I'm unclear on where the "prophecy" element enters into the true story.
It's conveyed in the movie: When John Klein goes to Chicago to pick the brain of recluse Alexander Leek he asks him about the nature of the mothman (or mothmen), to which a concerned Leek responds, "Where is it appearing?" He then informs Klein that the creature is spotted just
before great catastrophes all over the world and has various names. Thus the appearance of mothman (and Indrid Cold) in Point Pleasant was a foretelling of some horrible tragedy, which Klein mistook to refer to the chemical plant up the river but, of course, turned out to be the Silver Bridge collapse.
The aforementioned 43-minute documentary "Search for the Mothman" goes into this in more detail than the movie did.
Your question is: How does this relate to the true story? It's conjecture from John Keel's 1975 book "The Mothman Prophesies." Probably elsewhere too.
I kinda liked how the producers chose to title the movie "The Mothman
Prophecies" (from Keel's book, of course) because it suggests that it's not a conventional monster flick like the later "Mothman" (2010) turned out to be. The focal point is the tragedy that the appearance of the mothman foretells rather than the mothman itself.
The documentary "Eyes of the Mothman" is so long because it's basically four documentaries rolled into one. The four parts deal with (1.) Hokoleskwa, aka Cornstalk, etc. of the colonial period (which the aforementioned TV movie "Mothman" interestingly links the creature to), (2.) the appearances of the mothman, (3.) UFOs & men-in-black and (4.) the Silver Bridge tragedy.
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