"Some say you have to always double the budget to factor in marketing (not sure if that's true.)"
Sort of... you double the budget in order to factor in the cut taken by the theaters, and due to lower profit percentage for foreign ticket sales.
Marketing is secondary to this, and basically increases the budget. A movie that's marketed heavily CAN spend as much on budget, so you could roughly double it for that too.
That means a movie would need to make 4x its budget to profit. But with big budget movies, it may be difficult to spend the same amount on marketing. Justice League was pushed pretty hard, so I wouldn't be surprised if they blew 300 million on marketing.
But hey, maybe they only spent 100 million on marketing. No clue.
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