Conan will flop on the Tonight Show - The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien (2009) Discussion

[–] cjoklb 15 years ago

I embraced Leno around 2001

There's your problem.

Just another bitter chin fan. Move along people, nothing to see here.

And Dave did get a boost, by the way. 3.4 on Tuesday, beat Conan by 5 points.

Have fun watching the chin lose to a bunch of scripted drama shows at 10 PM with his good ol' safe, red state friendly humor!

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[–] 15 years ago

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[–] cjoklb 15 years ago

Truer words have never been spoken, comicon. I agree 100%. Jay is the Budweiser of late night hosts: not great, but appeals to the majority, for some reason.

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[–] liquid_filmmaking 15 years ago

Jay and his show always bothered me. It felt too plastic and disposable, too fake. I guess you guys already called it the Budweiser of comedy, it's also the McDonalds of comedy. Very reliable, and for many people it is a comfort food.

But for me, I get too much of it and it starts to unnerve me. I guess i need some spontaneity in humor, something that keeps it real and fearless.

Jay's show obviously worked for many viewers, so my hats off to him. But for me, it just always bothered me in some subconscious way.

I think Conan is already doing a more energetic show, but only time will tell if that is good enough for the corporate masters.

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[–] cjoklb 15 years ago

Jay fans talk in numbers because that is ALL he had. Sorry, but ratings doesn't equal quality. If it did, then American Idol would be one of the greatest shows in the history of television. Jay got his ratings because he was willing to be what mainstream America wanted him to be. The steak-n-potatoes, church-going, Budweiser drinking, pick-up-truck driving, George W Bush supporting, mainstream America. Dave during the 80's and early 90's was an edgy, unpredictable, wild man and even though Carson believed that Dave was the only guy suitable to take over the Tonight Show, they gave it to Leno because NBC saw Jay as the safer choice for their bottom line. I guess it paid off for THEM, but everyone else had to sit by and watch the best man lose to a hack.

Leno had his ratings, Dave has his critical acclaim. You can say Jay dominated Dave in the ratings, but Dave dominated the awards. "Late Show" won 12 awards (9 Emmys) and was nominated 75 other times; "Tonight" under Leno won 7 awards (4 Emmys) and was only nominated 41 other times. So even though Jay has the beloved bible belt and deep south in his pocket, intelligent, well informed critics side with Dave.

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[–] 15 years ago

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

Leno always had the best monologues. His comedy bits usually suck, and he gives a decent interview. Again I boycotted Leno, because I thought he backstabbed Letterman. It wasn't until 2001, that I decided to give Leno a chance after I quit watching Letterman and then Conan.

I watched Conan from day one of his show and was a fan and would post on his newsgroup which used to be the main place for Internet fans to gather, he's former jew girlfriend who worked at the show would post one sentence updates there. Anyway, I grew sick of Conan because for a long while he basically did the same bits and had the same schtick on his monolougue, I just had to denounce him after basically yelling at the screen how much he sucked. I did the same with Letterman in 1995 after he had this f'ing gigantic Slot machine or comedy machine on for six months straight. That was just comedy laziness.

And just watching both Letterman and Conan shows they still are basically doing the same old act. The thing about Letterman is that he is more biased on his political views and doesn't even try to be fair. He's also lazy. And it all stems from the fact that he has a contract that continued to pay him more than even Leno and CBS has no power over him. I think there is no reason in the world to sign him to anything longer than a year at a time at half the pay. CBS deserves what they get if they renew his contract for two years. He will always average a max of 3.0.

Conan on the other had will only get 2.5 max. There is no way he'll get new fans, especially people who watched Leno.

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[–] GForce59 13 years ago

What's chin doing now? Enlighten me if you will.

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[–] Bosseking 15 years ago

Sure.

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[–] 15 years ago

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

I said within three months. I'm great a making correct predictions. Not only flop movies on IMDB, but TV shows. I called Letterman becoming number two at late night, back in the day, on his newsgroup after I was a regular poster there, because if a core fan for years was thinking of quiting watching what about the marignal viewers.

There is a flaw in my prediction because I really don't have the hard numbers of Conan's 12:35 timeslot, I'm assuming about 1.8. It's going to be tough but I'm aiming toward the fence and calling sub 2.0 within three months. It it only hits 2.2 then I'll say it's a draw. Above 2.3 then I'll consider myself in error.

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[–] 15 years ago

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

No I said Conan will do a sub 2.0 rating within 3 months. And I did some research and Conan at times finished with as low as 1.4 OVERALL rating, and even lost to Ferguson at times at 12:35.

Here is how Conan can get a sub 2.0 rating. Some of Conan's audience could be Letterman fans who watched both shows. But again Dave has no upside and he's maxed out at 2.5-3.5 because people can't tolerate him at all. So some Leno fans have nowhere left to go, so its a matter of keeping them. That is why I say Conan won't and they'll leave late night talk show watching all together. Please apologize to me on this thread when Conan gets a sub 2.0 rating by September.

Another thing, if Conan doesn't get a sub 2.0 rating by September he'll get one by the end of 2009, becuase Leno will be back and he'll take some of his audience back and he'll provide a weak lead-in for Conan.

My suggestion for CBS is to fire Dave and move Craig Ferguson up to 11:35. He'll be 75 percent cheaper than Letterman, and he can compete with Conan. But this time Conan would not have that huge lead in audience he got from Leno.

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

Everything is still going according to plan. We will see a 2.3 rating or below by September 15th.

Weak monologue and guests, wierd humor that newer viewers don't or want to understand. The guy is in his mid forties so he isn't going to constantly add younger viewers to late night. He has his old 12:35 audience and some of that audience likes Dave better if they have to choose. I think they are just going to not watch network late night shows.
Conan will fail because its all a matter of keeping a lot of viewers who only watched Leno, and I don't think that is going to happen.

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[–] 15 years ago

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[–] A_rod 15 years ago

People, in case you forgot the rule on trolling here...

http://lh5.ggpht.com/carlos57775/SCobc6EL_hI/AAAAAAAABys/RG0y66Z3ZDY/s 288/Don%27t%20feed%20the%20troll.jpg

Any feeding of a troll has severe consequences.
Sure it may start like this
http://kidsdontgetit.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/gremlins2splash.jpg

but, it can quickly turn into this
http://www.concertshots.com/August%202006/cs-CarlosMencia10-Athens0816 06.JPG

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[–] 15 years ago

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

I was watching Conan when he was getting a 0.7 rating back in '93. I'm just stating a prediction and also bumping my post so it will still be here when it's time to gloat. Most of my predictions are usually right. Imagine your shock when Conan gets a 2.3 rating.
It's based on the fact of what Conan's ratings were at 12:35(1.5) and how I think the original Leno audience that watched NBC at 11:35 will decide to break the habit and not watch. Specifically using my experience as a former Conan veiwer to estimate that length of time it would take get sick of him. The time would be faster for a Leno only fan than a regular Conan fan.

And I'm not a Leno fan, always thought his comedy bit sucked, but his monologue was always watchable. And depending on the guest it had to be a pretty good one, to make me keep watching through Leno's comedy bits. I think Conan's comedy bits are his strength but they are repetitive, but I've only watched his shows from 93-2000, but they seem the same based on the few TSWCOB I've seen.

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

The week of June 29th the average rating for Conan was 2.1, that's for total audience.

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/07/09/%e2%80%9cnightline%e2%80%9d-was-1-among-total-viewers-adults-25-54-and-adults-18-49-for-the-week/22588

(Week of June 29, 2009)

TOTAL VIEWERS A25-54(000)/ Rtg A18-49(000)/ Rtg

ABC “Nightline” 4,020,000 1,590,000/ 1.3 1,320,000/ 1.0

CBS “Late Show” 3,580,000 1,530,000/ 1.2 1,100,000/ .8

NBC “Tonight” 2,420,000 1,270,000/ 1.0 1,290,000/ 1.0

Source: NTI

Okay Conan was in reruns, but I said within three months. I still think that Conan will get 2.0 rating for new episodes too. The magic number is 2.3 million total audience, because a ratings point equals 1.15 million viewers.

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[–] soldier_of_fortune_2 15 years ago

conan was wasnt live last week.. quiting trolling.

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

I said a 2.0 rating within three months. First off I don't recall Leno ever getting a 2.0 rating rerun or not, even a 3.0 rating would be a low rating for a Leno rerun. It's pretty pathetic rating and just because you don't like the message doesn't make it "trolling".

Again, Conan will get an unheard of 2.0 rating or below within three months of his show, I'll even say it can be a new episode. But I'm just noting that it already hit below the 2.3 rating, so I don't ever have to admit I'm wrong. I'm already proven right with this 2.1 rating that Conan got average throughout the week. Frankly, I wish they'd post each individual days, because it had to have hit below 2.0 on one of the days.

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[–] simpsonman 15 years ago

motallica/danny666/jussi/alexpro now?

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My package... IS IN MY POWER ZONE, BABY!!! - Conan O' Brien working for UPS

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

Okay it's official. I am right on my 'shocking' prediction that Conan would get a 2.0 rating, and it's a new episode!(I mean I was kind of hedging by not mentioning new, I was thinking a 2.0 for a rerun within 3 months.)

Again, I like Conan, but I honestly see him getting a sub 1.6 rating before the end of the year. My other new prediction is that he will average below a 2.0 rating for an entire week(new episodes) sometime after Leno starts in September.

Ratings will freefall once Leno starts in September, and also that a low ratings 'storyline' is known by the mainstream audience. We will see new lows.

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from lastest ratings press release:

LATE SHOW beat "The Tonight Show" in households (2.6/07 vs. 2.0/05, +30%) and viewers (3.68m vs. 2.82m, +30%). It was LATE SHOW’s largest margin of victory against an all first-run week of "Tonight Show" broadcasts in both households and viewers since the week ending Feb. 25, 2000

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[–] 15 years ago

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[–] Jmartoo7 15 years ago

Paul McCartney vs. Dana Carvey

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

Here's the actual numbers for week #8:

Conan: 1.8/5 2.51m viewers, 18-49 1.0, 25-54 Tie,
David: 2.4/6 3.32m viewers, 18-49 0.8, 25-54 Tie

I just want to maintain the theme I had from my Conan will flop thread that I started in early June. This is not about Letterman. I've always stated that his ratings will stay relatively the same. It is about Conan continuing to lose the Tonight show audience. It's just so obvious to see. He had a 1.4 rating at late night, who and why would more people want to watch his type of show, especially the Leno audience. Using my previous Conan viewing history and the rate I became disenchanted with his show(as a hardcore Conan fan) I projected an accelerated timeline it would take for the "Leno only" audience to be sick of him. It's definitely at a faster rate than I even expected. I thought it would be a solid two months of Conan bodyblow of lameness(aka pantomiming each joke, same batch of bits, etc), before their would be a slight downward tick then would rapidly excelerate.
I still see the ratings going down even worse. I think Conan is going to lose some core fans, his show has been that terrible lately.

The new variable I'm seeing is the core audience will abandon Conan, so I don't know where the botton will be. I thought a 1.5 rating would be the floor. Again I saw a free-fall of Conan ratings when Leno took over, but frankly Conan already chased the Leno viewers, so it may not be a factor. The new question is can he keep his base and maintain that 1.5 bottom rating.

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

Week of August 3rd ratings are in and Conan continues to get that 'outrageously low' rating of 2.0 that you mocked me for back on June 11th, when I made my shockingly bold prediction. A 2.0 rating was unheard of when I made it for the venerable Tonight Show.

Late Night ratings for 8-3 to 8-7 2009
Conan: 2.0/5 (+0.2), 2.94m viewers, 18-34 690k, 18-49 1.1 (1.5m).
David: 2.1/6 (repeats), 2.95m viewers, 18-34 350k , 18-49 0.7 (900k).

Again I will highlight a doubter from this thread and demand an apology from them. I will continue to bump this thread as long as Conan gets a 2.0 HH rating or below. This week's doubter is Goldenstate5. Who posted on July 6th using Conan's inflated first week's ratings "Currently he has an average of 3.6 and above and has a kick ass younger demographic. Your evidence behind this or are you just sticking to be a slimy, good-for-nothing troll?"

The fact is Conan only has a 1.0 rating(1.1 rating when it goes against LS reruns). That is pathetic it is not 3.6. Leno was getting a 1.6 in the 'younger demographic' rating under any circumstances it means failure. I WAS RIGHT. YOU WERE WRONG. ADMIT IT AND APOLOGIZE!!!

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[–] 15 years ago

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

The week of July 27th, Conan continued his sub 2.0 ratings streak. Remember on June 11th, I told you folks so, so every week of sub 2.0 ratings I will highlight a doubter.

On June 11th, comicon said "Looks like Conan is already rebounding. Good call though. You came in just when your prediction looked like a safe call for you, after his ratings started to tank for a few days, and then they immediately shot back up! What other bold predictions have you? Ha ha. "

As I replied to you a day later I said within three months, and boy has Conan's ratings really tanked, we still have over a month to go and he continues to post sub 2.0 ratings. I was right. You were wrong. Please apologize.

Current rating for Conan the week of July 27th, 2009 is 1.8.

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[–] simpsonman 15 years ago

well see there's already a ratings thread with 50 pages. we don't need you telling us the ratings as well.

and frankly no one gives a *beep* about your opinions. if you don't like the show then don't watch. simple as that.

maybe it's during your mel gibson prayer time

....
It's uterUS, not uterYOU! - Homer convincing Marge to become a surrogate.

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

Conan got a 1.9 rating the week of August 10th. THIS WAS AGAINST LETTERMAN RERUNS! Again it's an embarrassment of riches on the Conan will flop thread. I thought he'd tank closer to the end of the third month. But he was getting sub 2.0 ratings about a month into his run.

This week's doubter is Simpsonman3000. He was full of piss and vinegar thinking Conan would succeed on the Tonight Show. Now I sense that there is real fear in the mentally challenged simspsonman5000 that his favorite host could be sitting out for three years of his contract.

Who knows what will happen about Conan on the Tonight Show. THE POINT IS I WAS RIGHT AND YOU WERE WRONG. CONAN DID GET A SUB 2.0 RATING WITHIN THREE MONTHS OF MY JUNE 11th, 2009 prediction. Please apologize.

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[–] simpsonman 15 years ago

we'll apologize when you run back under your bridge, anti-semetic troll

go kill some jews which i bet you fantasize about every day of your life and leave imdb alone

....
It's uterUS, not uterYOU! - Homer convincing Marge to become a surrogate.

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

You got nothing to say about Conan sub 2.0 rating. You thought I was would be wrong but I was right. Please apologize.

I see you read some of my "Funny People" comments. I did predict that it would flop and my opinion was that it was too jewish and that people in the center of the country wouldn't see it. I was right. I also said it would make between 18-22ish million on opening weekend. correct. And that it would take in less than 55 million, looking good on that one too. I made this prediction A WEEK BEFORE THE FILM WAS RELEASED. Experts were saying it would make up to 40 million opening weekend. I amaze myself. I also said on the Funny People board, that Julie and Julia would make way more than Funny People even though it was on 700 less screens. Again I was correct. It's a gift.(tm)

Quit calling me an anti-semite, not that's it's a bad thing, but it's VERY inaccurate. I aint no jew lover mind you, but don't nessarily hate the jew.

But let's get back on topic. Conan got a sub 2.0 rating. It was a bold prediction back on June 11th, but now it's considered a normal week, which should be very sad for Conan fans.

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[–] 15 years ago

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

Conan had another sub 2.0 ratings this week of August 17th. Since it was a Conan rerun week I'm just going to post a previous entry on the Conan will flop thread mocking a doubter who thought I would be wrong when I ended up being right.
From August 6th.

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On June 11th, comicon said "Looks like Conan is already rebounding. Good call though. You came in just when your prediction looked like a safe call for you, after his ratings started to tank for a few days, and then they immediately shot back up! What other bold predictions have you? Ha ha. "

As I replied to you a day later I said within three months, and boy has Conan's ratings really tanked, we still have over a month to go and he continues to post sub 2.0 ratings. I was right. You were wrong. Please apologize.

Current rating for Conan the week of July 27th, 2009 is 1.8.

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

Conan got another sub 2.0 rating for the week of August 28th,2009. It was a 1.9 rating. Again during the Leno era sub 3.0 HH ratings were unheard of, now there is going to be a celebration by Conan apologists if he exceeds 2.0 rating.
This week's doubter I'm going to highlight is Footbag32. The VERY SAME DAY I made my bold prediction on June 11th, 2009 that Conan would get sub 2.0 ratings within 3 months. Footbag32 said "sure". Well how about having the courtesy to come on this thread and post an apology for doubting my prediction. I WAS RIGHT! You were maybe not wrong, but you were sceptical of my bold predition.

Again I will highlight a doubter each week that Conan gets a sub 2.0 ratings, which should be every week.

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

Bump. Conan sucks, another sub 2.0 rating. I'm not even bothering bashing Conan's lameness, it's already a forgone conclusion he'll be replaced sometime in 2010. And man what a wimp Conan is he had a little boo boo and calls off the show. It just proves he has no heart, anyone besides him would have sucked it up and continued the show.

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[–] shinesinpinesII 15 years ago

you've been on IMDb for way too long.

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IT IS YOUR BIRTHDAY.

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[–] sbrobin 15 years ago

How is it a foregone conclusion he will be replaced when Conan's contract extends past 2010?

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[–] danny666 15 years ago

Just another update. Conan continues to get sub 2.0 ratings. The week of September 28th he got another 1.9 HH rating. He is also starting to lose even in the key demo rating to Letterman. Not that Letterman matters, Conan is sucking because he sucks.(tm) What Letterman does is totally separate. Audiences are leaving because Conan is terrible, not because Letterman is a better alternative, read the my original prediction.

Like I said in my bold prediction on June 11th. Conan will lose his audience because he will slowly annoy his audience and it was a factor of time. There is definitely a formula, I think the half life was about three months to four months, so in another four months he'll lose another half of his audience.

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[–] Aranda_Bay 15 years ago

Yeah and after another four months you're coming back here to tell us that four months is quarter life and the show will actually flop in a year's time. Amazing prediction Nostradamus!

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[–] noogyburger 15 years ago

You're going to be saying the same thing for over a year and you'll be wrong. And Conan doesn't suck. YOU suck.

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Squirrels, lightbulbs, spaghettios

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[–] danny666 14 years ago

Bump.

Today is November 11th and just like September 11th we must honor and also remember the fifth and third month anniversary of my stunning "bold" prediction on June 11th, 2009 that Conan would get a sub 2.0 HH rating within three months. That was an outrageous prediciton at the time but now I think Conan would celebrate getting a 2.0 rating.

Last week Conan got a 1.8 rating, I'm still right and I stand by the post on this thread that Conan will leave the 11:35 timeslot in 2010 or earlier.

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[–] noogyburger 14 years ago

Wrong.

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Squirrels, lightbulbs, spaghettios

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[–] thbryn 14 years ago

Latest ratings from the NYT:http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/ "In the weeknight late-night standings, Craig Ferguson of CBS hit a milestone. He beat “Late Night” on NBC for the first time in that 18-to-49 audience; that show is now hosted by Jimmy Fallon. Jimmy Kimmel of ABC also managed a tie with “Late Night” in that group for the first time.

David Letterman again easily dominated the “Tonight Show With Conan O’Brien” on NBC among total viewers, 3.9 million to 2.3 million. But again Mr. O’Brien fared better with younger viewers, beating Mr. Letterman among viewers 18 to 34 and tying him with a 0.9 rating among those between 18 and 49. Mr. Letterman won the other important ad-sales group, those between 25 and 54, easily.

“Nightline” on ABC had 3.9 million viewers as well, and and 1.0 in the 18-to-49 group, though that is for a half-hour, versus an hour for the other late-night shows."

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[–] danny666 14 years ago

Bump. Conan sucks. I think he'd demand a raise if he got a 2.0 rating. I haven't even bothered to look at the ratings, I think it's safe to say the HH ratings are 1.7 or below. Just remember I called it, and I stand by my prediction that Conan will be removed from the Tonight show sometime in 2010. Though the fact that Letterman also sucks and, AGAIN, like I said in my brilliant June 11th, post that he won't gain an audience, it's just that the previous Tonight Show audience will disperse and either not watch TV or someother non-Letterman or Conan channel, it's possible that the bar has been so lowered that Conan could stay. Whatever the case, Conan won't stay becuase of improved ratings.

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[–] 14 years ago

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[–] bwahahachick 14 years ago

Do you ever shut up? Nobody cares.

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[–] cjoklb 14 years ago

Your buddy Leno is doing A LOT worse =)

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[–] 14 years ago

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[–] danny666 14 years ago

Did I call it? Of course we have my brilliant June 11th prediction that Conan would get a sub 2.0 rating within 3 months, when that was an unheard of low rating at the time.(Right now it would be a dream come true rating for Conan.)

Another unheralded prediction on this board I then said that Conan would be gone from the tonight show in 2010. I'm kind of kicking myself that I didn't make a more narrow prediction, looking back it should have been obvious that the change would happen during the Winter Olympic break.

I did mention last June that Conan would be the next host of America's got Talent, when he was removed from TTS. I was kind of joking, but the point of that 'joke' is that if he was removed from the Tonight Show he wouldn't be moved to the 12:35 slot. He's proved he has no upside, so they would just pay to sit him or offer a buyout and release him.

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[–] danny666 14 years ago

You heard it here first.

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[–] intexor 14 years ago

How were you right about Conan when he has to move out of the way for Leno who's ratings were in question here, not Conan's.

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[–] danny666 14 years ago

Looks like it will be official any day now.

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[–] OrangeCatholic 14 years ago

Hahaha. This is comic gold. Conan is old shtick. Leno was alright. Letterman is lazy.

The worst thing about the internet is that if you're right, you get to meet the 5.9 billion people who are wrong.

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[–] danny666 14 years ago

I called it. I knew he wouldn't get a wide audience at 11:30, I just couldn't see where was his audience going to come from. It sure as hell wasn't going to be Jay's audience.
It's like horse racing, Conan was moving up in class, and with the tougher competition he was doomed to fail. I still think he could have a long career if he 'drops down' to cable.

He will bomb on FOX, because there really isn't an audience for a 11:00 PM talk show. People watching the other three networks are going to watch local news. Also if you think NBC Leno affiliates are hard to control, imagine the FOX affiliates asked to give up their primo 11:00 time slot, they have shows they already paid for. I predict Conan would air at 1:00 am on some markets.

on a side note:

Conan trivia fact: If Houston didn't air Conan's NBC Late Night show at 2:30 AM, Conan's children would never have been born. Why because it was a running gag for the first five years of his show, blah blah. I'm bored. he he

Moral of the story I was right. Now that it is a proven fact that I was right, I'd really liked some long deserved credit for my vision.

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[–] noogyburger 14 years ago

Now that it is a proven fact that I was right, I'd really liked some long deserved credit for my vision

go f-ck yourself

TEAM CONAN
Squirrels, lightbulbs, spaghettios

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[–] liquid_filmmaking 14 years ago

I'll give you credit for being the most pathetic, unfunny troll i've ever come across.

your entire life revolves around ranting about things you despise, like Conan and jews.

I can only imagine a what stinking, disgusting person you are in real life...and I feel sorry for whoever has to sit next to you at the local library while using their computers.

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[–] jibbajabba_9 14 years ago

You called it, so what! Many of the (pre Conan)Tonight Show fans called it.

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[–] luvjd 14 years ago

Looks like you and Howard Stern called it.

"Why do we always have to be the stupid country?"

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[–] djroomba 14 years ago

I think Conan's failing on tonight show as he never should have been there inn the first place. Only because it seems to be an antiquated show that absolutely must dilute the host and appeal to the old viewers, its just a waste f Conan's talent. I keep hearing the same criticism over and over which is completely false, that Conan's humor worked more on Late Night. No, Conan worked more on Late Night cos he was able to do his humor. He is only just starting to do his humor on late night now. There was nights in last couple of weeks where he was edgy and funny, but it shud be like that all the time like late night. When they come back hopefully things will become a but more comfortable. Andy back on the couch s fantastic sign.

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[–] thatguyandrew 14 years ago

Conan's not failing on the Tonight Show. He's actually doing quite well; his 18 - 49 demo has beaten Letterman and Nightline rather well for the past month or so, and the percentage of his total audience that falls within that range is great enough that I'm sure nobody at NBC fears that that number will go anywhere but up.

Now, you may say that he only gets half the total audience that his competition does, and that's quite true... but that really doesn't matter. Advertiser's don't look at total viewers. They only look at 18-49. And advertisers are the only thing networks really care about.

See for yourself; there's a good comprehensive article about it here:
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/12/12/faq-do-total-viewers-matter/36064

If Conan gets good 18-49 ratings, then advertisers will pay more to get their ads on the show, which means that NBC makes more money, which means that they're much more likely to not only keep Conan on the air, but extend his contract indefinitely. After all, his 18-49 is actually a good deal higher than Leno's average was... and still is for that matter.

At this point, Conan is getting better ratings in late night than Leno is in primetime... and that's unheard of!

So long, and thanks for all the fish!

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[–] 14 years ago

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[–] Bucky_Bleichert 14 years ago

Wow, you called it early pal. Heh heh...

Have a 7Up

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[–] Jerry_Sprinkle 14 years ago

Jay Leno flopped on The Jay Leno Show.

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[–] DAMIAN001 14 years ago

OP even got the numbers right. OP Congrats.

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[–] fritzaren 14 years ago

"Moral of the story I was right. Now that it is a proven fact that I was right, I'd really liked some long deserved credit for my vision."

Go suck Jay Leno's cock then.

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[–] cjoklb 14 years ago

Go suck Jay Leno's cock then.

He would gladly do that if he had the opportunity. That is, if the timing doesn't conflict with WWE Smackdown.

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[–] 14 years ago

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[–] danny666 14 years ago

Thanks agoac,
I really did think Leno's show would be weak, but I thought it would peform at the very low bar that NBC set.(1.5 key demo average for the week) And it did. But of course even at that level it would provide a very weak lead-in for the already flopping Conan. So a freefall in the fall ratings for 'CoCo' was definitely going to happen.
I originally thought they were going to cancel Conan late April/early May. And yes, I thought it would be Leno to take his spot. I thought there wouldn't be that huge a buyout by then.

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[–] danny666 14 years ago

I was sooooo right. And tomorrow is the day that little did Conan fans know would come(I did.)...Leno's triumphant return to the Tonight Show after Conan failing miserably.
But hey at least look on the bright side, Conan did join Twitter, that probably wouldn't have happened if his show didn't flop. As a former fan back in '93-94 it did irritate fans that he was so computer illiterate, and would make light of internet fans.
Leno doesn't need twitter he had the number one late night show and he will 'Get Back' to number one! The Chin Begins a new era in late night tomorrow. I can't wait to see all the new changes to the show.

ETA: Just watched the show, Leno's did a great job. He'll easily regain his crow as king of late night, and with Leno's success it basically will mean Conan is finished as a talk show host. He'll be behind the scenes working on shows for his production company.

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[–] intexor 14 years ago

So go jerk off some more to the chin and see if we care.

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[–] noogyburger 14 years ago

The Tonight Shows sucks now, thanks to to your friend Jay Leno, so nobody cares anymore, ass hole.

Squirrels, lightbulbs, spaghettios

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[–] OtherBrotherDarryl 14 years ago

Bragging is something only douche nozzles do.

This thread is embarrassing. You should be embarrassed, not for creating it, but for bumping it like a self-righteous retard.

I've seen some THINGS, man. And some STUFF. I wouldn't recommend it!

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[–] danny666 14 years ago

I was right, but on to new topics. I was ready to post a Conan will flop on FOX subject, it was soooooo obvious, my prediction was going to be 14 months. But Conan actually made the correct choice in going to TBS. He has one more shot and he already got paid by NBC so the TBS show is a safer bet. The new mission is to battle Jon Stewart and try to get the larger share of the leftist douchebag audience at that timeslot.

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[–] oreilly88 14 years ago

I like how you agree with the choice and yet still the biggest a-hole troll on the planet. Wow.

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[–] danny666 14 years ago

One year anniversary bump. I was so right, you were wrong.

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[–] 14 years ago

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[–] intexor 14 years ago

Thanks for showing up again danny666, we were in need of a good joke.

So I guess all of us were right when we said Leno would not do better than Conan did in his second turn as Tonight Show host. And unlike Conan, there is no chance his ratings will improve over time.

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[–] cjoklb 14 years ago

How does it feel knowing Leno is doing worse than the guy you predicted would flop? That must sting a bit.

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[–] DeathRay93 14 years ago

I hate everyone.

No really Jay Leno took my homework!

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[–] dddddd 14 years ago

Shouldn't we DEMAND danny 666 apologize to Conan fans? He practically had Tourettes demanding apologies from others not so long ago.

"The tour is over. As I stare at the horizon, the wind ruffles my beard gently."

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[–] cjoklb 14 years ago

danny666 is an idiot. Don't feed the troll.

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[–] Dextrousleftie 14 years ago

Leno's ratings as low as they were in 1992. Predicted that too, did you, you pathetic twerp? Thought not.

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[–] 14 years ago

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[–] danny666 14 years ago

I was right. And before people mention Leno's ratings, it's a non-issue. Conan destroyed Leno's timeslot, Leno built up(aka maintained Carson's audience) so Conan had a higher starting point. When Leno returned the audience already dispersed and Leno was also damaged in the move to primetime. My issue was Conan flopping on his own.
I'm saying that Conan's audience would be sub 1.0 if he continued. Leno saved and created an audience in that timeslot that would have been lost.

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[–] 14 years ago

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[–] cjoklb 14 years ago

I'm saying that Conan's audience would be sub 1.0 if he continued.

Leno has been at 0.9 for weeks, and has been tying Letterman.

Might want to check your facts before opening your mouth and making yourself look like an idiot.

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[–] danny666 13 years ago

Still right two years later. I made no prediction about Conan's TBS show, but he is getting 0.3 ratings in the key demo and getting destroyed by Stewart. I don't know if Conan's TBS Show will be around by the time I celebrate the fourth anniversary of my bold prediction. It's a coin toss.

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[–] danny666 12 years ago

Three years ago I made my stunning prediction and I just want to say that I was right and I think it's a time for the doubters to revisit this thread and see how they were slowly proved wrong and that I was right. So right. In fact it went beyond my wildest dreams. Not only was Conan booted off the network in record time, but Leno actually came back and took back his time slot and show in triumph!(not that I'm a Leno fan, but it just put an exclamation point in the defeat.)
Four years when they announced that Conan would take over the Tonight Show, I just kept thinking 'wow why would they do that? I hope it fails.' It's obvious to see that Conan would flop on the Tonight Show. And it ended up being true. The result made me very content. So notice I'm not bashing Conan after he was booted. I didn't 'not like Conan', as I was a former fan who just happened to realized he sucked, but I mearly was cheering that he'd be booted from The Tonight Show.
It was looking like he'd be booted from his TBS show last year, but thanks to TBBT, he is getting the good lead-in he obviously requires. Good for him.

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[–] danny666 11 years ago

Wow. Has it been four years since I made this stunning prediction? I know now it seems obvious that Conan would fail as Tonight Show host, but to say it a mere two months later when Conan was at the height of his power as Tonight Show host? Amazing and may I say 'bravo'.
Leno retiring does nothing to degrade the stunning prediction I made. And notice I didn't even have the audacity to say that Leno would be the one to replace Conan when he failed. This prediction was made before Leno started his 10 PM show.(Of course after seeing his prime time show, I would have also predicted Leno would be the one to replace Conan.)
Conan is getting miniscule ratings in the demo on TBS, but I'm sure he's getting paid less than he initially signed for so they're at least breaking even. Good for him.

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[–] 11 years ago

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[–] victor-200 10 years ago

I agree about Fallon. I find him unwatchable.

''I'm fortunate the pylons were not set to a lethal level."

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[–] danny666 10 years ago

I swore I thought the anniversary of my bold prediction was June 13th.

Anyway, four years and 367 days ago I made a bold prediction. It was considered outrageous at the time, but I held firm and was proved right. Sure Leno had reclaimed his late night spot, came and went. Conan has also found his little niche on cable and has been renewed. I have no opinion on Fallon and that could be a good thing. This is about the bold prediction and how I was sooo right and others were very wrong. So on this almost fifth anniversary I encourage others to read each post on this thread and learn from its teachings and not let it drop off and perish from IMDB.