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Market Update

posted 5 years ago by nyctc7 (41280)
11 replies | jump to latest

Last Wednesday, the Indexes closed at DOW 26,250, S&P 2925 and 8020 on the NASDAQ and after a slight detour down to DOW 25,500, S&P 2830 and NASDAQ 7730, due to a Presidentialhissy fit, the averages are now rebounding with the help of China, who is taking the "high road" in its Trade dispute with the U.S., by NOT responding to the President's latest round of Tariffs.

Right now, the Indexes would open up at DOW 26,260, S&P 2912 and NASDAQ 7950, which would be just a stone's throw away from top of the top of the markets August range at DOW 26,400, S&P 2950 and 8050 on the NASDAQ. To be honest, today's early rally is getting a boost from the fact that its the end of a tough month, so stocks are getting a push from Money Managers, looking to dress up their portfolio's to end the month, so use the rally to make sales and raise cash, because even though this rally has some room to the upside, it's not a lot of room.

Technically, last week, the Indexes were all forming negative "M" Stochastic patterns and were due for a pullback anyway, but with the President's help, that 1 day, massive sell-off, did provide some much better entry level prices for Investors. Now over the past few days, the Indexes have tested and held the August lows and were forming positive "W" Stochastic patterns, so they were due for a rally anyway and now with China's calming comments on trade, plus some end of the month marking up, we could reach the top end of the August ranges to close out a very tough month on a positive note.

Overnight Wednesday, the news out of China hit the markets around 4:00 am, so the Asian markets didn't benefit, but the European markets are higher and in early trading our markets up across the board. Bond Traders are taking profits and selling, sending the Yield on the 10 Yr back to 1.50%. Last night Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, was talking about the U.S. issuing longer term debt, but the reality is that if the U.S. sells 50 or 100 Year Bonds, the liquidity in the 30 Yr Bond could dry up and that could cause problems for everyone, so its a nice idea, that will never happen. Anyway, with Yields up a bit, the Dollar is higher and Commodities are mixed with Oil holding above $56.0, Copper up slightly and Gold and Silver off a bit.

Thursday we have the Weekly Jobless Claims and the GDP revision for the 2nd Qtr at 8:30 am, followed by the Pending Home Sales for July at 10:00 am.

Markets getting a reprieve Thursday on positive Trade remarks from China, but this Trade issue with China is not going away any time soon and with the next round of Tariff set to start next week, this game may just be starting, so trade when you can and never chase prices higher.

DOW — up 230.0 London –up 70.88
S&P – up 2600 DAX – up 110.45
GOLD—$1540 Oct Nikkei —down 18.67
OIL— $56.00 Sept HangSeng — up 88.78
DOW RESISTANCE 26,300 S&P RESISTANCE 2920
DOW SUPPORT: 26,000 S&P SUPPORT: 2900
NASDAQ RESISTANCE 8000
NASDAQ SUPPORT 7900

[–] nyctc7 (41280) 5 years ago

Overnight there were no new developments, but the Global markets traded higher and in early trading the DOW is up 140 pts, Bond Yields are ticking up as Bond Prices are comingunder some Profit Taking, sending Yields higher. The Dollar is up and Commodities are offslightly with Oil trading at $56.20, while Gold is down to $1534.

Right now, the averages are in position to challenge the top of their recent ranges at DOW 26,400/26,500, S&P 2940/2950 and NASDAQ 8000/8100, which is quite remarkable, because just last Friday, the averages were at the bottom of their ranges and testing Supports at DOW 25,400, S&P 2820 and NASDAQ 7660. Technically the Indexes are already overbought,but there is room for a bit more upside, so if you have a trade, take it, but I think that a China Trade Deal will get done, so look for opportunities in the markets lagging sectors, but start new positions slowly.

Today (Friday) we have a batch of important nuts and bolts data, starting with the Income and Spending numbers and the PPI Index for July at 8:30 am. At 9:45 am, the Chicago Manufacturing report is released, remember the July report showed that Manufacturing was under 50.0, which means that the U.S. is in contraction, not expansion. Last but not least the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report is out and keep in mind that if the U.S. Consumer is in a good mood, they are Spending and if they are Spending, the U.S. Economy will be okay, so PAY ATTENTION.

Today's data......
July Personal Income due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 0.3%; June was 0.4%)

July Personal Spending due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 0.5%; June was 0.3%)

July PCE Price Index due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 0.2%; June was 0.1%)

July Core PCE Price Index due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 0.2%; June was 0.2%)

August Chicago PMI due out Friday at 9:45 (Briefing.com consensus of 48.2; July was 44.4)

[–] krl97a (5619) 5 years ago

I'm not sure I'd claim that a brutal totalitarian regime that has kept much higher tariffs on and barriers to US goods than vice versa for decades, while engaging in rampant piracy and other legal violations, is taking the "high road", though it's probably dawning on them if it already hadn't that the US has the leverage in this dispute, and Trump doesn't seem to be blinking.

[–] Keelai (31918) 5 years ago

Dictator for life vs. wannabe dictator who is facing an election in 2020. Dictator for life can wait it out longer.

The Chinese are looking to other countries in Europe and Africa for their goods while Americans will have less consumer choices during Xmas.

Meanwhile, tariffs that the American consumer will pay begins on Sunday, September 1.

[–] krl97a (5619) 5 years ago

We all know you hate America, Keelai. You don't have to keep proving yourself on that score by doing things like siding with a communist dictator over an elected US president (who barely controls his own executive branch and is further removed from being a "dictator" than Obama and most other modern presidents).

China can't replace the US market, while factories can relocate from China to other countries. The American consumer should be just fine.

[–] Keelai (31918) 5 years ago

Trump admires dictators like his besties Kim Jong-un, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and of course, Putin. I'd expect you to support a 4x draft-dodging tyrant who places children in cages, incites mass shooters and attacks democracy every chance he gets.

Trump's economy of $22 trillion dollar debt and $1 trillion dollar deficit. A tax cut for the rich and corporations which was used to artificially inflate the market in stock buybacks has run out.

Even Boris Johnson lectured Trump about how stupid his unwinnable trade war was. Of course, Trump will crash Obama's economic boom.

"while factories can relocate from China to other countries. "

This shows how dumb you are. Trump's plan was to have U.S. factories in China relocate back to the U.S. which they will not do. Instead, they will open up in countries like Vietnam which doesn't solve the problem of factories overseas.

"American consumer should be just fine. "
Yeah, does farmers look really happy while filing for bankruptcy.

Only a fool gets economic advice from a politician. Continue to get yours from that nutcase Trump and his drunken economic advisor.

[–] krl97a (5619) 5 years ago

Obama's economic boom.

LOL! I had to single this gem out from the rest of your mindless drivel because it illustrates how stupid you are. Even Democrats didn't claim the economy was good during Obama's tenure. They acknowledged it sucked and called it the "new normal", saying Americans would have to get used to it. It wasn't until Trump proved them wrong by turning the economy around that the panicked revisionist lies started.

they will open up in countries like Vietnam which doesn't solve the problem of factories overseas.

It would solve the problem of US consumers potentially hurt at stores like Walmart. If products are being made in places like Vietnam or India they might be even cheaper than Chinese goods. And, with time and more trade with the USA, a relative middle class might emerge in those countries as it did in China that could serve as a market for US farm and other goods. Plus the planet might not be dominated by a totalitarian Chinese regime over the next century, which would be great for human freedom, let alone the economy. We don't need China, but China needs us. Thank God we finally have a president taking a stand here.

[–] Keelai (31918) 5 years ago

Trump wanted to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.. He promised high-paying factory jobs to his base. He failed.

Obama economic recovery which Trump inherited:
https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/1*bH0-PAco5jdNN8Tnljzovw.jpeg

https://chssphinx.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/pasted-image-0.png

Trump promised a 3% GDP, but it's only 2.1%.

[–] krl97a (5619) 5 years ago

So you don't know what a business cycle is. Got it. Obama presided over the worst "recovery" in US history. Trump turned it into a strong recovery at a time when history suggested we were due for a recession, as did Obama's slowing 1.6% GDP growth.

https://moviechat.org/bd0000082/Politics/5d5618ce406fc27e7f5fa11b/Average-quarterly-GDP-growth-Trump-264-Obama-192

https://www.dailywire.com/news/7970/7-facts-show-obamas-economic-recovery-has-been-aaron-bandler

More important than Trump's record low unemployment is that his policies have boosted business enough to create more job openings than there are job seekers, a reversal of the situation under Obama. That means workers have more options and leverage.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/390869-there-is-now-more-than-one-job-opening-per-one-unemployed-worker-in-the-us

http://dailytorch.com/2019/07/trump-economy-keeps-chugging-along-with-1-4-million-more-job-openings-than-jobless/

And to underscore how completely wrong you are, Trump boosted manufacturing jobs 399% more in his first 26 months than Obama's last 26 months. Obama stupidly claimed increasing manufacturing jobs would require a "magic wand". During Obama's final 26 months manufacturing employment grew by 96,000. In Trump’s first 26 months manufacturers added 479,000 jobs.

https://moviechat.org/bd0000082/Politics/5d52ebe902ec295b54e5c251/Trump-boosts-manufacturing-jobs-399-more-in-his-first-26-months-than-Obamas-last-26-months

It didn't require a "magic wand", just sensible policy. Sort of like when feckless Democrats threw up their hands at the cesspool NYC had become by the 80s and declared the city "ungovernable", so rock-ribbed Democrat NY voters gave Republican Giuliani a chance and he cleaned the city up, saving it.

[–] krl97a (5619) 5 years ago

While the stock market is overrated as an indicator, since you mention it you're completely wrong on that too.

Dow Close
12/31 2013 - 16,577
11/8 2016 - 18,333 (1,756 point gain)

*Trump elected*

8/31 2019 - 26,403.28 (8,070 point gain)

So in the last 3 years or so of Obama's presidency the Dow only crept up 1,756 points. From the surge after Trump's election until now, which is less time, the Dow has already increased 8,070 points, 4.6 times as much. And that's despite the Fed dumping money into the Obama era stock market (resulting in rapidly growing inequality since Obama's policies were simultaneously depressing median income) while it's been raising rates during Trump's presidency.

Not even close.

[–] JoWilli (15166) 5 years ago

26,403.28 +367.18

[–] [deleted] 5 years ago

We're still in the 26,000s and he's been in office for 32 months? Are you serious ???????