So Queen....
Did it break even yet?
shareNope.
shareHoly shit, not yet? It's supposed to be a huge success. How much money have they spent in budget and marketing?
They're quickly running out of golden franchises. Star Wars is done, Marvel Phase 4 doesn't look a huge money maker as the previous one, and they only have 2 popular Disney reboots remaining (Mulan and Little Blackmeid).
After that, time to go cheaper.
Nope.
^^
lol
Your "Break Even Point" Trolling tactic Bought 10 days of Trolling....
By Sunday It will have easily surpassed your Break Even Point and You'll Go into Hiding just Like you've done on the Aladdin and TS4....
lol Your just DELAYING The walk of shame...
You've found a way To Get a extra few weeks of Trolling in after A Disney Film Opens huge....
In the case of Aladdin, TS4 and Now TLK, all 3 films have opened huge, You immediately knew YOU LOST, You knew all 3 films were going to be monster hits, But you used your "Break Even Point" Tactic to DELAY and BUY some extra trolling time...
somehow you've found a way to TROLL despite Disney films opening HUGE, but as I said, Its a double edge sword because really, Your Just DELAYING The walk of shame, The walk still comes...
You still had to leave The Aladdin Board in defeat and shame
You still had to leave The TS4 in defeat in Shame...
You Will either Leave The LION KING board after this weekend, Or more likely You try to DELAY even more, and cling to the last and ONLY hope you got and PREY TLK doesnt top BATB domestically so you can claim some MINI Victory
although again, That comes with quite a risk, you tried that With Captain Marvel and GOT Burnt as badly as anyone can possibly be burnt
but the bottom line is, after this weekend your going to have to make a choice...Take The walk of shame now....Or MOve the goal posts AGAIN and Delay...
First You claimed TLK wouldnt open Huge.....You Lost there...
Then Moved The Goal Posts to "so what it opened huge, Its still got a 820 M Break even point, so I can troll until It hits that"
Now It Will be "Ok so it hit the break even point, but The is TLK were talking about, the question is now can It be The biggest live action film of all time and beat BATB like it should"
my advice is take the walk of shame now...The Math is there for TLK to due BATB numbers...knowing your luck , It will top it and you'll have another CM disaster on your hands
Actually for the Lion King to break even, it has to make 1.2 billion worldwide. Everyone is forgetting about all the different types of animal licenses that Disney had to acquire to make this movie. Those ain't cheap.
share1.Do u you dispute that this has an 820 million break even point?
2. If The Lion King falls short of BATB domestically...is that not a relative disappointment for Disney considering the IP and the fact that they spent 100 MILLION MORE on it's production budget?
That's not "buying time". Those are legitimate discussion points for ANYONE interested in box office.
You forgot to say "red alert, red alert". LOL
shareOh...and bill? It looks like BATB's domestic total is getting further out of reach. Deadline is reporting a 60% drop this weekend with only 77 million. The legs on this are not looking strong.
shareOh...and bill? It looks like BATB's domestic total is getting further out of reach. Deadline is reporting a 60% drop this weekend with only 77 million. The legs on this are not looking strong.
^^^
Queen You tried the same thing with Endgame...
Once it opened huge, you spent the next month constantly Saying "Oh Man too bad about the 2nd, 3rd and 4th Weekend drop, it was going to need great legs to have any chance of beating Avatar"
go back and look at your history on EG....there is literally DOZENS of messages like this, where you basically TROLLED for nothing...
You specifically replied to troll and say "Oh man with drops like this, EG has no chance at Avatar"....and In the end, EG topped Avatar and you trolled for nothing...
The same With CM....You spent over a month, claiming "CM has no chance at topping WW domestically"....
You completely lack all abilty to forecast where a film is going to end up...
I get that right now, you want to Troll about TLKs drop....
But had you taken the time to do even 2 minutes worth of research, you would have seen, Out of near Dozen or so films that have Opened between 75 to 77 Million.....ONLY 1 film has gone on to make Less than an additional 135 Million dollars domestically and thats Halloween(2018)
basically as I said, THE MATH clearly points to TLK doing BATB numbers domestically
Basically You've got to look at TLKs 2nd weekend of 76 Million and try to forecast How Much more domestically It can Make?
I know you are literally all time awful at forecasting, But the best way to do it....
Is look at films that had an Opening Weekend between 75 to 77 M and see where Their final domestic total ended up.
there are 11 films that had Opening Weekend between 75 to 77 Million dollars.....9 out of the 10 Made at least 216 Million total domestically....
So as I said, and as you clearly did NO Research.....The Math is there for TLK to do BATB numbers, TLK could literally come in on the absolute low End and Just make another 135 M and still Be close
you need to think about these things before getting excited to Troll
I know you saw TLKs drop and got really excited, But as of right now, The Math is still there for TLK to do BATB numbers domestically
It doesnt Mean its guaranteed, But as of right now, Not only Is it possible but Its LIKELY TLK Will End up extremely close to BATB domestically whether that be slightly over or slightly under
These are things you need to think about....
basically Its perfectly fine if you want to troll about TLK having a 60% drop(although I wouldnt, because Thats actually normal for blockbusters, Most blockbuster have 55 to 60% drops)....but hey if you want to troll about it, I can at least somewhat Understand that....
where You cant troll(and this will really take the fun out of it for you) is to Troll and Claim "Oh no with drops like this TLKs going to fall short of BATB "
You didnt do the research, and you dont realize the MATH suggests otherwise...NOTHING about TLKs drops suggests or hints that its going to fall short....
you made the same mistakes with BOTH CM and Endgame, especially with EG...
EG every weekend had Average and Then towards the end above average holds...
You were certain and trolled for a month claiming "Oh Man Another Huge drop, No way EG can top Avatar now, It Needed Legs to have any chance"
and you were wrong...You didnt do the math...
likewise, If you were ONLY trolling on EG's Holds and NOT directly claiming that The HOLDS were going to result in it missing Avatar, I guess your trolling might at least understandable, but you literally INCORRECTLY Trolled for over a month Claiming "On No With drops like this, EG has no chance at Avatars record"
So All I'm saying is.....
I get that you are excited by TLKs drop, I get that You rushed over to troll after reading about it....
but If your going to Troll...at least do it CORRECTLY....
try to learn from over a month of now POINTLESS and INCORRECTLY trolling on Endgame...
Its about the MATH....TLK had a 60% drop(thats fair game to troll on)....but unfortunately the part you really WANT to troll on is NOT....Had you done any research, You would have seen, Even With a 60% drop, TLK is still on pace to do BATB numbers...
at least as of right now, You cant Troll about what you really want to troll about...
Well you can, But then you could have another EG and CM situation on your hands where you INCORRECTLY troll for months claiming "Oh No with drops like this beating Avatar is dead and passing WW domestically is dead" ONLY to have the films do exactly that...
Next weekend When TLKs numbers come in....dont get so excited to troll that you forget to do research....
go look at similar movies, and see If the MATH supports your trolling....
Now bill...I've got to tip my hat to you. You always saw this coming in lower than BATB domestically. 475 million, right? Granted, you never explained WHY you saw it coming in lower even though I kept asking for you to explain yourself.
I have to admit that this is one of your most impressive predictions. You were able to nail it even in the face of The Lion King being a MUCH bigger IP than Beauty and the Beast AND Disney expecting a bigger gross shown by their willingness to spend a whopping 100 million dollars MORE on the production budget.
You instinctively sensed an underperformance when others were predicting this to be the 2nd biggest film of the year after Endgame.
What was your secret in predicting this underperformance, bill?
You say the Lion King is a bigger IP than BATB but I don't agree. Perhaps in its day but not now. Who does BATB cater to? Families, but individually it appeals to little girls. Its also a movie adult women can reminisce about their childhood along with their daughters. The Lion King doesn't quite offer that much. It has the family angle, but its not exactly giving boys or girls what they specifically want to see. And it also doesn't quite give adults a piece of their childhoods the way BATB does for women.
shareInteresting perspective and speculation but the box office numbers.for those 90's animated films say otherwise...and it ain't even close. Yes that was "back in the day" but what evidence is there that the potential market has so drastically changed? Disney must have thought TLK had the broader, deeper appeal as they were willing to spend 100 million more on its production budget than BATB's 260 million compared to 160 million.
shareThe market has changed in the sense these are remakes that have nostalgic value that the originals did not have. 90s TLK was an epic event that 90s BATB or even Aladdin could not compete with. Yet now they are all within close range of each other, with BATB at the top. I'd say thats evidence that BATB's nostalgic appeal is higher. Though I guess we'll see because TLK is still climbing. And TLK will definitely surpass Aladdin.
Examining budgets in that way is incorrect. The execs aren't sitting around saying "well if we spend double for this project, we'll get more than the last one." It doesn't work that way. They calculate a balance between profit and making something as good as they can make it. $260 million is where they landed.
Lets say one project cost $160 million and garnered $200 million net profit. Lets say another project cost $260 million and only garnered $100 million net profit. Now lets say they had advanced knowledge of what the return would be for the second project. Would they still do it? Oh hell yes. Net profit is net profit. Net profit is always worth it when the return is in the millions.
Fair point.
shareHow about now?
shareIs it over 820 million now?
If so, then it has now broken even. Unfortunately, it's falling fast domestically so everyone seems to be revising down their original predictions.
I finally saw it last night and thought it was quite a powerful experience. I highly recommend the film.