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Average quarterly GDP growth: Trump 2.64%, Obama 1.92%


From the BEA, annualized quarterly figures of course, for their entire presidencies so far. This board needs an occasional dose of reality given some of the garbage spin being splattered on it.

What makes that huge uptick so impressive is that it occurred 8 years into the business cycle, the "mature" phase, after growth had slowed to 1.6% in 2016 and we appeared heading for recession. How much stronger would growth, job creation, and wages have been if Trump was elected in 2008 and able to implement his agenda at the beginning of the recovery? Instead of the worst recovery on record (https://www.dailywire.com/news/7970/7-facts-show-obamas-economic-recovery-has-been-aaron-bandler), 8 years of stagnation unprecedented in America, might we have seen something closer to Reagan's boom?

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More deflection from the weakening Trump economy. Notice how the OP brings up Obama. Why not Clinton? LOL!

The government figures are manipulated. The real present GDP is -2% under Trump.

The manipulated figures use a compounded four consecutive quarters to create a false positive annualized growth rate instead of an accurate figure by using an annualized quarterly rate which is what they pretend to use when they call it GDP Annual Growth. Anyway, even the manipulated lie isn't as high as you say.

You conveniently forget that Obama saved the American economy (and banking system and houses) from a severe Bush (another Republican) recession. Trump inherited a growing economy and bull market form Obama which Trump is destroying with his stupid antiquated economic ideas like having an unwinnable trade war.

Obviously, you're too brainwashed to understand how the government manipulates figures to make the economy appear stronger than it is.

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No deflection, just providing some perspective.

The government figures are manipulated. The real present GDP is -2% under Trump. The manipulated figures use a compounded four consecutive quarters to create a false positive annualized growth rate instead of an accurate figure by using an annualized quarterly rate which is what they pretend to use when they call it GDP Annual Growth.

LOL! That's complete BS. The topline BEA "annual growth" figures don't have anything to do with the annualized quarterly rates. They're based on the year over year percentage change of the average quarterly dollar amounts for each year. You're just spewing gibberish.

What propaganda blog fed you the garbage about "real present GDP" (whatever that's supposed to mean) being "-2%"?
You conveniently forget that Obama saved the American economy

Wrong. Obama spent 8 years stomping on the economy. It's no coincidence that things suddenly happened to surge up under Trump 8 years into the "recovery".
Notice how the OP brings up Obama. Why not Clinton?

Why not the Republican Congress, LOL? The second decade of the Reagan boom, which began after the mild 1991 recession ended (3.5% growth in 1992, despite the "it's the economy, stupid" campaign, knocked down a point in 1993 by Clinton's moronic tax hike, which fortunately didn't tip the economy back into recession), was never as explosive as in the 1980s, but did move from solid to a full boom after the capital gains tax cut in 1997 and welfare reform. Those last 4 years of Clinton's tenure were the real boom years, each one seeing 4%+ growth versus only one year in his first term that barely hit 4%.

Or why not raise Harding/Coolidge or JFK? Because we're talking about this era, and highlighting the sharp contrast between Trump and Obama's performance (particularly the last couple of years) during the same cycle.

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The trade war has been waged against the US for decades. Trump is simply finally fighting back. These aren’t permanent tariffs, but leverage to get anti-US tariffs lower and end up with freer trade than before. He has to establish a deterrent, something US politicians haven’t bothered doing for several decades. Otherwise you’re unilaterally disarming, which doesn’t work. That’s led to the skewed status quo. Stupidly spouting bumper stickers like “trade wars are bad” isn’t a cogent response.

He’s already successfully got significant concessions from Canada and Mexico, though Democrats are hypocritically holding the deal hostage for political reasons despite both other countries already signing it.

As for China, the US has all the leverage because they need us more than we need them. In fact I’d be happy if we cut off all trade with China indefinitely because a totalitarian Chinese regime dominating the planet as its lead superpower over the next century would be a lot worse for the economy and human freedom than some short term stock fluctuations. Only worrying about the latter is myopic. And the US wouldn’t be hurt that bad. Factories would retool to places like India or Indonesia, where labor is even cheaper than in China at this point, and within 6 months goods at Walmart would be even cheaper than they were before. We already seeing some of that happen even with these limited tariffs. By contrast China can't replace our market. We have the power to derail their bid for superpower status, or at least make it a lot harder.

We should prioritize our trading and overall relationship with India anyway. Its population will outstrip China’s soon and at least it’s a democracy. Increased trade might boost its middle class and create markets for the US exports currently going to China (which aren’t huge). Better than propping up a communist regime that views us as a rival to be displaced.

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Ridiculous comparison. Absolutely fucking ridiculous.

Obama took over the worst economy since the depression.

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Ignorant argument. Worse recessions are typically followed by stronger recoveries, so growth should have been stronger than usual, not the weakest in history. They're usually V shaped. Obama's was L shaped. He lucked out with timing and still screwed things up with his idiotic leftist policies.

Comparisons with Reagan are telling. He inherited the worst economy since the Great Depression, complete with double digit inflation, and managed to conquer it while simultaneously facilitating an historically explosive boom, something Keynesians had wrongly predicted was impossible.

Even if you cut out the recession quarters in the first half of 2009 and only count the technical recovery, Obama's average quarterly GDP growth only comes in at around 2.2%, still pathetic compared to Trump, especially if you consider that Trump inherited an economy due for a recession where GDP growth had already slowed to 1.6% in Obama's last year. The economy doesn't usually surge up near the end of a cycle. Amazing turnaround.

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Ignorant reply.

A deeper recession doesn't mean a more rapid recovery. Obama took over with an economy doing very poorly. Of course when you average it out its not going to compare as well to someone who has only been president for two years and had a solid economy that was on the rise when he took it over.

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Ignorant reply

I like how you title your post. Honesty in advertising.
A deeper recession doesn't mean a more rapid recovery.

It does typically, unless terrible government policies do enough damage to override that tendency.

"This continued lower employment and real GDP are even more inconsistent with previous U.S. experience than these comparisons indicate. "Zarnowitz's rule" (1981) posits that deep recessions generally are followed by steep recoveries."

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cenfis/publications/notesfromthevault/1110.aspx

https://wallstreetpit.com/97411-simple-proof-that-strong-growth-has-typically-followed-financial-crises/
Obama took over with an economy doing very poorly.

And he made things worse than they otherwise would have been. Worst economic performance in history.
Of course when you average it out its not going to compare as well to someone who has only been president for two years and had a solid economy that was on the rise when he took it over.

1.6% GDP growth and falling isn't "solid". Even Democrats didn't try to claim the economy was good back then. Obama said it was "the new normal" and people were just going to have to get used to chronic socialist style stagnation. They even celebrated the huge increase in those receiving food stamps or other welfare (because more government dependents mean more liberal votes; a permanent crisis is the leftist dream scenario). This revisionism is hilarious.

As for the comparison, you're again missing the point that Trump's years come in the last part of the cycle, 8 years into the expansion, not when one would expect the economy to suddenly start growing stronger unless there was a powerful reason for it to. Something changed. Trump freeing up the economy and letting America be America again was that change.

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Obama - 95,000,000 underemployed. An all time record.

Trump - statistical full employment with unemployment below 4%. An all time record.

Obama an unaccomplished joke who wrote for his college newspaper.

Trump a successful billionaire business man 3 times over.

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Another great achievement not captured by the unemployment rate alone is the fact that under Trump job openings have surged to record levels and outnumber job seekers, a reversal of the Obama stagnation. In fact it's the first time this has happened in the couple of decades they've been keeping track, and it's been sustained for well over a year now.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/390869-there-is-now-more-than-one-job-opening-per-one-unemployed-worker-in-the-us
https://www.apnews.com/bf2ff7ec19c74f2a8451f4bf2876e7ee
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-u-s-has-1-million-more-job-openings-than-unemployed-workers/
http://dailytorch.com/2019/07/trump-economy-keeps-chugging-along-with-1-4-million-more-job-openings-than-jobless/

That's important because it means workers have more options and more leverage for higher wages.

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