Allan Lichtmann says Donald Trump will lose in 2024
Allan Lichtmann (of American University) 13 Keys to the White House - correct since 1984:
1 • Party mandate: After the midterm elections the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
Advantage: TRUMP
2 • Contest: The incumbent candidate is nominated on the first ballot and wins at least two-thirds of the delegate votes.
Advantage: BIDEN
3 • Incumbency: The sitting president is the party candidate.
Advantage: BIDEN
4 • Third party: A third-party candidate wins at least 5 percent of the popular vote.
Advantage: BIDEN (for now, as of 2-7-2024)
5 • Short-term economy: The National Bureau of Economic Research has either not declared a recession, or has declared it over prior to the election.
Advantage: BIDEN
6 • Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two terms.
Advantage: BIDEN
7 • Policy change: The administration achieves a major policy change during the term comparable to the New Deal or the first-term Reagan Revolution.
Advantage: BIDEN
8 • Social unrest: There is no social unrest during the term that is comparable to the upheavals of the post-civil war Reconstruction or of the 1960s, and is sustained or raises deep concerns about the unraveling of society.
Advantage: BIDEN
9 • Scandal: There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches upon the president
Advantage: BIDEN
10 • Foreign or military failure: There is no major failure during the term comparable to Pearl Harbor or the Iran hostage crisis that appears to significantly undermine America's national interests or threaten its standing in the world.
Advantage: TRUMP
11 • Foreign or military success: There is a major success during the term comparable to the winning of World War II or the Camp David Accords that significantly advances America's national interests or its standing in the world.
Advantage: TRUMP
12 • Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower or is an inspirational candidate comparable to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.
Advantage: TRUMP
13 • Challenger charisma: The challenger party candidate is not a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower and is not an inspirational candidate comparable to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.
Advantage: TRUMP