Wakanda Flop Forever


no one wants to see this...

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I mean... you ARE a no one.

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Bravo, Jake👏🏻 Well struck!

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You are basing this on what?

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no chadwick

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Dude or Dudette, you need to BUY a clue.

Black Panther did well because it was a well written and well-acted movie. Chadwick was not the draw for the movie before the fact.

One more thing, I predict that your statement of "Flop" will be a moving target that will reflect your "desire" to see the film not succeed rather than a prediction of the actual financial performance of the film for Marvel/Disney.

What say you?

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dude.

it was not a good movie, it was just a circus spectacle that everyone showed up to watch. because it was the first all black comic movie. it wasnt that good to be honest. more than likely it will make a billion because it will be another circus spectacle because people love big dumb stupid movies with ridiculous plots that have lots of splosions.

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"more than likely it will make a billion"

...so it won't be a flop, and many many people will see it. That negates your entire original post.

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the appeal of black panther was to give young black boys their own super hero. Now you are telling them they can't have one. Where's all the men in Wakanda? M'baku lives up in the Jabari Land, the rest of the trailer was all Women. Shuri, the queen, okoye, Nakia, all the Dora Milage, RiRi. Letitia Wright left bad taste in people's mouth with her comments, plus no one will buy her as Black Panther. They should have recast the role or postpone the movie to let emotions settle down.

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Agreed. I really liked the character of T'Challa as well, I thought Marvel gave great introductions to both T'Challa and Spider-Man in Captain America: Civil War.

This film looks miserable and is apparently 2 hours and 41 minutes long. The new trailer looks quite generic as well. I'd have much preferred the continuation of T'Challa's story with a recasting of the character. Kevin Feige said something recently about how the "world is still healing from Chadwick's passing" which I don't think is the case. It was sad and shocking when he died but none of us knew him and I certainly don't think it's disrespectful to Chadwick to recast the role, heck he seemed to love the character from the interviews and like you said he was a superhero for young black boys, he probably wanted the character to continue after his death.

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They needed that badly.

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What a dickhead. A racist cowardly one.

It will be a "flop"............."It will make a billion"

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A racist who wants to see Chadwick Boseman?

That’s a weird take.

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Lol..too funny..

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lolz

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This didn't age very well. lol

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No, I imagine this wanker Forever thing will have a big climax at the box office.

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They obviously do, tracking 175 ow you idiot

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Money doesn't equate to quality. Remember when Transformers 4 made a billion?

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Response is to the OP, not sure why you responded in this manner.

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Because this is a website that talks about movies. Whats the etiquette in responding to others?

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No idea wtf you are taking about home boy, enjoy wakanda for ever.

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It will be a huge flop. Bubba guarantees it.

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No it wont, and you know.

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It wont make a billion, which technically makes it a flop.

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Why does it technically make it a flop? Is it because your jealous of marvels success and want it to be a flop?

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Because the first movie made a billion, even though it was a terrible movie. This one will be even worse. Marvel just keeps making the same movie over and over. I cant believe people keep paying to watch them.

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Black panther was fantastic, as are nost marvel movies, each one is unique, dr strange, spiderman and now this. Hit after hit.

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They are all formulaic. The villains are always defeated in the 3rd act. Our society has been dumbed down so much by these movies that people actually think CBM's are all good movies.

Remember when Transformers 4 made a billion?

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I remember when end game made 2 billion and is an epic cbm, cry harder

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Avatar made 2.8b and now people are saying that movie is dumb and outdated. People are programed to watch CBM's. Thats pretty much peoples only option these days as well.

Hollywood is out of ideas so they just regurgitate the same thing. Its the same thing happening in the music industry. No new musical styles have been played since 2005.

Whats the most popular music genre these days anyways?

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They watch them because they enjoy them, plenty of other movies people can see

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https://moviechat.org/tt9114286/Black-Panther-Wakanda-Forever/636dcde7a9ca64088a139167/Arguably-THE-worst-MCU-movie-to-date

lol

Budget
250 million USD

Wont make a profit.

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Its been out 2 weeks and made 561 million so far, lol, you sure about that?

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WORLDWIDE
$579,759,902

This didnt age very well. lol

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579 after 2 weeks? Thats brilliant, how much did black adam make? You might want to wait till wakanda forever is out of the cinemas, this has a lot of legs

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As of Thanksgiving it had brought in $580 million. Even if the budget really is $250 million, which is certainly an exaggerated amount, it's already recouped that and then some in its first 14 days.

MCU movies, like all blockbusters, are given a greater percentage of tickets sales during the first few weeks, in exchange for letting a theater show a film that's guaranteed to pack cinemas. But even if you ignore that, and pretend Disney is only getting the normal 60% of domestic ticket sales, and 40% of international sales, they've already made $296,258,080.

The reported promotional budget, again no doubt exaggerated, is $100 million. Typically, it's closer to $30 to $40 million, but let's go with the number that's been inflated to spur audience interest and write off taxes. In that case, the film needs to earn $350 million. It is less than $54 million away from that after only 14 days.

If we are working in the real world, and using realistic estimates of production and promotion cost, and realistic estimates of ticket revenue, the film has already turned a profit, but even if we accept the largest possible production and promotional costs, and the lowest possible ticket revenues, there's no scenario where the film doesn't end up making a large profit.

Realize that once it leaves theaters, already profitable, it will make a lot more money from home video sales, streaming revenue, toy licensing, and so on.

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With $330 million worldwide in its initial dates (and a reported $250 million budget before marketing)

Its on the internet for everyone to see.

Using the 2.5 multiplier. Wakanda needs to make a $625 million to break even. Then there is taxes, fees, splitting profits with theaters and investors and payouts to Executives. Its not like the studio is going to get a check for $500m.

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That isn't how it works at all.

The reported budgets are always inflated, partly to build fan interest, and partly to increase tax write-offs. However, if we take the $250 million at face value, then that's $250 million the film needs to earn to cover the cost of making it.

Promotion is another story. Estimates of what it costs to promote a blockbuster film vary widely, and no one knows precisely how much is spent. Some experts say $30-40 million is the norm, others say it costs as much as $100 million to promote. So there's, at most, another $100 million the film needs to earn.

You've left out an important revenue stream for the film, which is the marketing support it receives from corporate partners. Coca-Cola, Ford, McDonald's, and many other brands pay Disney for their partnership opportunities. Eternals received $100 million in such support, and Black Panther almost certainly received even more than that. It's almost certain that the entire promotional budget for the film was covered by that revenue.

Looking at the revenue we can directly track, i.e. ticket sales, we can see that the film has so far earned in its first 20 days:

Domestic ticket sales: $374,279,837
Disney gets 65% of that: $243,281,894

International ticket sales: $308,564,937
Disney gets 40% of that: $123,425,975

That's $431,990,912 in revenue from ticket sales alone. Add in $100,000,000 from the corporate partners, which is certainly far less than it actually got, and we see:

Cost to make movie: $250 million
Cost to promote movie: $100 million (at most)

Earned so far: $532 million

Profit after 20 days: $182 million

Now add in however much more it's going to earn during its run in the theater, how much it will make from home video sales, how much streaming revenue it will generate, and how much it will earn from toy sales and so forth, and the profit only grows.

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"The reported budgets are always inflated, partly to build fan interest, and partly to increase tax write-offs."

This is the second dumbest thing I have read on the internet.

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You do you. It's your choice to believe everything corporations put in their P.R. releases as fact. I'm skeptical. Interesting that you ignored all the mathematic proof and focused only on the one opinion statement that was unrelated to the math.

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Mathematical proof? You just made up a bunch of numbers.

If you can cite all your sources for the information you provided then I will never doubt you again.

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Source? Box Office Mojo...

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You can use Google to learn that the corporate partnerships Disney struck with advertisers was worth over $100 million.

https://deadline.com/2022/11/black-panther-wakanda-forever-box-office-marketing-campaign-nba-lexus-adidas-target-1235171140/

That negates the $100 million we assumed they spent on promotion. It's all free. The only remaining expense would be television ads, on which they spent $37 million. They certainly covered that and then some from the corporate income, but we can subtract that if you like.

https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/314947/disneys-black-panther-spends-37-million-on-nat.html

The ticket sales data is on boxofficemojo.com

It's widely known that studios keep 65% of domestic ticket sales, 40% of international ticket sales, and only 25% of Chinese ticket sales. Google can help you verify that if you are skeptical.

Let's update the numbers:

After 24 days:

Domestic Ticket Sales: $393,724,077
International: $339,300,000

Disney's cut:

Domestic: $255,920,650
International: $135,720,000
Total Net from Ticket Sales: $391,640,650

Well over the cost of making the film, even if the exaggerated figure of $250 million is true.

Even if you subtract $37 million in TV ads, which certainly was covered from the sponsorship income, the film has still made $104,640,650 so far, with much more to come.

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I'm a bit surprised you got an idiot to stop replying to you. Usually, stupid people don't know when to quit. . .even when confronted by simple facts.

This has gotten predictably, progressively worse over the last few years. Sad but encouraging that you've had even this small accomplishment. . .bravo to you, sir.

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As William Demarest said in The Great McGinty, one of my favorite films of all time, "ya can't get away from arithmetic."

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This what I found on Google.

The budget was $250 million.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Panther:_Wakanda_Forever#cite_note-BudgetVariety-2

https://variety.com/2022/film/box-office/black-panther-box-office-opening-weekend-estimates-1235425710/

However, it may not reach the coveted box office milestone as easily as its predecessor. That’s because the $250 million-budgeted “Wakanda Forever” doesn’t yet have a release date in China (where the first movie earned $105 million)

It's commonly accepted that 2.5x is a good ballpark rule for how much a film needs to gross worldwide to make back its production budget.

On average, an MCU film needs a multiplier of 2.37 to be profitable.. A DCEU film needs a multiplier of 2.38.

Even with the current state of the Chinese market for blockbusters, the 2.5 rule is an overestimate. Unless a film breaks out in China, we can lower it slightly to 2.4 and still have a fairly reliable indicator of whether a film will be profitable.

Here's the formula if anyone wants to calculate these numbers themselves. As you can see, the 50-40-25 formula is baked in.

Dom = domestic gross
OS = overseas gross (or worldwide gross - domestic gross)
China = Chinese gross

Domestic breakeven, d = budget/(0.5 + 0.25*China/Dom + 0.4*(OS-China)/Dom)

Worldwide breakeven = d*(1 + China/Dom + (OS-China)/Dom)

Breakeven multiplier = Worldwide breakeven / budget

The general rule is 50% domestic, 40% overseas, and 25% China.

Google can help you verify that if you are skeptical.

If we use the 2.3 multiplier.
250 x 2.3 = 575
735 - 575 = 160

So far that's a profit of 75 million. Minus bonuses, taxes and shareholders and actor percentages of profits. Its probably around 40 million. That's most likely after royalties/import tariffs/taxes.

Your numbers don't add up to what Google says.

We will have to revisit these numbers once the theater run is over.

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Your multiplier is a very rough estimate and isn't accurate for any one film. It's more of a ballpark quick guess to apply to any film. Using the exact numbers and exact percentages gives an accurate amount.

Disney gets a minimum of 60% of the revenue from domestic ticket sales, and has negotiated to receive 65% for bigger films. Black Panther 2 is one of those films, as the sequel to one of the most successful films in history. Even if you use 60% rather than 65%, the profit is still massive, with more to come.

You have also again ignored the fact that nearly 100% of the film's promotional budget was free, paid for via corporate partnerships, which in the case of Black Panther 2 were greater than $100 million.

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Yes, its a rough estimate which is why they call it a rough estimate. Whats your source that Disney gets 60%? and gets 65% for BP2? My source on Google says that movies get 50%. The profit is not massive, your previous post said they have only profited a $100 million. What is the breakdown of that $100 million? Where does that money go? I need a financial breakdown of the profits.

The promotional budget was not free. The link you posted said it was a $100 million plus promotional partnership. Please show me breakdown of all the money spent on marketing.

You have ignored the fact that Google said the movie cost $250 million to make. Your made up fact that studios inflate the budget so people will see a movie has been debunked.

From a financial standpoint, with a reported $250 million budget, factoring in theatrical and marketing expenses, the film needs to gross around $888 million worldwide to breakeven. Of that $888 million, about $444 million will likely need to be earned domestically. With a $180 million opening, the film will only need a 2.46x multiplier to earn that total.
https://dailycampus.com/2022/11/15/box-office-breakdown-black-panther-wakanda-forever-is-king/

I did some more Googling and Dailycampus says BP2 needs $888 million to breakeven.

Using my exact numbers and my exact percentages gives an accurate amount. I think $888m is a bit high. According to the math. BP2 needs to make over $625m to break even.

We will have to revisit these numbers once the theater run is over.


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i am a bit surprised you got an idiot to stop replying to you. usually, stupid people don't know when to quit. even when confronted by simple facts. this has gotten predictably, progressively worse over the last few years. sad but encouraging that you've had even this small accomplishment. . .bravo to you, sir. thanks for making movie chat a better place.

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Thanks, I do what I can. It reminds me of a famous quote by Ty Webb. "A flute without holes, is not a flute. A donut without a hole, is a Danish."

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.

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$732,971,128 so far and still going strong, bubbabutthurt has egg on his face, its a smash hit this one is, in other news Black Adam failed to cross 400 million, ewwwwwww

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Top Gun 2 is still in theaters and is rolling to $1.5 billion!

The legs on Tom are super long. lol

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Thats brilliant also a smash hit just like Wakanda forever

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Its a moderate success and wont reach a billion.

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this hasnt aged very well. lol

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What, your OP? Tell me about it, failed prediction, this is a smash hit

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From a financial standpoint, with a reported $250 million budget, factoring in theatrical and marketing expenses, the film needs to gross around $888 million worldwide to breakeven. Of that $888 million, about $444 million will likely need to be earned domestically. With a $180 million opening, the film will only need a 2.46x multiplier to earn that total.
https://dailycampus.com/2022/11/15/box-office-breakdown-black-panther-wakanda-forever-is-king/

hasnt hit the break even yet and has no legs. no one likes Flopkanda

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Lol, sure it does

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According to the rock, black adam has made 50 to 70 million in profit, if thats case then wakanda forever has made a truck load, 888 million to break even haha tell me know how box office works without twlling me gow box office works.

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thats a good profit considering the cost of the movie, it will make more on the back end with rentals and purchases.

thats the breakeven according to that website. are you saying its false?

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I am going Friday morning to see it.

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Well I dont want 2 c it because the guy died.

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Blackest. Movie. Ever.

Listen, both of these movies are about this black utopia where there are no white people, no police and Africans can just do whatever they want. Which mostly means breeding or killing each other.

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