross BP and BP2 will be deemed a failure if it doesn't out gross Avengers:IW? The alleged or rumored budgets for A:IW and A:4 combined is greater than 1 Billion dollars. If both films collectively fail to gross 3.5 to 4 Billion dollars they will be failures financially? Why would Disney/Marvel place themselves in such a Catch-22 when they have control over this beast.

^

I'm sorry but there simply 1 thing even remotely true about this statement....

NO ONE Will expect Captain Marvel to gross anything Close to Black Panther...Not 1 box office site, box office Analyst, not 1 person at Disney will expect that...

If you really wanted to put the absolutely highest possible expectations on Captain Marvel, I guess the ONLY comparison would be Wonder Woman....Maybe, MAYBE, some might think if Captain Marvel is Truly Great, a best case scenario would be A box office result similar to Wonder Woman

but realistically, Captain Marvels expectations are the same as all the other Debuting MCU characters...A Box office result anywhere between 500 to 700 Million would be deemed A Success and would guarantee a sequel.

I think Your Black Panther comparison is just not even in the realm of realistic, first Black Panther Debuted and had A HUGE role in A Billion dollar + film in Civil War before his Solo film, and then we all know BP caught fire and drastically over performed due to its Cultural Impact....Captain Marvel Wont have either of these advantages...

I would almost guarantee Marvel Studios Will keep the Budget of CM between 160 to 175 M....meaning anything between 500 to 700 M is a HIT....

Next Your Avengers 3 and 4 Financial thoughts aren't correct either...

It was just reported, The Exact Budget for AIW came in at 300 M(Not the 500 M that was rumored)..we have to assume AIW4 Will be around the same amount.

and finally you are correct about Avengers films becoming too expensive, But what your not getting is, Marvel Studios has already laid the ground work and Got it covered going forward...

The ONLY reason and way its possible for Marvel Studios to make 2 films like Avengers 3 and 4 that feature at least 22 Heroes with some of the biggest and most expensive Actors in Hollywood.....Is Marvel Studios incredibly Smart business decisions to cast Unknown and out of the box actors/actresses and Lock them into Minimum contracts that are for 3 to 6 films, The actors have then went on to become HUGE stars, demand HUGE money, Yet for the most part they get paid very little to appear in these Avengers films

But that Is OVER...Hemsworth, RDJ, Scarjo and Evans contracts are up after Avengers 4....simply put, It becomes Impossible to make another Avengers film with these characters....because Marvel Studios would have to pay each one upwards of 15 to 20 Million to get them back now that there 6 picture deals are expired...

but what you fail to understand is, Marvel Studios does need to change anything or change their model...Because they've already set up at least 3 future Avengers films to succeed...

They Got Chris Pratt, Boseman,Cumberpatch, Holland, Larson, Rudd and many other signed to the exact same Minimum contract that are 3 to 6 Films...

you can absolutely guarantee whatever happens in Avengers 3 and 4....It has some kind of ending that makes it perfectly clear, the next phase of Avengers films will be headlines by Chris Pratt, Boseman,Cumberpatch, Holland, Larson, Rudd

The fact that you have GOTG films making 850 M +...Black Panther Making 1.3 B+, Spiderman Making 850 M, Doctor Strange making 650 M....means these characters can easily headline future Avengers films...

again you'd certainly have a Great POINT if Marvel Studios was dependent of needing Stark,Cap, Thor and BW for future Avengers films....but they dont, They have some of the Hottest Upcoming actors Locked up for Minimum contracts and 6 picture deals

basically, Marvel Studios can easily make Avengers films for Budgets that are normal...

[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 6 years ago

they'll have to pay Maybe 20 Million combined for Chris Pratt, Boseman,Cumberpatch, Holland, Larson, Rudd to Headline Avengers 5, While they would have to pay at least 50 to RDJ and 15 to 20 M to get Scarjo, Evans and Hemsworth back...

Business wise it makes zero sense to ever make another Avengers film with RDJ,Evans,Hemsworth and Scarjo again....and Luckily Marvel Studios doesnt need to ...they've instead got Black Panther, Spider-Man,Doctor Strange, Captain Marvel, Ant-Man, and any of another Dozen of so Heroes they can chose from that they got locked up for Minimu contracts....Winter Soldier?, War Machine?, Hulk?, S Witch?Drax?....

I think you are drastically over estimating Marvel Studios and their budgets...In fact I'm gonna go as far as say your just Wrong

Marvel Studios has been excellent when it comes to Budgets, No better example than AIW....to make that film for 300 Million, NO OTHER Studio could have done that

Both Avengers 1 and 2's budget were under 250 Million....for example, X-Men DOFP was over 250 M, The Dark Knight Rises was over 250 M, BvS was over 250, Justice League was over 300 M!

Civil War again came in under 250 M despite feature over 15 Superheros and Big name actors

Almost All of Marvel Studios Solo film are between 160 to 180 Million in Budgets(a few have hit 200 M)

and most Importantly Marvel Studios ALWAYS makes HUGE profits of their MCU films, more specificall Marvel Studios Profit are almost always MORE than other Studios profit on CBM's...

every year Deadline does a "The Year Most Profitable Blockbusters" list..Marvel Studios MCU films almost always makes more Profit than The Other CBM's...

for Example Marvel Studios has had 4 MCU films make over 380 Million in Profit...IM3, The Avengers, AOU and Black Panther has all Made over 380 Million in Profit....

I'm not exactly sure what your going for with this thread...but I must say YOU MISSED and MISSED Spectacularly...to suggest that A Studio and Franchise that in the span of only 10 years has becoming the most successful and highest grossing Franchise of all time needs to change its Model...Is absurd...

To suggest that a Studio and Franchise that has literally gone 17 for 17....that has produced 9 films that have over 89% on RT...and whose Films continue to ONLY GO UP in Box office in every way, From Opening Weekends to Domestic totals to World Wide totals, To suggest they need to change is Absurd.

to Suggest There even remotely a problem with Budgets When Marvel Studios has made over 100 Million in profit on every single Film(except TIH), 16 Films, 16 MCU films Marvel Studios has made between 100 to 400 M + in Profit with each film...to suggest there is something wrong there is Absurd

lol since 2016...Marvel Studios has released 7 MCU films...the success these 7 films have had IS Unprecedented and Concrete Proof The MCU films are Getting MORE Successful....

6 out of the 7...opened over 115 Million

6 out of the 7...had a domestic total over 300 Million...

6 out of 7...Made over 850 Million WW

7 out of 7 had completely in range Budgets that resulted in all 7 films making HUGE profit for Marvel Studios...

There just absolutely no where you can go to try and point to prove Marvel Studios needs to change anything...

I think you clearly know that, thats why your intentionally exaggerating Expectations for future MCU films...I mean come on, to honestly suggest Captain Marvel needs to make as much as Black Panther...You might as WELL just announced your Trolling or are extremely desperate and are just making thiings up

the only thing you can possible point to to suggest the MCU is having too big of Budgets is the rumors that AIW cost 500 Million which was just debunked and confirmed to have ONLY cost 300 M

which again Is the exact opposite, the only possible thing you can do PRAISE Marvel Studios, for making A film as Big as AIW for 300 M....

delete this thread, its your only hope of saving face

[–] Otter (24464) 6 years ago

I respectfully disagree. I think Marvel is correct to pull back of Downey & Co., with their massive salaries, too-large gang of supporting Avengers, and aging faces, and otherwise continue doing just what they're doing. "BP2" won't be a failure if it doesn't outgross the original, it's just be a failure if it falls to outgross it's own costs!

And Marvel is doing everything right, so far at least, it's keeping the films fun and exciting, and is doing an excellent job of bringing in new characters to replace Downey & co. And really, keeping the films fun and exciting is actually more important to their brand than topping the last films in terms of special effects, and I think they know that.