MovieChat Forums > Blade Runner 2049 (2017) Discussion > China/Japan need to go Terminator Genisy...

China/Japan need to go Terminator Genisys on BR2049

posted 7 years ago by bozo_500 (12548)
18 replies | jump to latest

With $194 million worldwide, it will all come down to Japan and China. Blade Runner 2049 will debut in both markets next Friday. And yeah, it is possible that both markets could overperform. But even a run slightly better than Terminator Genisys (say, $25m in Japan and $115m in China) gets the film to a global total of around $365m, or right about where Mad Max: Fury Road (which didn’t play in China) and Edge of Tomorrow ended up.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/10/22/box-office-it-tops-650m-blade-runner-2049-nears-200m-kingsman-2-scores-big-in-china/#69df2e2e229e

With the way its been going a 350m ww total would be a major win for BR2049

[–] Renovatio (2990) 7 years ago

My bet is that Japan will spend over $25mm and China will spend less than $115mm... For a world wide total of under $350mm...

[–] bozo_500 (12548) 7 years ago

thinking maybe about 75m China. 25m Japan = total ww around 320-330m

[–] bozo_500 (12548) 7 years ago

China/Japan box office for some similarly themed movies (yearly) bear in mind china didn't really become a huge market until around 2013:

Minority Report (2002) - 42m (japan)
Terminator 3 (2003) - 67m (japan)
Matrix 2/3 (2003) - 86m/61m (Japan)
Star Trek (2009) - 9m/6m
Terminator 4 (2009) - 33m (japan)
Inception (2010) - 68m/40m
Tron Legacy (2010) - 18m/25m
Total Recall (2012) - 18m/13m
Prometheus (2012) - 21m (japan)
Star Trek Into Darkness (2013) - 57m/11m
X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014) - 116m/10m
Oblivion (2013) - 23m/13m
Edge of Tomorrow (2014) - 65m/15m
Interstellar (2014) - 121m/10m
Tomorrowland (2015) - 19m/10m
Mad Max Fury Road (2015) - 12m (japan)
Terminator 5 (2015) - 113m/22m
The Martian (2015) - 94m/26m
Star Wars VII (2015) 124m/97m
Star Trek Beyond (2016) - 65m/5m
Rogue One (2016) - 69m/39m
Logan (2017) - 105m/6m
Alien Covenant (2017) - 45m/7m
Ghost in Shell (2017) - 29m/9m
Valerian (2017) - 62m (china)

[–] bozo_500 (12548) 7 years ago

OUT TODAY IN CHINA/JAPAN
https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/10/26/what-blade-runner-2049s-failure-says-about-u-s-box-office/#468c8e53169f

[–] bozo_500 (12548) 7 years ago

Nope, China will not be saving Blade Runner 2049. The Sony/Alcon Entertainment production, which has earned just under $200 million worldwide ($77m of that in North America courtesy of Warner Bros./Time Warner Inc.), bombed in its first day of release in the second-biggest moviegoing market in the world. The $150m+ sci-fi sequel, which debuted to rave reviews but indifferent box office earlier this month, earned just $2.4m on Friday. That means, offhand, that we’re looking at a $7m-$8m weekend and $15m-$20m total in China.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/10/27/box-office-blade-runner-2049-bombs-in-china/#fe9781c1b9eb

[–] ebhaynz (3614) 7 years ago

Arnie can still pull in some serious box office overseas with a Terminator movie but Gosling and Harrison Ford don't have that kind of pull with a 3 hour BR2049.

[–] bozo_500 (12548) 7 years ago

Looks like it gonna be more Covenant than Genisys in China (probably Japan too) so be lucky if it makes it to 250m ww (like Covenant)

[–] ebhaynz (3614) 7 years ago

Yep, it's amazing how Hollywood has veered towards China, Russia, Thailand, etc. Only a superhero or animated flick get big Box Office in the U.S. nowadays.

[–] Renovatio (2990) 7 years ago

I still think it will earn more than $25mm in Japan... They appreciate quality

[–] bozo_500 (12548) 7 years ago

lets hope you are right about Japan and it does similar to Rogue One (39m)

In China youd have thought BR would do AT LEAST as much as Edge of Tomorrow (65m) or Valerian (62m - WTF?!) with Alien Covenants take (45m) the absolute worst case imaginable.

But it looks like it going to do worse than Ghost in the Shell! (29m) according to Forbes it'll be lucky if it equals Tron Legacy and the Total Recall remake (18m and they were when US movies wernt really that a big deal in china)

regarding Arnie and Terminator Genisys huge success in china seem to recall that TG was the 1st US movie released there after an enforced blackout of US movies for however long it was and as a result the Chinese audience was hungry for whatever US movie was released and it just happened to be TG

[–] ebhaynz (3614) 7 years ago

I've been to movie theaters in China, Thailand, Philippines, and S. Korea. I notice a lot of young couples go to almost any American movie if it's a big, smash em' up or a superhero movie. I just can't picture those same young couples going to see a 3 hour long movie like Blade Runner 2049.

Heck, I even had a hard time dealing with the 3 hour run time and I waited for this movie for decades!

[–] bozo_500 (12548) 7 years ago

[deleted]

[–] bozo_500 (12548) 7 years ago

[deleted]

[–] bozo_500 (12548) 5 years ago

ironically Dark Fate is now pulling in similar numbers to BR2049 (in fact its looking to do worse than BR2 domestically and overseas)

[–] darkpast (8313) 7 years ago

flop

[–] DracTarashV2 (4480) 7 years ago

^Masterpiece.

There’s not much the film can do now to please the studios, but oh well. Like the original, this film’s legacy will prevail in the end (can’t tell me otherwise).

[–] bozo_500 (12548) 7 years ago

now at 223m ww. so should be able to get to 250m maybe bit more so looking like Alien and BR will have a combined ww gross of 500m. funny to think earlier in the year some were estimating each would pull in about 500m (AC based on Prometheus doing 400m and the added incentive of it being a full on Alien movie. and BR2049 being the long awaited sequel to the classic and had Ford - so abit like Force Awakens)

[–] bozo_500 (12548) 7 years ago

China/Japan totals = 11m/9m

Check out the China/Japan totals above for similar genre movies (like Tron2, Total Recall 2012, Ghost in Shell, Terminator Genesis, Prometheus, and even Alien Covenant) to get an idea of how HORRIFIC those numbers are