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What made you believe Global Warming?


There is probably something particular that caused you to believe, like for instance hearing that 97% of scientists agree, or a report about predicted economic damage, or just a suspicion that oil companies are damaging the environment in some way.

The 97% figure seems to be the most common argument. It's a classic appeal to authority. It's not the normal way to argue. We don't say that the Earth is round because 97% of geologists agree. As soon as a scientist starts asking me to trust him I immediately become suspicious. That is not the behavior of a scientist. A scientist should make a nerdy argument that is so complex a layman can't understand it. And a scientist would never be certain of anything either. For example even if you asked something simple like "how long will eggs keep in my refrigerator", you're going to get an extremely long answer emphasizing all sorts of reservations and uncertainty. Gravity and evolution seem rock solid yet we call them "theories" because we always hold to the possibility they are completely wrong no matter how well studied they are. Scientists used to have a reputation for being irritating in their contrarianism, the type of people who would argue against common sense all day long just to be difficult and just to be right based on the most insignificant technicality. Group think is not a trait of scientists.

Some people would say that goes to show just how real global warming is. I don't think that's what's going on. Doesn't Big Oil own our government? Why would they allow this secret to get out? Look how they contained that disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. They wouldn't buy off a few key scientists. They would buy off university departments, and redirect everything from the top down. In fact we can verify this. The premier research institute for the UN, the CRU, was founded by Big Oil! Wikipedia explicitly lists BP Shell and Rockefeller as the founders. 97% of scientists don't have jobs if they don't agree. They don't know anyway because we're not talking about geniuses in lab coats discovering new things about the world in expensive laboratories. We're talking about compartmentalized worker drones compiling statistical reports for political bodies.

The details don't matter because the point is that the 97% figure is causing some people to disbelieve rather than believe, for a whole host of reasons having to do with life experience. Haven't you ever looked into a scientific issue to discover that the vast majority of scientists had it completely backwards? What about nutrition, with the Food Pyramid, or saturated fat and cholesterol, salt, meat, eggs, coffee, anything?

I'm just curious why this argument is used so much and how it could be convincing to anyone.

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