The plan made sense if you take two things into consideration:
- it is Barzini who pulls the strings
- the long-term plan is to weaken the Corleones and expand the Barzini empire
Barzini knows drugs is the thing of the future, it's the key to his rising power. He's got the supplier and he needs the guy who'll provide a minimum of legal protection. And this guy is Vito Corleone. The film's opening more than insists on the fact that it is Vito, and only Vito, who's got the politicians in his pocket.
So, if Vito accepts, the drug trade will take off, and in the long term, the Corleones' influence will be nothing compared to the Barzinis'. In the long term, Barzini will be powerful enough to buy the politicians and be the influential one.
But Vito has an intuition that drugs is something "special", a tricky, dirty business that will create a deeper shift between his organization and the law, so he says "no". Now, what is Barzini supposed to do with that "no"? He knew Vito was out of the game, what could be the plan B? Say "please"?
Sollozo probably told Barzini about Sonny's blunder and they guessed that he and Tom were hot for the deal. So, basically, Vito is not only slipping, but is totally out of touch. Vito didn't get that behind that juicy offer, there was a disguised threat (well, he sort of figured out since he called Luca Brasi right after the meeting). Anyway, since Vito couldn't help, he became a liability, one to get rid of, as soon as possible.
It was a gutsy move, but it proved to work since it took all the Corleones off-guard. Of course, Vito was such a revered figure you couldn't imagine his son or any Corleone making peace with the enemy but that's why a part of the plan was to "kidnap" Tom and ask him to try to reason Sonny, that's why they had to get rid of Luca Brasi first, Luca whom Vito gave them on a silver platter, that's how slipping he was.
Sollozo didn't expect Sonny to cool his temper, but he trusted Tom's influence and his capacity to reason him, in order to avoid a war, at least temporarily. Sonny was a fierce opponent, but a war with the other Families would have ultimately destroyed the Corleones after they just lost half of their political influence. And look at the post-hospital scene, Sonny wanted the Turk's ass, but Tom managed to convince him to wait, if it wasn't for Michael, they would never have killed the Turk.
I agree the Turk signed his own death warrant when he attacked Vito, it was him or Sonny at that point, because Sonny wouldn't have given a rat's ass about the business, he could have sunk the whole Corleone Empire just to get the guy who killed his father, a simple matter of honor. But my guess is that the Turk probably had plans for Sonny too, and it was part of the long-term plan to destroy the Corleones.
And since it was Barzini who pulled the strings, whether the Turk or Sonny die first wasn't his main concern, he would have benefitted from Vito's death to try to get his politicians' portfolio, because the underlying message of the film is that there's always a connection between power and corruption and nature hates emptiness. Vito dead would have made Barzini the new Vito.
Whether Vito said 'yes' or 'no', it was a win-win situation for Barzini, but with a no, Vito had to die. Barzini didn't expect him not only to survive but to have the other son, Michael, attacking his interests by killing not only Sollozo but his bodyguard of a cop.
Darth Vader is scary and I The Godfather
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