If you notice, we first see the missionaries and the preacher briefly when Gideon (Pierce Brosnan) rides through but doesnt stop at all. The Preacher watches Gideon ride through and has a concerned look on his face. He could see his condition, yet the man doesnt stop for food and water?
Then we next see the missionaries and the Preacher with much more screen time when Carver and his Goon show up in their pursuit of Gideon. The Preacher has time to get to know their character, and remembering Gideon riding through earlier with a wounded arm and a look of desperation like a man being hunted...well the Preacher figured out that these must be the men pursuing the wounded man so he stole their ammo.
This is what I got out of it upon my first viewing, otherwise why show the scene of the missionaries seeing Gideon ride through for just 10 or 15 seconds of screen time?
The Preacher had a wound from fighting in the frontier, he was good with a gun, and intelligent enough to keep his people alive as well. So it makes sense he could figure people out rather quickly.
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