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ur4196727 (99)
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The full poll for those who want more than one cherry picked stat: https://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/969
A few other ones from it:
60% say at least one member of their family has been killed.
Support for a two-state solution increased by 27-points in the Gaza strip.
The passages in the bible regarding nakedness are usually talking about the person's own feelings of shame, not any sort of command to be clothed. The others are about incest. If being naked is sinful, why was it ok for Isaiah to remain naked for three years?
With the classic (age/2)+7 rule it's fine: a 45year old can date as young as a 29 year old without it being weird. Genders don't matter for this rule.
"Furthermore, the Gaza Health Ministry never indicated that those numbers were based on its own limited capacity to count bodies every day."
Their methodology for counting the dead is known. And throughout this conflict it's clear that the hospitals are extremely stretched. This doesn't have to be a hard limit, and the number of the daily dead does vary. But as long as processing the number of adult bodies is a significant limiting factor, which would be difficult to deny, then this would also have an influence on the genders. a + b = c If a goes up, it is inevitable b will go down, so it is not surprising that there is a strong negative correlation between male deaths and female deaths.
"How Hamas figures its own casualties doesn't change the fact that the total number of men killed just doesn't make any sense."
Why? The number of daily dead (until mid November) came from hospitals/morgues. Not every dead Hamas soldier is going to end up in a hospital/morgue.
UNRWA: "There could be more. " Do you know what "significant" means? Even if some UNRWA workers moonlight as Hamas fighters, we could factor that in and still say that the death toll numbers still look alright. To have a significant effect on the comparison, there would have to be huge numbers of UNRWA who are literal Hamas fighters which is nonsensical. The UNRWA deaths are a good neutral indicator of the civilian deaths, which is exactly why the Israelis have been working to discredit the organization (well, that and to act as an excuse for intentionally demolishing their infrastructure).
"The Gaza Health Ministry claims that after 11/26 it began getting its fatality figures from "reliable media sources"." ...for the North. And that's why it is ok to still question those figures. But they still use the old methodology for the South and even parts of the North. And you can see where this differs in the database.
"the number killed at the Al-Ahli Hospital was obviously wrong from the start" And yet the Americans estimated it to be as high as 300.
ok, a bit more...
The linearity of the graph of total deaths. This can be explained by the hospitals and morgues running at capacity since the Israeli invasion. They can only process so many bodies per day, and may catch up adding people to the database on the days where there are less deaths that day.
"Unfortunately, verified control data is not available to formally test this conclusion, but the details of the daily counts render the numbers suspicious."
There are tests one can use to help determine if a dataset is fabricated.
"Hamas admitted to losing 6,000 of its fighters, which represents more than 20% of the total number of casualties reported."
A dead Hamas fighter is not necessarily in the official daily figures. His corpse may still be rotting outside crushed under some Israeli tank tracks. But Hamas will know roughly how many soldiers they used to have under their command, and how many they have now. It doesn't mean they counted every Hamas soldier's body.
re: UNRWA workers... To not be a good comparison measure, it would mean that a significant proportion of UNRWA workers would have to be literal Hamas fighters. No one has seriously suggested this, despite the allegations of a number UNRWA workers being involved in 10/7.
Both articles use just the basic cumulative figures to work from, but the daily deaths database is actually pretty comprehensive. It lists people by name, age, gender, id number, type of injury, location, etc. You can see some of this in the details released in response to Biden casting doubt on the figures which he later walked back on.
Now there's good reason to question the figures in the North in recent months, but in general the level of detail helps confirm the accuracy for the others against eye witness reports from neutral third parties such as Médecins Sans Frontières.
"It didn't take the time to carefully count how many were really killed before putting out that number right away."
Do you not know what an estimate means?
ok, one simple point which doesn't need any statistical knowledge...
Both authors use the al_Ahli hospital blast as evidence that the daily numbers are completely fabricated.
They posit that the estimated death toll for that incident put forward by Hamas does not make sense when compared to the total Gaza death toll for that time, when added to other acknowledged & evidenced deaths in Gaza.
But estimating a death toll for one incident does not mean finding every body involved. It can be from knowing how many people were likely to be in the area at the time of the blast and eye witness accounts. Finding and numbering the amount of dead from a large incident would take time.
Whereas the daily death tolls are sourced from actual bodies in hospitals and morgues (at least until mid November when things became more difficult as the health service progressively collapsed; the al-Ahli blast was in mid October).
So the estimated death toll from the blast would not be automatically incorporated into the official daily death tolls, making their argument fallacious.
It has not, and will never be peer reviewed. Posting an article from a member of the Koret Project doesn't strengthen your case.
I'm aware of the author, we even have some cross over in areas of interest outside of Gaza/Israel... tell me when he gets this analysis peer reviewed.
I looked at the statistical analysis. I enjoy working with data like this, and have previously looked deeply into these figures myself to try to estimate the proportion of male deaths that were Hamas fighters.
It's not an unbiased analysis of the data. It is a Jewish magazine; the same one which has published an article saying "they are all Hamas", thereby excusing the civilian deaths.
For an example of the West Bank being erroneously referred to as having a "Hamas led" health ministry, go find the original Reuters/AP report of the Ibn Sina hospital assassinations.
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