MovieChat Forums > Inside Job (2010) Discussion > What is the real cause of the collapse?

What is the real cause of the collapse?


Right now, people are doing a lot of finger pointing about the cause of the economic collapse. The real cause of this calamity was government interference in the market. Don't believe me? Lets take a look:

1. Gov. creates FHA. It starts as a noble program that allows homeowners to borrow money to buy homes. Like all gov social programs, it starts out great and home ownership explodes. Like all gov social programs, smart people will eventually figure out how to make money off it (they will take advantage of the forthcoming credit bubble).
2. Fannie Mae, VA loan programs, Ginnie Mae, and Freddie Mac are created to induce more home ownership by creating a secondary market for primary lenders to borrow from. Like all gov social programs, it starts out great and primary lenders have some insurance against defaults. 30 year fixed rate mortgages are the gold standard. Like all gov social programs, smart people will eventually figure out how to make money off it (financial "innovations" will create jumbo mortgages and other crap the average consumer is too stupid to understand).
3. S&L crisis in the 80's caused by, you guessed it, gov intervention in the free market. S&L institutions make risky loans, knowing that the gov will intervene and bail them out. In the aftermath, gov regulations are enacted to prevent this from happening again. The enforcement of these regulations would, ironically, help to create the sub-prime crisis by expanding the influence of the secondary market.
4. The gov enacts a home ownership program to help poor people buy homes. Eventually, it turns out to be a program that gives poor people homes they can't afford. Smart people profit.
5. Sub-prime mortgage crisis hits. Poor, dumb people lose. Smart, rich people end up ok. Poor, dumb people angry. Smart, rich people still looking for next credit bubble (government sponsored school loans . . ?)

Every time the gov intervenes in the free market, even on the grounds of virtue, bad things will happen. We need to be wary when politicians try to do things on our behalf.

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The real cause of the crash? The collapse and destruction of our economy has been planned by design for a long time. You have to go all the way back to the early 1900's with the simultaneous creations of the Federal Reserve (private bankers) and the IRS. The icing on the cake that accelerated the collapse was Nixon taking our country off the gold standard and the repeal of the Banking Act of 1933 (Glass–Steagall) under Bill Clinton and the Republican House/Senate during the 1990's.

When you have a small group of for-profit private bankers who control your nation's money supply, with DEBT being the only thing that backs it, coupled with runaway fractional reserve lending, coupled with those same bankers (the Fed) keeping interest rates artificially low for decades, coupled with the deregulation of the entire financial services sector...it shouldn't come as a shock to anyone that massive bubbles, massive crashes, massive bankruptcies, massive bailouts, massive national debt, and massive theft of taxpayer money is happening all over the place.

Again, all of it was planned a long time ago.


- Death is whimsical today.

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Well actually we'll have to go back to 1791 when the first central bank was established by then Secretary of Treasury Alexander Hamilton with its charter signed by President George Washington. All kidding aside, while various members of its board of governors could be blamed for sharing in the cause of the financial collapse, I believe the Federal Reserve System in itself should be considered at best, an instrument that maintains stability in the financial system and at worst a necessary evil. Case in point: When the charter for the First Bank of the United States expired and the U.S. was without a central bank, inflation spiraled out of control--hence one of the primary purposes of the Fed is to stave off inflation by lowering interest rates. However, like you mentioned, keeping interest rates artificially low is not my idea of fiscally responsible monetary control. So like in everything else there must be balance.

While there exists a lack of transparency with regards to the decisions which the Fed makes, one thing we do know is that the Federal Reserve Banks are not operated for profit. And in the case where the Fed sees the need to create or destroy money--it can only do so with the approval of the U.S. Treasury. So if something goes amiss in their lending practices the blame can't be placed entirely on the shoulders of Federal Reserve Board. Rather if there is a systemic problem it could be traced to several branches of the government which include but is not limited to: The U.S. Supreme Court, the Treasury Department, U.S. Congress, and the Federal Reserve Board. For example in 2000, U.S. Congress passed a bill specifically prohibiting regulation. In 2008 the Supreme Court passed a ruling to severely restrict securities fraud lawsuits. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan opposed regulation. So did Treasury Secretaries such as Donald Regan, Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers.

So again this brings us back to deregulation. While there will always be people who will exploit the financial system to maximize profit(i.e., three major banks have been convicted of money laundering for Iran), this moral hazard would be nowhere as destructive(i.e., 30 million people lost everything, wiping out of trillions of dollars in wealth, "Magnetar Trade") if it weren't for government enabled deregulation. Some suggest the breaking up of the large banks and depriving investment banks of trading on their own accounts--while others call for financial reform and transparency. But whatever the powers that be decide to do, they must find a way to hold people accountable or fraud will continue to run amok on Wall Street and corruption will remain status quo.

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Finally someone mentions the 800lb gorilla in the room. Thank you, gruven137.

http://www.tvnewslies.org/tvnl/index.php/editorial/jesse-richards-comm entary/665-dear-lou-dobbs-who-owns-the-federal-reserve.html

@LLOwens How is fiat currency a necessary evil?

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Thanks for posting that article Starvenus. If what that article is saying is based on fact, then much of what I mentioned in my previous comment is based on untruth--so I stand corrected. I apologize for this misinformation, yet I posted it because this is what I was led to believe. That being said I thought I should revise my position on fiat currency as well. Every fiat currency has ended up being devalued. Some say the Dollar has lost 92 percent of its value since its initial issuance in 1913. The value of the Dollar continues to plummet further with the over-issuance of currency--at a 13% per annum clip--as well as our country's continued involvement in war which is inflationary. I was foolish enough to believe that the dollar was backed by a gold standard when in fact since 1971 this was done away with. Kind of makes you wonder why it is common knowledge that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is holding over $25 billion worth of gold owned by foreign investors in its vault. Up until very recently I, like the mainstream media, have applied the expression "Masters of the Universe" to Wall Street institutional investors--when in the grand scheme of things--or more appropriately in this grand pyramid scheme of things--they're just pawns in this rigged crap-shoot.

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It was my pleasure to share that article; albeit probably could have given a better link, Lou Dobbs is trusted by most hence...

Although, I understand it's no pleasure to come to that actualization, because it starts the domino affect of TRUTH.

Not knowing how far you followed this white rabbit but there's more that you may have missed recently:

3rd Qtr 2009 we the US of A, made a payment on our debt to China in gold-bars from Fort-Knox. Do you know the status of that transaction? Do you know how Strauss-Khan (and the head of Egypt's central bank) may have pissed off others, trying to rectify the situation? Do you know what Putin, who was initially accused by the former IMF head turned suspect for being behind the allegations, stated last week in Strauss-Khan's defense?

Not sure if it's appropriate to turn this thread into a re-education discussion. Feel free to message me if you'd rather digest this privately before openly discussing it on IMDB.

Toto, we're not in Kansas anymore. Speaking of which, the real meaning of the Yellow brick road, and the Silver slippers may be brought up as well. (Yes, they were always silver before the big-screen debut.)

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So again this brings us back to deregulation. While there will always be people who will exploit the financial system to maximize profit(i.e., three major banks have been convicted of money laundering for Iran), this moral hazard would be nowhere as destructive(i.e., 30 million people lost everything, wiping out of trillions of dollars in wealth, "Magnetar Trade") if it weren't for government enabled deregulation. Some suggest the breaking up of the large banks and depriving investment banks of trading on their own accounts--while others call for financial reform and transparency. But whatever the powers that be decide to do, they must find a way to hold people accountable or fraud will continue to run amok on Wall Street and corruption will remain status quo.


Except, the government were the one who asked Wall Street to fund the secondary market in the first place.

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I am with you all the way.I am guessing that is not what the movie says?
Why, in your opinon is the Government so big on wanting poor people to own homes they can not afford? Simple math would have shown these loans to be unsustainable. Your final sentance sums it all up.

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Is sure seems that you are obviously a member of one of the many banks or institutions tied to them and/or are far too simplistic in your consensus to be believed.
While it is fact that many government programs or regulations are obviously designed, influenced and brought about by the corrupt network so that the filthy lying Wall Street whore and greed and money mongers can work their black magic along with their political and non-political cohorts. At the same time as you state many of these same whores look for the cracks in many well-meaning regulations and work them like a finely played fiddle. But.. removing many loan and banking government regulations is what in part allowed much of this fiasco or Ponzi scheme to happen. Under the guise of free market wink wink.. This was manipulated by a network of players.
It is very naive to state unequivocally that the government intrusion was the cause, case and point of this huge problem... It is so painfully obvious that this was inside out and outside in manipulation and purposeful crash and theft of our money and our system... Did you watch this very factual documentary?? You would have to be asleep to make the statement you made if you had watched it and came to this blanket conclusion of yours. If you spent even 10 minutes verifying any of what was discussed in this very well laid out documentary you would have to admit your statement is overly simple and not pointing enough fingers..
The corrupt in places of high government connected with the corrupt in high places of wall street and the corrupt in high places of the largest banks of the western world tied with the corrupt Federal Reserve bank and series of federal reserve daughter banks, in connection with the corrupt in the high places of the most influential media giants of this world as we know it are all in concert to have brought this about..
When will those that are always pointed to as conspiracy nuts be vindicated. It’s so easy to yell conspiracy nut, much in the way many yell “race” as the card to be played to try and dispel the messenger thereby negating the message. Only after the writing on the wall is yesterday’s news I suppose... So many believe that if you remove government regulations o handouts that all will be well and good in the morning..
Do you really believe that there is not a group of power hungry no good lying cheating human supremacists that believe themselves to be little gods in in multiple positions of this country and world we live in? There is not any one single race of people doing this. It is a conglomerate of the most vile excuses for human life there is. These are the people that are not drug in to jail by their hair such as any commoner would be if they did anything close to resembling their illegal and immoral acts. In their minds they are above us.. We are just dumb little animals. They really do laugh at us in derision.
I agree in part with line 4... But that was manipulated by all of the above that I listed. Who do you think lobbied for these home ownership programs... I mean come on... there is a whole gaggle of lobbyists for all of these crooks. The promises of the money holders are powerful temptations for many.. That old adage, Follow the money and you will find the culprits.. Now that is a simple statement but guaranteed fact..
Politicians are only the tip of the iceberg and you by making an argument based substantially on the supposition that it is 99% the governments’ intrusion and fault does us a dis-service.
We need to wake up and realize that our government as we want to believe it exists is an illusion... The real government uses our government for a placatory device... Until we wake up and smell the coffee and realize this, nothing we do will amount to anything but little ants trying to pull down a giant tree while believing it is a blade of grass.

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@stringpickin1
Wow, very strong feelings!

No, I'm not a banker or finance guy. If you want to know, I am a freelancer who hovers at the poverty line. I also, have completed school at a real estate college, so I understand that the real estate market is not a free market and has not been for some time. If it was, the collapse would not have happened. This is irrefutable, simple as it may seem.


Do you really believe that there is not a group of power hungry no good lying cheating human supremacists that believe themselves to be little gods in in multiple positions of this country and world we live in? There is not any one single race of people doing this. It is a conglomerate of the most vile excuses for human life there is. These are the people that are not drug in to jail by their hair such as any commoner would be if they did anything close to resembling their illegal and immoral acts. In their minds they are above us.. We are just dumb little animals. They really do laugh at us in derision.


If they do laugh at us in derision, it is because the actions of the populist mob are sometimes tragicomic. I've been fortunate to work with some very smart serial entrepreneurs. They don't look at life like normal people. To them, life is a set of problems to solve. The populist mob is what pushes for the regulations. More regulations means that there are more legal loopholes. This allows the smart entrepreneurs to make money where the loopholes are. You can see why someone who is aware of the human condition might find that funny. If you don't understand the joke, I'll explain it: the class-warfare mob is it's own enemy. From a removed point of view, this is funny. Inside the mob, it is very tragic when you have to feel the outcome.

The only way to stop the loopholes from appearing is to have a few, very simple and all-inclusive laws. Don't believe me? One example is the fact that Warren Buffet pays a lower percent in taxes than his housemaid. That's because the tax code is huge and has many loop holes. It's all a game. Smart people are good at games.

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The corrupt in places of high government connected with the corrupt in high places of wall street and the corrupt in high places of the largest banks of the western world tied with the corrupt Federal Reserve bank and series of federal reserve daughter banks, in connection with the corrupt in the high places of the most influential media giants of this world as we know it are all in concert to have brought this about..


Advice: get this sentence trademarked!!!..;-)...And it is the "corrupt" who are contemptible because it is their actions which bring along those who follow the corrupt financial Pied Pipers into a world full of allure and untold lucre but really eventually leads to economic desolation. It's a mess.


"The only way to stop the loopholes from appearing is to have a few, very simple and all-inclusive laws.

hmmm...I think we had "laws" but they were given short shrift. What is it? Laws are made to be broken? It doesn't stop smart entrepreneurs who want to solve problems.

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Preach!!!

<fans self like an over-weight Baptist in a church lacking A/C>

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There WERE "a few, very simple and all-inclusive laws". They were just brought down by Wall Street buying the laws they wanted.

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There WERE "a few, very simple and all-inclusive laws". They were just brought down by Wall Street buying the laws they wanted.


I'm not sure if you understand how the real estate market works.

The government requested that Wall Street get involved in the housing market to help poor people. When these laws were made, Wall Street was tiny and had little impact on government.

The FHA was created in 1934, and the GSEs were created in the 60's and 70's.

The acts of 1934, and the late 60's early 70's helped pave the way for the crisis over 40 years later. Without these acts, Wall Street would be a fraction of the size it is now and would not be able to "buy" laws.

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The most free markets on the world had the largest impact on the economy while the "government interfering" and "government controlled" countries like sweden and finland was barely touched, so if anything this totaly ruins your theory.

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I've been vandalized by Elvis! -Ernest, Ernest Goes to Jail (1990)

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@deeveed


hmmm...I think we had "laws" but they were given short shrift. What is it? Laws are made to be broken? It doesn't stop smart entrepreneurs who want to solve problems.


No. At the global level, laws weren't broken. At the global level, laws were set up precisely so that Wall Street could help poor people buy houses. Without these laws, there would be no crisis. Wall Street knows this and freely admits it.

@Strazdamonas

The most free markets on the world had the largest impact on the economy while the "government interfering" and "government controlled" countries like sweden and finland was barely touched, so if anything this totaly ruins your theory.


I'm not an expert in Scandinavian real estate. However, I do know that the majority of home sales in the US are government subsidized. There is a difference between the US economy and the real estate market that is part of the US economy. Do you understand that?

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That's because the tax code is huge and has many loop holes. It's all a game. Smart people are good at games.

You know Warren's a fellow who plays "by the rules" (I think since he hasn't been hauled into tax court yet). As far as loopholes, if there there then why do we have so many tax cheats? Well they have the loopholes so why don't they use them? I have the feeling then that they are working with dopey tax guys...;-)...I guess what I'm trying to say is that you may have a point with the "mob" bit but at bottom economic systems go awry because individuals are corrupt are immoral trying to simply sway it to their benefit instead of the "common good". Hey and is there such a thing any more????

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You know Warren's a fellow who plays "by the rules" (I think since he hasn't been hauled into tax court yet). As far as loopholes, if there there then why do we have so many tax cheats? Well they have the loopholes so why don't they use them? I have the feeling then that they are working with dopey tax guys...;-)...I guess what I'm trying to say is that you may have a point with the "mob" bit but at bottom economic systems go awry because individuals are corrupt are immoral trying to simply sway it to their benefit instead of the "common good". Hey and is there such a thing any more????


So, if you go to a tax accountant and he finds that you qualify for a tax break, you wouldn't take it cause it's wrong? Common, that's a little recondite.

People act in their own self-interest. That's is why capitalism is brilliant. It succeeds based on the fact that humans work best when thinking about themselves.

If the housing market was not subsidized by the government, the banks would have had money to lose. Since losing money is not in their self-interest, they would have actually cared about who they lent money to. Since the housing market is not a free-market, the inevitable happened, and the economy collapsed.

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People act in their own self-interest. That's is why capitalism is brilliant. It succeeds based on the fact that humans work best when thinking about themselves.

You know I mainly agree with your argument. It makes sense. As you can see, I place a moral prism on this "self-interested" capitalism that we experienced. With your last sentence above that's the way it's supposed to work but it didn't and took us under. Of course, there has to be a limit to "self-interest" and we lost sight out of it. I'm not so sure on how flexible capitalism can be in protecting us from future meltdowns when it comes to handling the interior "soul" of capitalism which resides in its participants and its movers.

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You know I mainly agree with your argument. It makes sense. As you can see, I place a moral prism on this "self-interested" capitalism that we experienced. With your last sentence above that's the way it's supposed to work but it didn't and took us under. Of course, there has to be a limit to "self-interest" and we lost sight out of it. I'm not so sure on how flexible capitalism can be in protecting us from future meltdowns when it comes to handling the interior "soul" of capitalism which resides in its participants and its movers.


You fail to differentiate between state capitalism and private capitalism. Under private capitalism, this meltdown could not have occurred. Private capitalism would have acted as a governor on risk.

State capitalism has no governor. If your salary is not affected by losing money, why should you care who you loan money to?

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Under private capitalism, this meltdown could not have occurred. Private capitalism would have acted as a governor on risk.

I don't know about that elim. I'm a very skeptical and cynical guy with ANY system and with humans involved in how shall we say the pecuniary interest. Even thoughts about mothers sometimes are not awakened with fond inclinations under those circumstances.

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US real estate market was part of the whole economy but it is that collapse is what started the chain of events that lead to situation we see today.

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I've been vandalized by Elvis! -Ernest, Ernest Goes to Jail (1990)

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The most free markets on the world had the largest impact on the economy while the "government interfering" and "government controlled" countries like sweden and finland was barely touched, so if anything this totaly ruins your theory.


I am Swedish.

We had a housing bubble in the 80s that almost made us a banana republic in the 90s. Now we have a bubble again. And even the social democrats admits it was the governments fault, as will people who study the financial collapse in the US. I mean, it's absurd, on so many levels, to even think the US has had any extensive deregulation is absurd. The financial sector in the US is probably the most regulated market in the world.

And we did feel the blunt of the financial collapse, even though we did do better than most countries.

"Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito"

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The financial sector in the US is probably the most regulated market in the world.


I would say China's financial sector is the most regulated from all the industrialized nations. Despite the fact that China's markets are more tightly controlled, they have experienced phenomenal growth. Capitalism is, after all, entirely compatible with communism. So who's to say an economy cannot prosper with big brother looking over its shoulder. Yet even if what you said was the case, the main problem is our financial sector has become so obese and grotesquely bloated that all the regulation in the world would do little to minimize the systemic corruption that now permeates Wall Street--especially when this sector has become so out of control. Why do even greedy corporations agree that there is a need for regulation in the form of antitrust laws? Sadly these laws don't seem to apply to the banks and financial institutions which are too big to fail and have the assets and political clout to exert monopoly power over those with whom they lend money to. 40 years ago the financial sector reaped approximately 2 percent of total profits. Today the financial sector commands a whopping 40 percent of all profits! http://www.huffingtonpost.com/william-k-black/how-the-servant-became-a _b_318010.html The primary reason why there existed a huge demand for ARMS and NINJA loans in the first place was because this "moral hazard" was guaranteed through the securitization food chain. So comparing the U.S. housing bubble to the housing bubbles in other countries would be akin to comparing apples to oranges.

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While this could very well be the case, the main problem is our financial sector has become so obese and bloated that all the regulation in the world would not be able to minimize the systemic corruption that now permeates Wall Street--especially when this sector has become so out of control. Why do even greedy corporations agree that there is a need for regulation in the form of antitrust laws? Sadly these laws don't seem to apply to the banks and financial institutions which are too big to fail and have the assets and political clout to exert monopoly power over those with whom they lend money to. 40 years ago the financial sector reaped approximately 2 percent of total profits. Today the financial sector commands a whopping 40 percent of all profits! http://www.huffingtonpost.com/william-k-black/how-the-servant-became-a _b_318010.html The primary reason why there existed a huge demand for ARMS and NINJA loans in the first place was because this "moral hazard" was guaranteed through securitization. So comparing the U.S. housing bubble to the housing bubbles in other countries would be akin to comparing apples to oranges.


You don't think that has anything to do with them being bailed out, getting to borrow at zero interest and returns for not even taking risk and lending it out?

No, you don't need more regulation because an industry grows. That's absurd.

Corporations love regulations, they write them! Not only do they write them, it's their people in power.


The only thing that works is to deregulate and force them to compete.

No it's not, we had government guarantees in Sweden as well for the loans. The basics are the same. Don't listen to those that try to confuse you. The government wanted a bubble and got one, that's the basics of it.

"Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito"

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Corporations love regulations, they write them!


Are you implying that corporations have developed a love/hate relationship with respect to regulations? A few months ago, the Dodd-Frank regulation bill didn't quite receive open arms from congressional supporters of Wall Street special interest. http://www.politicususa.com/en/financial-reform-repeal Are you also implying that corporations write clauses in these laws knowing in advance that they will exploit them at a later time? If congress fails to close these gaping loopholes, these corporations can then profit from such "regulations" and operate with impunity.

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Are you implying that corporations have developed a love/hate relationship with respect to regulations? A few months ago, the Dodd-Frank regulation bill didn't quite receive open arms from congressional supporters of Wall Street special interest. http://www.politicususa.com/en/financial-reform-repeal Are you also implying that corporations write clauses in these laws knowing in advance that they will exploit them at a later time? If congress fails to close these gaping loopholes, these corporations can then profit from such "regulations" and operate with impunity.


That's because it benefited the big investment banks in particular, and not anyone else. So the other companies lobbyists protested. Of course they write in stuff they can exploit. One thing that is often increased is the overhead costs, like licensing laws, which increases costs for start-ups, so the competition becomes more limited.
Congress will never be able to "fill up these holes". They need to step out of the way and let the market regulate itself, that's the only thing that works.

Yes, the actual laws are written by lobbyists, not by congressmen. This is so basic it gets.

So those anti-big-biz people out there who say "regulate more" are really just trying to take out a fire with gasoline.

"Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito"

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"I would prefer not to...."

After The Great Depression government stepped in, and very tightly reigned in the banking and investment markets. Over forty years of lobbying by rich, Right Wing forces, 'The Powers The Be' were convinced (bought off?) that it would be safe and profitable to allow less and less regulation. And, that is where the trouble began. You cannot have people playing the market and 'winning' if it 'fails'. Privatization and Deregulation works real good for a few on top, and it is Hell for those in the middle and on the bottom.

Wake Up!!!

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After The Great Depression government stepped in, and very tightly reigned in the banking and investment markets. Over forty years of lobbying by rich, Right Wing forces, 'The Powers The Be' were convinced (bought off?) that it would be safe and profitable to allow less and less regulation. And, that is where the trouble began. You cannot have people playing the market and 'winning' if it 'fails'. Privatization and Deregulation works real good for a few on top, and it is Hell for those in the middle and on the bottom.


You've never read about the great depression have you? The New Deal very much prolonged the great depression.


What regulation is it that has been removed, that would have prevented this? I mean, you can name the few laws that have been removed on one hand basically. While on the other hand regulation just under Bush increased by thousands of pages and funding for the regulatory agencies by an abundance.

This "deregulation" myth needs to die, it has no basis in reality.


The trouble began when the government started getting involved and when they did one thing, like institute the FDIC, they felt they had to do another. Trying to control the economy trough dials. It doesn't work, you need market balance and market forces.

What you have now is privatization of profits, socialization of losses, regulations written by Wall Street and more regulations written by Wall Street when that fails.


What should be done is to flush out the system and start over. Replace the entire legal code. Just like it should be done with the tax structure. There's no saving the current mess.

"Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito"

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The trouble began when the government started getting involved and when they did one thing, like institute the FDIC, they felt they had to do another. Trying to control the economy trough dials. It doesn't work, you need market balance and market forces.


Bingo.

I think I really started to understand how the economy works when I got into computer programming. The economy and a computer program are alike in that they are both just one big algebra equation.

What happens when your computer program gets too big? You do things on one side of the equation without realizing what you have affected waaaaaaaaay on the other side of the equation. Sure, you can keep track of all your variables when there are only a few of them (circa 200 years ago). But once you have an equation with 4000 variables (I have worked with equations like this!), you can't touch one variable without affecting 200 other variables. Even smart guys, like Lehman Bros, didn't foresee the collapse, because there were too many interacting parts.

The economy is an equation with thousands of variables. Each regulation adds variables to this mess. Often, new variables simply shift risk and complexity to another part of the equation.

I'll give an example. The US has an EPA. Because taxes have to be collected to fund the EPA, businesses move to China. China has no EPA. So now we have shifted jobs and pollution oversees without solving the original problem we tried to solve (pollution). A simpler solution would be to put a federal tax on gas and carbon. Now, the private sector is forced to innovate and come up with more efficient engines (because it is more cost effective to spend money on innovation that can save money in the future -- another example of the complexity, money, and time triangle variables shifting quantities to each other). The environment ends up doing better than the EPA could do for it (less pollution than now). And jobs and IP stay in the US, while China is forced to clean up it's act to catch up with our technology. Agencies like the EPA seem to be good ideas and have done very good things, but when you dig deeper, you realize that they are not that effective.

It's not magic. It's just basic algebra!

Internal self-interest is always stronger than external punishment. That's why we had the collapse, and that's why we will have it again without a move towards free-market capitalism. If you put your faith in regulations, you will be disappointed when the next collapse happens.

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That's why we had the collapse, and that's why we will have it again without a move towards free-market capitalism.

That begs the question: What exactly is free-market capitalism? Adam Smith's definition would be ideal--yet wouldn't apply to today's globalized economy chock full with multinational corporations. For starters, Smith's version of a free market would be absent of monopolies and oligopolies which would level the playing field. There would also exist no barriers to entry into such a market as well as a virtually unlimited pool of buyers and sellers. In today's economy we have laws that prohibit Medicare from negotiating lower drug prices that favor the big pharmaceutical companies. There are regulations designed to impede market competition. There are also laws that protect profits of only the biggest corporations such as through generous tax breaks, bailouts for Wall Street and General Motors, agricultural subsidies, H-1B federal work visas, federal investment in military spending and research and development which ultimately benefits private corporations, trade deals which benefit multinational corporations. Or the Fed's attempt to assist the big banks with their inflationary policy. So our economy much rather resembles a government supported/subsidized corporatocracy than free-market capitalism.

What free-market capitalism has done is transfer wealth to the upper 10 percent of the population and serves to protect the property of the wealthy, while the other 90 percent see a decrease in earnings and savings. So if you were to ask who laissez-fair capitalism benefits most is much a matter of who you ask. It surely does not benefit the bottom 50 percent who own less than 1 percent of the wealth. The gap between the rich and poor is wider than any industrialized nation. America is fast becoming a nation of haves and have-nots. Neither does it seem to benefit 60 percent of the population who are currently living from paycheck to paycheck. Some gauge the condition of the middle class by citing the 4 pillars: (1)Opportunity to retire, (2)Attain a comfortable standard of living, (3)Ability to send children to a university, (4)Access to medical care. Sadly, millions of middle class Americans cannot afford any of the above. During the '60s and '70s, America's middle class experienced 1-2 percent yearly growth, while today, middle-class Americans living in a period of deregulation, have lost close to 5 percent. So a working-class American could interpret free-market capitalism as a method that multinational corporations use to institutionalize greed and justify their lust for greed with a survival of the fittest ideology.

So one could argue that free-market capitalism only applies to the big financial institutions and multinational corporations who are free to move their assets and workforce around the globe in order to maximize profit. And capitalism doesn't equate with equal opportunity or financial freedom and has little to do with the best interest of the average American. In fact for most it means the very opposite, as most American workers are treated as a little more than a disposable cog that churns the production machine. And finally, most capitalist economists agree that market failures and the like require markets to be regulated. So I believe the key is to strike a perfect balance between a free-market and an efficiently regulated one.

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If you put your faith in regulations, you will be disappointed when the next collapse happens.

And you also mentioned "equations". I'd think high mathematics, "quant" thinking and some kind of oblivion to what is occurring within economic realities is a prescription for further collapse. Economic variables and formulas do work wonderfully,nicely and neatly in that numbers world however I'd think they must be cognizant in how those equations wold play out against actvity in the real world that necessarily can't be looked at specifically through "mathematical" means.

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Agreed deeveed. Critics of mathematical/quantitative finance will tell you that the value of financial assets(e.g., the bone of contention on this board being financial derivatives), cannot be characterized and computed by the models currently in use. The use of stochastic calculus, namely theorems such as arbitage-free pricing, to estimate the market value of derivatives is highly speculative at best as hindsight 20/20 would clearly dictate. Despite the fact that quants have been proven dead wrong time and time again, Wall Street continues to be a major employer of math majors for creating new algorithms and their continued work in the pricing of derivatives. JobsRated.com puts Mathematician at the top of their ranking when it comes to most satisfying and rewarding careers.

This discussion kind of reminds me of the film The Bank(2001) starring Anthony LaPaglia and David Wenham where the key plot element tells of a mathematician who is hired by a bank to devise a formula to predict market fluctuations including market crashes. Even in a fictitious film such as this one remind us that no formula or theorem can predict market behavior.

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And you also mentioned "equations". I'd think high mathematics, "quant" thinking and some kind of oblivion to what is occurring within economic realities is a prescription for further collapse. Economic variables and formulas do work wonderfully,nicely and neatly in that numbers world however I'd think they must be cognizant in how those equations wold play out against actvity in the real world that necessarily can't be looked at specifically through "mathematical" means.


This isn't quant thinking or any form of exotic math. This is the basic algebra that is the real economy.

GDP = x + y + z + . . .

It isn't complicated. Just add millions of more variables to the right side of the equation. You start to see the complexity of the government tweaking one variable. All the other variables change, whether the government wants them to or not.

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Instead of GDP, just think of the price system. Every price affects another price. The price of corn affects the price of a movie ticket, the price of a baribe-doll affects the price of gasoline, etc. etc.

Any distortion has tremendous effects, and distorting the money supply, ie. inflation, changes everything. It destroys information in the long run.

"Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito"

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Great post, you need self balancing systems. You can't rewrite the code over and over again as soon as something changes.
That's the way I think of it. I think of it like "if this happens and affect these variables, there needs to be a natural balance to fix it". That's what the market is! Any little change has millions of things it affects. Just take one little farmer and look at all the things he affects. He affects things that doesn't even have anything to do with farming. Trying to direct that is beyond impossible.

just a little thing about the carbon tax:

http://fixtheclimate.com/uploads/tx_templavoila/COP15_Policy_Advice.pdf

"Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito"

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I think of it like "if this happens and affect these variables, there needs to be a natural balance to fix it".


So are you suggesting that during the bursting of an economic bubble, that the Federal Reserve should let the bubble run its natural course as some would argue? The main problem is, if the Central Bank sits on its hands and fails to reverse its monetary accommodation policy by soaking up excess liquidity, this will risk the collapse of its currency. On a smaller scale the government saw the need to implement policies such as the Troubled Asset Relief Program(TARP) to lessen the risk of the failure of the big banks and other financial institutions.

So here's what I would suggest: The Central Banks and regulating agencies should pay keen attention to whether they should allow excessive monetary liquidity and must be especially cautious about implementing such expansionary monetary policy. And here's why: The common denominator with all economic bubbles is that they create excess demand and production. Each and every time a bubble bursts, consolidation must occur to alleviate the excess. So why not nip the bubble in the bud by ensuring that the big banks do not make it a practice of engaging in excessive leveraging(e.g., recent computer models suggest that excessive leveraging could be a key factor in causing financial bubbles) and enact laws to prohibit the Fed from flushing the economy with money supply as well as laws which prevent them from keeping interest rates too low for too long(i.e., 2001-2004), which may fuel booms in the short term which soon develop into bubbles, but exacerbate financial recovery in the long term resulting in major busts.

Because this is a zero sum game, Wall Street speculators profit by purchasing derivatives, by shorting securities directly or by investing overseas in financial markets such as China--while average investors have lost trillions of dollars in wealth often times because they lack the timely insider information which is privy to institutional investors. While tightening credit has a tendency to impede economic growth, it will prevent the confluence of equity and excess capacity which is the one true constant in all economic bubbles. China is vigilant in preventing credit and asset bubbles from spilling over into their "real" economy. While China will not be forever spared from an economic collapse, they have demonstrated the foresight to know that governmental regulation is absolutely crucial in their long-term financial success. 'Nuff said.

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So why not nip the bubble in the bud by ensuring that the big banks do not make it a practice of engaging in excessive leveraging(e.g., recent computer models suggest that excessive leveraging could be a key factor in causing financial bubbles)


This is a terrible idea, for many reasons.

The bubble was caused by government interference in the free-market. You are proposing a government solution to a government caused problem. It will fail.

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The bubble was caused by government interference in the free-market. You are proposing a government solution to a government problem. It will fail.


The fact is, economic bubbles happen regardless of whether the government decides to intervene or not. And when the financial sector is responsible for creating and is the primary beneficiary of these bubbles, how can you use the government as the scapegoat--even if government leaders continue to enable Wall Street's bubble making? So I believe the key is for the government to attempt to minimize the damage caused by recurrent bubbles by keeping tabs on excessive liquidity which serves to exacerbate the inevitable.

The housing market bubble, like all other economic bubbles, resulted because investors irrationally valued assets solely based upon performance returns in the recent past without resorting to rigorous analysis based upon underlying fundamentals. Economists and market analysts in general should take some of the blame for promulgating their extrapolation ideology in relation to the value of housing during the peak of the housing market bubble. Because investor psychology and herd mentality can in itself be a catalyst for an economic bubble, I would say that these bubbles can be blamed just as much on irrational exuberance and the wealth effect experienced by U.S. consumers as opposed to government regulation.

So if nothing is done to curb excess demand(i.e., excessive monetary liquidity, lax lending standards by banks), a bubble and a resultant contraction is unavoidable. Case in point: What started the bursting of the housing market bubble was when sub-prime mortgages began to default--and not an increase in governmental regulation. On the contrary, deregulation of the financial sector enabled financial institutions to take on excessive risk through securitization which got the ball rolling and caused a snowball effect which resulted in the biggest economic bubble of all time. Many experts warned beforehand that if housing prices were ever to plateau that the bubble would burst and as a result consumption, real wages and residential investment would fall, plunging the world economy into a recession. Housing accounted for almost one-third of the growth of GDP during 2001 to 2005, illustrating how much of an impact the bursting of the housing bubble would have on the real economy. And who or what's to blame for engineering the vehicle of securitization and inventing money-making vehicles such as derivatives(e.g., CDOs, CDSs, MBSs), which has greatly compounded the massive transfer of wealth from taxpayer and homeowners to CEOs and money managers who work in the financial sector? And what good is an economy which boasts a $14.6 trillion GDP, when we are racking up so much debt, which is directly or indirectly related to trillions of dollars spent government bailouts, federal tax evasion by America's largest corporations, a wholesale outsourcing of manufacturing jobs, and massive defense spending expenditures which primarily benefit or prop up private corporations?

Let the market regulate the money supply and let the market regulate the financial sector.



The problem is, the U.S. financial sector, namely its big banks, are already too large that they pose catastrophic danger to the entire global financial system if they ever were to fail. For this very reason, according to the New York Times, the Fed is now considering raising capital requirements for banks and other financial institutions who are deemed systemically important and pose systemic risk because they are too big to fail. So are you opposed to such regulation by the Central Bank? While I consider this as a mere stopgap measure, at least it's a step in the right direction. I believe the primary purpose of regulation in this case is to minimize the negative impact that the bursting of an economic bubble will have on the economy because there exists a catch-22. While I would be in favor of having the market correct itself without the aid of government intervention and have these financial institutions assume all of the risk, the reality is failing to intervene will further sink the economy. So while regulations may serve as merely a band-aid approach to treating symptoms of the underlying problem, what else can you do to fix a financial system that's broken primarily because the financial sector has gotten too big for its own good and for the good of the average working class American?

And here's the main reason why Wall Street must be regulated. Executives in the financial sector in general are not primarily concerned with the health and vitality of the real economy. Rather, all they seem to care about when bottom-lining their actions is boosting quarterly profits especially during economic bubbles. Their modus operandi is little more than a pump and dump scam which includes: pumping up leverage to unsustainable levels, minimize capital outlay, artificially inflate asset prices, and skim off the profits. When the Fed keeps interest rates too low for too long, this transfer of wealth to Wall Street's elite continues unabated. So even when the real economy is stagnant or is in recession, it is no secret that corporate execs rely on asset bubbles to make a fortune which comes at the expense of the taxpayer. Don't get me wrong, if the financial sector operated primarily in the best interest of working class Americans and if their primary goal was to bolster the real economy, even I would agree that there would be little need for regulation. I apologize for being redundant, yet do so because the same issues keep recurring on this board just as financial bubbles keep recurring on Wall Street, regardless of what the government does or does not do, LOL.

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LLOwens, you still seem to be having trouble understanding how money works. But, I'll try to address your concerns.


The fact is, economic bubbles happen regardless of whether the government decides to intervene or not.


YES! There is a normal business cycle of boom and bust.

However, in a free market, only the people who took the initial risk end up failing. In a public market, everyone is forced to pay for the failure. This is a key difference between the two markets.


how can you use the government as the scapegoat--even if government leaders continue to enable Wall Street's bubble making?



So if nothing is done to curb excess demand(i.e., excessive monetary liquidity, lax lending standards by banks), a bubble and a resultant contraction is unavoidable.


As I have explained. Wall Street was tiny. The government asked Wall Street to finance the secondary market and even insured this market.

Now, Could Wall Street have become large without government insurance of securities (government tinkering in the free-market)?

NO.

Would Wall Street have given loans to people who didn't deserve it if the securities weren't insured?

NO.

Please understand the concept I have explained above. The free market keeps bubbles small when they do arise, and ensures that only those responsible pay for their gambles.

It is a concept known as risk vs. reward. Government insurance of securities means their is little risk, only reward. That is what caused the bubble.


the Fed is now considering raising capital requirements for banks and other financial institutions who are deemed systemically important and pose systemic risk because they are too big to fail. So are you opposed to such regulation by the Central Bank?


This is what banks call "core capital". I actually don't care either way if the requirements for core capital are increased.


Don't get me wrong, if the financial sector operated primarily in the best interest of working class Americans and if their primary goal was to bolster the real economy, even I would agree that there would be little need for regulation.


The financial sector is concerned with making a dollar out of 15 cents. They are no different from you or me.

Wall Street was, and still is very important to the real economy. Have you ever tried to create a global company from scratch? It is difficult, unless you have a billion dollars lying around. This is where Wall Street comes in. They give you money to create the warehouses and supply chains around the world.

I don't want to come across as condescending. I have had the experience of sitting in tense, smelly, sweaty meetings where decisions about how people would feed their family next week were discussed. The decision about how to turn the idea in your brain into a global reality is difficult. You have to make difficult decisions about going public, just to make enough money to survive vs. facing the result of other people taking massive equity from you.

Sometimes, funding from Wall Street is the only way for innovative goods and services to survive.

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Could Wall Street have become large without government insurance of securities(government tinkering in the free-market).


I actually agree with some of what you have to say and appreciate you elaborating on your views elimc. So are you suggesting that if the government abstains from "tinkering in the free market" that the financial sector will shrink in size to pre-deregulation levels--or at least to a size where they will not be a parasite of the real economy? If not, what's the point of hypothesizing about how things could have been or about how things could now become? There are nearly 2 million businesses created each year illustrating the need for bank loans, considering only a fraction of these start-up business secure venture capital. So I won't argue against the fact that most businesses rely on bank loans. However, I still can't understand why the financial sector can be allowed to command 40 percent of all profits in the U.S. economy for simply lending out money and moving it around. Aren't banks supposed to be the middle men and not the masters of the universe? And if Washington is truly a Wall Street government as some would testify to, then isn't the government simply doing the bidding of Wall Street--which essentially makes the financial sector a relative free-market?

The financial sector is concerned with making a dollar out of 15 cents. They are no different from you or me.


But how can anyone justify financialization during times of economic crisis and profiting off of the misfortune of the same people that the financial sector misled/cheated? Why should CEOs who work in finance receive record high salaries and bonuses at a time when the real economy is stagnant? This 'neoliberal parodox' has been clearly evident immediately following the housing market meltdown as the financial markets' demand for higher income and growing stock prices occurred during the exact same time when economic growth ground to a halt and increased market competition made it extremely difficult to earn profits in the manufacturing sector. Thus it should come as no surprise that when you look at profits as a percent of GDP, profits in the manufacturing sector dropped sharply over the past decade and have not recovered even until now, while the profits of the financial sector has increased steadily over the same period. The crises caused by financialization hurt the majority of the population. For example, non-financial corporations responded by cutting wages and benefits or by moving into financial operations to increase profits while large benefits accrue to finance.

Dean Baker(2006) of the Center For Economic Policy Research(CEPR) has argued that neoliberal policies such as anti-unionism, profiteering in the health industry(e.g., corporate takeover of the health care during the Clinton administration in the form of HMO), and anti-inflationary bias, is the driving force behind the rising inequality in the U.S. Ben Zipperer and John Schmitt(2006), also of the CEPR, have added their expertise on this topic, "The U.S. economic and social model is associated with substantial levels of social exclusion, including high levels of income inequality, high relative and absolute poverty rates of crime and incarceration." John Schmitt adds, ".... the U.S. economy consistently affords a lower level of economic mobility than all the continental European countries for which data is available."

So how could there exist such inequality in times when the economy was booming--especially at the peak of the housing market bubble(2005) if deregulation is the answer to our economic woes? I can just imagine what researchers from CEPR are saying about the exploitation that is going on as we speak. More recently, economists Howell and Diallo(2007) mention how 30% of U.S. workers earn low wages--35% of the labor force is underemployed--40% of the working class population is adequately employed. It's no wonder then why few Americans can afford homes despite the housing market correction and low interest rates.

The irony in this scenario is that neoliberalism cannot deliver the liberty that is supposed to be one of its strengths. I also find it amusing that supporters of neoliberal policies who adhere by the "Washington Consensus" sometimes pick and choose what proposals they wish to apply. For example, under the Washington Consensus, the government is not supposed to run up huge deficits. Yet the catch-22 in this case is how else can global capitalism be hegemonic without government intervention--namely massive military interventionism--in the trillions of dollars--needed in order to protect the interests of multinational corporations? There is also supposed to be a reduction in public spending subsidies--yet how can that be with the trillions of dollars that were spent to bail out Wall Street, General Motors and the agricultural industry? Trade liberalization is supposed to encourage relatively uniform trade and tariffs--yet how can this be conceivable after the signing of international trade agreements such as "normalization" of trade with China? Instead of Tax reform, we see several of America's largest corporations evade federal taxes. Deregulation, under the Washington Consensus, is supposed to abolish regulations that restrict competition or impede market entry. Supporters hail privatization, claiming it will promote competition and efficiency, which lead to lower cost--when the fact of the matter is GMOs--due to profiteering--are increasingly becoming out of reach to middle-class Americans--prompting talks of government run universal health care. And finally, speaking of the liberty that these policies are supposed to guarantee--how can this be the case when 1 in 37 adult Americans are incarcerated? Shockingly, some even argue that our overcrowded prisons are partly due to efforts to lower unemployment statistics, stimulate the economy through prison construction and maintenance, coupled with military policing of the U.S. prison system.

Hopefully I have explained my position as to why I'm in no rush to embrace the neoclassical school of thought and ideological paradigms that are behind many of today's economic policies which have led to labor exploitation, systemic corruption, and environmental degradation. I consider myself as being an open-minded individual open to suggestions that, in this case, benefit the majority of Americans.

I don't want to come across as condescending.


I only felt that when you said I have trouble understanding how money works, LOL. Admittedly, I'm not an expert on financial matters--I sucked eggs in my college Economics class--perhaps due to the fact that I'm not particularly fond of reading or doing homework. However, I am in love with movies. If it weren't for documentaries such as Inside Job, Too Big To Fail, Food Inc. and The Corporation, my knowledge of monetary policy and systemic corporate corruption would be next to zilch. And besides, it doesn't take a Nobel Prize winning economist or a John Bates Clark medalist to recognize the world of hurt that deregulation has caused to millions of working class Americans.

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So are you suggesting that if the government abstains from "tinkering in the free market" that the financial sector will shrink in size to pre-deregulation levels--or at least to a size where they will not be a parasite of the real economy?


Yep!

Furthermore, the smartest guys on Wall Street would be forced to move somewhere where they can garner a better return. They would have to start developing " productivity innovations" instead of "financial innovations" in order to make lots of money. This would help America.


Aren't banks supposed to be the middle men and not the masters of the universe?


Yep.


And if Washington is truly a Wall Street government as some would testify to, then isn't the government simply doing the bidding of Wall Street--which essentially makes the financial sector a relative free-market?


The government subsidizes the buying of real estate in the secondary market. By definition, this means it is not a free-market.


But how can anyone justify financialization during times of economic crisis and profiting off of the misfortune of the same people that the financial sector misled/cheated?


You might have a point if Wall Street was the only benefactor. The truth is that anyone could have profited from the bubble, and many people did. My parents received a low interest loan to buy a house in the early nineties. If it weren't for Wall Street, what kind of interest do you think they would they have to pay? It would have been much higher.

For many years, Americans received low-interest loans to buy houses. And we didn't question where this free money was coming from.

Similarly, some people on Wall Street did not do well when the crisis hit. In fact, Lehman Bros went completely bankrupt.


It's no wonder then why few Americans can afford homes despite the housing market correction and low interest rates.


I would say that too many Americans were able to afford homes. You should look at home ownership statistics before the FHA was created!


If it weren't for documentaries such as Inside Job, Too Big To Fail, Food Inc. and The Corporation, my knowledge of monetary policy and systemic corporate corruption would be next to zilch. And besides, it doesn't take a Nobel Prize winning economist or a John Bates Clark medalist to recognize the world of hurt that deregulation has caused to millions of working class Americans.


Instead of watching documentaries or reading papers by people who have never run a business, I encourage you to go set up your own business. The fee is fairly low. In the state of Texas, you can set up a corporation for around $300. If you set up an LLC with your name, I think the cost can even be much lower.

You will realize very quickly how regulation affects businesses!

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Similarly, some people on Wall Street did not do well when the crisis hit. In fact, Lehman Bros went completely bankrupt.


I wouldn't quite let Lehman Brothers off the hook when it comes to Wall Street execs who were engaged in profiteering. Richard Fuld, a.k.a. the "Gorilla of Wall Street," received approximately $22 million in severance packages and earned $354 million during his final 4 years as CEO. And if this wasn't enough of a golden parachute, Fuld sold approximately $490 million worth of LEH stock before it collapsed.

As far as Lehman's bankruptcy goes, Fuld chose not to accept merger deals nor did he accept capital injection offered by financiers such as Warren Buffet, in order to strengthen its balance sheets--moves which could have spared Lehman from going under.

I would say that too many Americans were able to afford homes.


In 1965, the cost of an average single-family home was approximately $21,000. During the peak of the housing bubble, the average single-family home was almost 10 times the price--an 850 percent increase! So in other words, too many Americans were able to afford homes because too many government insured/predatory loans were handed out.

In response to your statement, I wasn't referring to past tense in reference to the decrease in a demand for homes, but rather I was speaking of the present. A huge paradigm shift is currently underway--going from strong demand for single-family suburban homes before the housing market meltdown to a strong demand for more economical dwellings such as condos and apartments in today's housing market. Remember when the younger baby boomers bought homes from the older baby boomers--as well as the desire for these younger boomers to buy second homes? Well what we're seeing today is a decrease in net worth for the average young boomer coupled with shrinking generation X demand for suburban homes, which has greatly restricted overall demand for such homes despite the reduction in prices. And it sure appears that generation Y home buyers will be even more skeptical. This will lead to continual downward pricing pressure. Here in Hawai'i, the median condo prices have skyrocketed and have been hoovering around $300,000 because of strong demand from younger baby boomers as well as generation X and Y home buyers who cannot justify or afford paying median single-family home prices of nearly $600,000.



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I wouldn't quite let Lehman Brothers off the hook when it comes to Wall Street execs who were engaged in profiteering. Richard Fuld, a.k.a. the "Gorilla of Wall Street," received approximately $22 million in severance packages and earned $354 million during his final 4 years as CEO. And if this wasn't enough of a golden parachute, Fuld sold approximately $490 million worth of LEH stock before it collapsed.


The people at Lehman Bros. suffered, even if the exec. didn't.

Even so, you are missing the critical point, that public capitalism is not as efficient as private capitalism. Lehman Bros. wouldn't have over-leveraged itself if it weren't for gov. insurance in the real estate market. The CEO wouldn't have gotten paid as much.


As far as Lehman's bankruptcy goes, Fuld chose not to accept merger deals nor did he accept capital injection offered by financiers such as Warren Buffet, in order to strengthen its balance sheets--moves which could have spared Lehman from going under.


As I understand it, he was waiting for the government to help out. Sources claim he was pretty shocked and devastated when Lehman went under. I don't think he ever saw it coming. He made a mistake. And he lost his position for it.

In business, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose and sometimes you tie. It happens to everyone.

Judge not lest ye be judged.


This will lead to continual downward pricing pressure. Here in Hawai'i, the median condo prices have skyrocketed and have been hoovering around $300,000 because of strong demand from younger baby boomers as well as generation X and Y home buyers who cannot justify or afford paying median single-family home prices of nearly $600,000.


Yes. Most houses are too expensive. They have been for some time.

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Lehman Bros. wouldn't have over-leveraged itself if it weren't for gov. insurance in the real estate market.


Inside Job touched on this point explaining how financial institutions such as Lehman, whose leverage ratio was 31:1(2007), would become insolvent with just a 3 percent decline in the value of its assets. However, just because Lehman became insolvent didn't necessarily indicate that it would automatically go bankrupt. Because these banks are too big to fail,(i.e., Lehman was the fourth largest bank before the financial collapse of 2008) they have access to the Federal Reserve's discount window--meaning they can borrow money to meet its obligations and can carry on business as usual despite being deemed--technically insolvent. So whether a big bank is allowed to go belly up is largely a judgement call by regulators. It appears that regulators didn't see enough upside to attempt to salvage Lehman's rapidly shrinking book value.


So we both agree that money flows to the least regulated markets primarily because of higher returns. However, I still find it difficult to believe that--taking another excerpt from Inside Job-- namely, financial innovation has made capital markets much safer--when the very opposite appears to be the case. Case in point: Canadian banks did not need government bailouts despite their financial markets being tightly regulated. While their returns were not as spectacular--especially in the short term--I'd say they made out quite well. However, knock on wood, there is a housing bubble brewing in Canada, so it would be interesting to see how they adjust their monetary policy.

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So whether a big bank is allowed to go belly up is largely a judgement call by regulators. It appears that regulators didn't see enough upside to attempt to salvage Lehman's rapidly shrinking book value.


From what I understand, the government tried to save Lehman Bros. From what I understand, over a hectic weekend, Lehman Bros. and the government thought there would be a bailout fairly close to the time when the bank realized it would eventually go bankrupt. This is partly why Fuld was so shocked when he learned his company of 40 years was going under.


So we both agree that money flows to the least regulated markets primarily because of higher returns.


No. Money flows to where it garners the highest return. That's an economic law. Regulations aren't necessarily related. Although, regulations can, and often do, stifle growth and real innovation.

I would have to say there are some exceptions, especially when it comes to regulations that help give consumers information about a product.


financial innovation has made capital markets much safer--when the very opposite appears to be the case.


The reason I put financial "innovations" in quotes is because it is not usually an innovation. A real innovation usually helps mankind achieve more productivity of some kind. Sometimes, financial "innovations" are just a way to shuffle risk and money and time. These three variables are closely related.

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This is partly why Fuld was so shocked when he learned his company of 40 years was going under.


Rather than believe rhetoric--I bottom-line action. Didn't Fuld sell all of his stock shares before Lehman went belly up?

Although, regulations can, and often do, stifle growth and real innovation.

I am a strong believer that corporations in the non-financial sectors should receive as little regulation as possible. However, I think it has been proven that if corporations in the financial sector are allowed to self-regulate--this will lead to disastrous results primarily due to their failure to regulate derivatives. As has been discussed in Inside Job, government agencies such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sought to initiate regulation of derivatives prior to the financial meltdown--yet received opposition from the Fed--namely Greenspan.

We must also be cognizant of the fact that virtually all fiscal and monetary policy decisions when enacted become a two-edged sword. For example, loosening monetary policy by lowering interest rates will promote growth. However, there is a direct correlation between lower interest rates and higher home values and commodity prices which can lead to excessive asset inflation. Case in point: The Asian financial crisis and the fueling of the Dot.com bubble. On the flip side, tightening monetary policy by raising interest rates too high, too fast, will greatly contribute to lowering home values, and was a triggering factor in the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis. So obviously, taking an extreme position on monetary or fiscal policy isn't the answer.

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Rather than believe rhetoric--I bottom-line action. Didn't Fuld sell all of his stock shares before Lehman went belly up?


Who cares?


I am a strong believer that corporations in the non-financial sectors should receive as little regulation as possible. However, I think it has been proven that if corporations in the financial sector are allowed to self-regulate--this will lead to disastrous results primarily due to their failure to regulate derivatives. As has been discussed in Inside Job, government agencies such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sought to initiate regulation of derivatives prior to the financial meltdown--yet received opposition from the Fed--namely Greenspan.


I can't agree that external regulation will prevent financial crises better than a free-market, but that's ok. As long as I can get people thinking about how money works, and how money is not really that complicated, I feel like that's a good thing.

Half of money is just understanding the concept of risk.

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I can't agree that external regulation will prevent financial crises better than a free-market, but that's ok.


Perhaps I should have worded it as I believe:
1.Keynesian macroeconomic theory should be applied more forcefully to the financial sector.
2.Classical macroeconomic theory should be applied to non-financial sectors during normal business cycles.
However, even I would admit that this would be discriminatory. I should also admit that it would be illogical to call one school of thought as totally false while the other absolutely true. Like is true with most anything else, the best results usually come when we avoid extremes and take a balanced approach.

As long as I can get people thinking about how money works, and how money is not really complicated, I feel like that's a good thing.


Half of money is just understanding the concept of risk.


If we return to a gold standard, than understanding the risks involved would be much simpler. Fiat currency has allowed the federal government to spend more than the tax revenue that they receive since all they need to do is print more money or raise taxes. Fiat currency has also allowed the largest financial corporations to turn Wall Street into what amounts to a global casino where the house always wins. It has also allowed the average citizen to live way beyond his means and the consequences of his decisions usually doesn't hit him until his home is in foreclosure or when he is forced to file for personal bankruptcy protection.

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Keynesian macroeconomic theory? Oh really? Isn't that exactly where we are now?
After deficit stimulus spending designed to put money back into the coffers from which campaign fund contributions to the next Obama presidential campaign will flow? It seems to me that as long as we are on the current path, the U.S. will simply continue to slide into 3rd world nation status.

Instead, how about some transparency? How about we stop referring to the system we've had in place for the past 40 years as "free market capitalism", which it definitely is NOT. How about we educate kids about the realities of economics, instead of the varieties of sexual expression? How about honest pricing, full disclosure, and the cessation of all campaign donations except for those from individuals, and stop limiting those? How about we start believing in private property again, instead of allowing federal and state bureaucracies to tell us how we can use our property, what products we can buy, etc.? Why don't we explain to people how great it is to protect private property, since individuals who own stuff take better care of it than those who merely appropriate it to themselves? (Guess which houses are in better shape--those who have renters living in them, or those inhabited by the owners?)

How about we stop spending money that isn't there, which is another, much more insidious form of taxation, where rather than having to actually go down for passing tax increases, politicians simply steal the buying power of our money by elaborate vote-buying government programs for which there are no actual funds? Why don't we start explaining how the U.S. dollar is worth about 20% of what it used to be worth in terms of buying power?

How about we stop using the dishonest Consumer Price Index, which doesn't reflect the important stuff? How about we stop subsidizing college education? That's a huge bubble, in that we have brainwashed people into thinking that higher education will give people better jobs? It has made our college degrees useless, overpaid our professors, whose greed is so well delineated in this documentary, and created generations of young people who begin their work life with staggering college loans to pay off, while working at jobs as baristas and retail shop clerks for minimum wage? Unlike Mr. Ferguson, I do NOT believe that Americans have less education, in terms of degrees. More people than ever have undergrad degrees as well as MBAs, law degrees, masters, etc. Education does NOT produce more affluence, unless it actually contributes to skill sets required by business to enhance productivity.

The loss of buying power of the dollar, and the loss of employment opportunity means a generation of Americans who will live at a much lower level, current generations who will spend their older years with scant medical care while living with reluctant grown children, and possibly compulsory euthanasia.

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Well said, Paloma.

Unfortunately, I don't see any positive signs that things are going to change in the next five years. That would require the people to realize that we are still inside an economic bubble and that the recession is not a recession, but a new economic normal. It would require us to actually solve problems -- which would mean facing difficult decisions and decreased job security for politicians.

I may just save up and jump ship. I really don't see how the US will be able to dictate it's own future with our current problems, and I don't feel like investing in entitlement schemes that have no ROI for my generation (social security will not exist).

The people on the titanic have been warned, but they keep drinking and partying. I'm ready to get to the life-raft before before we go totally under. It may be a multi-decade decline, but we are certainly sinking.

One thing that stunned me, was the administration's claim that unemployment would be at 8% by now. I don't expect Obama to understand business, because he was a college law professor, insulated from the reality of capitalism. But his economic team is feeding him baloney. The guys who told him that employment would be better by now are completely delusional. They need to be replaced.

I just don't understand how anyone could think that things would have improved by now. All you have to do is go outdoors, and you realize that there is little reason for corporations to invest long-term in America. Especially with the current guys in charge.

It almost makes you think that the banks should have been allowed to fail and depression allowed to occur. That way, we would have been forced to fix the intrinsic problems of out economy. Instead, we will face hardship over at least the next decade and possibly still face a depression.

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And nowhere do I see you addressing the real cause of this crisis.

The investment bankers who were allowed, and indeed encouraged, to make as much money for themselves and their banks - and ultimately people like Richard Fuld, as possible by selling financial products that they knew were useless and ulimately worthless. All of this was done with the tacit approval of politicians who were economically illiterate and therefore in thrall to the financial market men who found it easy to convince them of their expertise by keeping up the pretence that what they were doing was so complicated, only they could understand it.

In short, greed on behalf of the banks and hubris on behalf of the politicians brought down the house.

It was always thus and until governments grow some balls, learn some simple arithmatic and treat their voters with respect instead of contempt, it will always be thus.


Regulation is the only way to stop financiers from destroying economies again.

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"Regulation is the only way to stop financiers from destroying economies again. "

That sentence doesn't even mean anything.

What matters is the kind of regulation and even further how it comes about. Competition is the best regulator, which you get by getting government out of the way.

"Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito"

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If it means nothing to you I can only assume you don't understand English.
It means what it says.
Banks and financiers have all but destroyed capitalism but then they've been allowed to but compliant governments.

Investment bank departments, ie the risk takers, should never again be allowed to use the money from the retail banking department. This is the simple root cause of what happened. The easy money was too easy for the greed merchants to get their hands on and p1ss up the wall. No control means out of control. That's what happened.
Everything else is just waffle and smoke perpetrated by pretend economists who think the world works on theories rather than reality.

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If it means nothing to you I can only assume you don't understand English.
It means what it says.
Banks and financiers have all but destroyed capitalism but then they've been allowed to but compliant governments.


I understand it perfectly, but you're expressing yourself in a way that makes it clear you don't even understand the word.

What kind of regulation? More of it? Less of it? On what? For what purpose? By whom?

I want market regulation, because that actually works. I presume you want regulation by lobbyists (government)?

Capitalism hasn't been around since 1913, half of every transaction is money and that is controlled by a central authority. The US has corporatism, that's the problem. Increasing corporatism wont solve the problem of it. Because corporatism is government power, regulation, taxation. The only remedy for that is free markets.

Investment bank departments, ie the risk takers, should never again be allowed to use the money from the retail banking department. This is the simple root cause of what happened. The easy money was too easy for the greed merchants to get their hands on and p1ss up the wall. No control means out of control. That's what happened.
Everything else is just waffle and smoke perpetrated by pretend economists who think the world works on theories rather than reality.


You blame the repeal of Glass-Seagall? Well lets check then if that was the cause. Did the problem occur first in banks or investment banks (which you don't seem to understand was unaffected by the regulation), it was the investment bank. So that explanation is stupid.

I agree they shouldn't have removed that regulation, but that wasn't the cause of anything. What caused the crisis was low interest rates fueling lending and F&F first buying into the market from 98 to 2004 creating the bubble and then after that being the largest buyer in the world of securitized mortgages. Just check their and the FED's balance sheet, it's filled with F&F backed financial products.

Same will happen to student loans btw, even though that's far off.

Greed doesn't cause anything. Everyone is always greedy, but they are also cautions.

You don't understand the problem and you clearly don't understand political economy. I'm so bored with the lot of you people who think watching this awful documentary somehow gives you insight into the markets.

But if you're so bright, give me a government regulation that could have been put in place that would solve bubbles. I mean you statists have been in charge for a hundred years now and proven that your system means less growth and more unemployment than free markets, but maybe you know just that one law that is missing that will fix it.


Giving the control to the government, which you and other blind people think is a good idea is ridiculous, they had control and they FAILED. You don't give them more rope to hang everyone with, you let the market handle it. That's the only way to get any sensible regulation. Because the people who are writing the regulations now are the lobbyists! How is that a good idea?! You want more of that?

"Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito"

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But if you're so bright, give me a government regulation that could have been put in place that would solve bubbles.


While financial bubbles will always spring up from time to time in a free market environment, hindsight 20/20 would dictate that the damage these bubbles would cause to the economy could be lessened if the government were to break up the big banks by putting a cap on the amount of assets that banks can hold. When banks have become too large to fail than the government has no choice but to interfere when things go south as in the case of government bailouts. Just think, if the government didn't intervene then the markets would have corrected themselves and the size of the financial sector would have been drastically reduced. So thus was birthed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street bill of 2010 which was designed to prohibit the bailing out of these large financial institutions. Yet in spite of the clear and present dangers that these mammoth banks pose for the economy in the event of a failure, there hasn't been a cap not to mention this bill is riddled with loopholes. Contrary to popular belief, these banks have actually grown much larger than they were in 2008. For example, Bank of America now holds $2.5 trillion in assets--which is equivalent to nearly 18 percent of GDP and affects every facet of Wall Street, from investment banking and Credit Default Swap underwriting to home and auto loans. Investors can see the writing on the wall as BAC share prices have gotten hammered over the past few months, losing nearly 40 percent! What's truly frightening is that if B of A ever goes belly up--failure will not be allowed to happen because of its interconnectedness with the entire economy according to a very recent article on this topic from Fortune magazine.


I don't claim to be an intellectual--as evidenced by my sometimes ignorant posts--but at least I have the presence of mind to heed the advice of leading economists. When they speak I'm all ears. For example Nobel Laureates James Tobin, Joseph Stiglitz, Paul Krugman and Dennis McFadden are all proponents of Financial Transactions Taxes (FTTs) which would do much to contain financial bubbles. Tobin coined the expression "Tobin Tax" which could be applied in the taxing of foreign exchange transactions. Heck--even current head of the National Economic Council and former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers endorsed FTTs which offer the best of both worlds by raising substantial revenue, reducing short-term volume trading without compromising or interfering with long-term market efficiency and allocation of capital.

One of my pet peeves is the morbidly obese nature of the financial sector--namely Wall Street--which commands a hugely disproportionate 51 percent of all profits. Case in point: The top dozen or so hedge fund mangers earned on average $1 billion each! If FFTs were implemented, they could dramatically reduce the sheer size of the financial sector by approximately 30 percent while increasing economy-wide productivity in the "real economy" by 0.8 percent--which would be ten times as effective as most regulations.

However, the regulation that would be most beneficial to America's real economy would be to restore tariffs on imported goods. Another would be to put a cap on how many immigrant workers are allowed to enter the country.

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So are you suggesting that during the bursting of an economic bubble, that the Federal Reserve should let the bubble run its natural course as some would argue? The main problem is, if the Central Bank sits on its hands and fails to reverse its monetary accommodation policy by soaking up excess liquidity, this will risk the collapse of its currency. On a smaller scale the government saw the need to implement policies such as the Troubled Asset Relief Program(TARP) to lessen the risk of the failure of the big banks and other financial institutions.


Yes, just look at the depression of 1920-21. First year was worse than the great depression of 1929-1946.

Heck, even Bernanke admits that the great depression happened because of the FED. Bernanke says this wont happened again because of Milton Friedman, well Friedman want to:

Abolish the FED!


The TARP-program only made things worse, it only delayed the problem.

So here's what I would suggest: The Central Banks and regulating agencies should pay keen attention to whether they should allow excessive monetary liquidity and must be especially cautious about implementing such expansionary monetary policy. And here's why: The common denominator with all economic bubbles is that they create excess demand and production. Each and every time a bubble bursts, consolidation must occur to alleviate the excess. So why not nip the bubble in the bud by ensuring that the big banks do not make it a practice of engaging in excessive leveraging(e.g., recent computer models suggest that excessive leveraging could be a key factor in causing financial bubbles) and enact laws to prohibit the Fed from flushing the economy with money supply as well as laws which prevent them from keeping interest rates too low for too long(i.e., 2001-2004), which may fuel booms in the short term which soon develop into bubbles, but exacerbate financial recovery in the long term resulting in major busts.

Because this is a zero sum game, Wall Street speculators profit by purchasing derivatives, by shorting securities directly or by investing overseas in financial markets such as China--while average investors have lost trillions of dollars in wealth often times because they lack the timely insider information which is privy to institutional investors. While tightening credit has a tendency to impede economic growth, it will prevent the confluence of equity and excess capacity which is the one true constant in all economic bubbles. China is vigilant in preventing credit and asset bubbles from spilling over into their "real" economy. While China will not be forever spared from an economic collapse, they have demonstrated the foresight to know that governmental regulation is absolutely crucial in their long-term financial success. 'Nuff said.


The FED creates the very bubble they are to over-see by inflation! We've known for quite some time that the causes of the business cycle are monetary. I don't trust any central authority to oversee this.


Instead of learning from China, learn from history. Learn from the US and the later part of the 19th century. Where there was tremendous growth.

My solution is so much easier than yours to explain but so much more complex and sophisticated in action. Let the market regulate the money supply and let the market regulate the financial sector.

"Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito"

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hey elim ...You seem to enjoy and understand ekonomiks! I'd suggest the govt should ask you to chime in and get your ideas in so we can get out of the quagmire. I like your equation but I'm stubborn I still see the 'quants' plying their wares in the towers of stockdom.........;-)...........

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