Kurt already had his suspicions of Dexter when Dexter let out what he knew about Matt's boating incident. Ashes falling from the sky is definitely unusual so I can see Kurt checking out the incinerator to see what was being burned and then finding the screws. Dexter slipping up and revealing info to Kurt about Matt's boating accident + Finding Matt's surgical screws + Dexter driving from the direction of the incinerator that night + Matt's murder taking place right near Dexter's home = enough for a serial killer such as Kurt to realize it may be Dexter. Also, Dexter appearing out of nowhere at Kurt's cabin to save Molly is suspicious behavior enough for Kurt to zero in on him.
Who knows? Maybe there could have been a hunting or cctv camera nearby, and one of Kurt's friends shared the info with him that Dexter was there that night. Kurt goes to check out the ashes, and bam! He finds the screws!
Granted He could just be trying to get Dexter to nibble based off of a hunch after he found the screw. He doesn’t seem to know for sure that Dexter did it, he’s just angry that Dexter barged in and stopped his kill on Molly so he started wondering.
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