Over/under 200m OW domestic
Yes - 215m
share215 million?
Wow.
MovieChat Forums > The Lion King (2019) Discussion > Over/under 200m OW domestic
@darkpast
I admire you putting it out there and that's a bold prediction. The highest I've seen is boxoffice.com at 201 million and they overproject on Disney films routinely.
I'm looking at a lot of things here and am not ready to make a SPECIFIC prediction...yet.
Have you noticed there have been no more "record-breaking presales" reports since the initial one when they first went on sale?
Hmmmm...i think I recall this happening fairly recently with Toy Story 4. I even started a thread on that board a week before it came out questioning that VERY phenomenon that seems to be happening here. I even gave an, admittedly, anecdotal report of theaters in my area showing very little presold seats. And whaddya know...the same thing is happening again. I'm hardly seeing any sold out showings on preview night or on Friday. Most are less than 1/3 full and many are COMPLETELY EMPTY. That's not the stuff 200+ million openings are made of.
And yet...Toy Story 4 was getting hyped up, in the days leading up to its opening, everyone was predicting at least 150 million on the low end and over 200 million on the high end.
Actual opening?
121 million.
Now...does this mean I think it's going to open as low as Toy Story 4? No. I think it will open higher, but not astronomically higher. Disney is projecting a 150 million OW. Let's not forget they projected a 140 million opening for Toy Story 4 and it fell short of that by 19 million.
share 121 million.
^^^^
somehow you did it again.....
how on earth can anyone be this awful at box office that they MISS by 80 MILLION + on a near 100% basis on a films opening weekend....
This is I believe The 14th time you've missed by 60 to 80 Million dollars on a films OW since November of 2017...
Queen, Thats beyond comprehension ...Its almost a Logic impossibility to MISS by That MUCH, That OFTEN....
a comparison would be, if you were playing basketball and you shot 20 free throws and not only did you miss 14 of them, But You AIR BALLED all 14 and MISSED by 5 of 6 feet on each shot.....The only possible conclusion would be, YOU ARE AWFUL at BASKETBALL
likewise, YOU ARE AWFUL at BOX OFFICE....
whats so astonishing is, Your 121 Million dollar awful prediction had absolutely no basis or facts behind it, There wasnt a single thing you could point to to accurately say that was a reasonable or good prediction....It was nothing more than a SHOT in The dark, and YOU HOPING against all facts TLK would open drastically less than All tracking and Presales suggested...
YOU are now in the position where ALL HOPE IS GONE...
You have maybe a week of trolling before TLK easily passes your 820 Million Break Even Point and You are forced to take the walk of shame and start hiding and avoiding this board like your now forced to do with Aladdin and TS4...
I'm sure because your Hatred for Disney controls you, You'll be forced to start Spite trolling and Get Pity...
at this point the only possible thing you could troll on is to take some minor/tiny victory in The fact that TLK may not hit 200 Million ....
lol I remember when Endgame came out, You completely embarrassed yourself by FAKE trolling and claiming it was some huge deal that EG ONLY made 350 Million Instead of The 358 Million DL predicted....
hilariously though EGs actuals came in at 357M...
But the point is, I have no doubt The pain,anger and Disappointment you feel from A Disney film opening this huge will cause you to Get Petty and claim "too bad it only hit 192 M and couldnt hit the 200 M+ projections"
but you know what....Maybe this time you'll wait until monday to do it, wait for the actuals to come in so you dont have another FAIL like EG....
anyways...I must say....
I smiled when I saw TLKs Numbers....the second I saw them I knew you were going through HELL and IT RUINED your weekend....and that just makes me happy....
It cant be easily watchig Disney Continue to have the greatest year in Hollywood history and theres nothing you can do about it...
at this point I truly think just going silence would be the best possible option for you...Why FIGHT?
You fought for 7 months now, You've tried to troll on Every Disney release and where has it gotten you...
Captain Marvel-1.125 B+("This Aint No Wonder Woman"...lol will you ever live that epic fail down)
Endgame-2.788 B+(Yes you now live in a reality where Disney is going to have the highest grossing film ever made)
Aladdin-1 Billion +-(you got 2 weeks of trolling before you had to start hiding and avoiding the board)
Toy Story 4-heading toward the 900 M you laughed at-(again a few week of trolling before TS4 easily surpassed your break even point and you've now pretty much left the board)
and Now The Lion King-(easily surpassed your Scale you created that it "Has to be The biggest Live Action remake"-Will easily pass your break even point by next weekend-Will easily Hit 1 Billion +)
You have fought and trolled for 7 month in 2019....and the ONLY thing you have to show for it is Shame,embarrassment and failure where you've had to watch has Disney has had the greatest year in Hollywood history....
Why FIGHT anymore?
seriously why put yourself through this....
at this point, your best trolling tactic would be just to go silence and give up on 2019 and hope 2020 you might have a few couple Disney films that flop or underperform...
You are as dumb as a box of rocks...I specifically say it will open HIGHER THAN TS4!
Right there...plain as day
Both you and queen are the biggest retards to ever disgrace the internet, if you haven't been on YouTube lately than I should tell you that there are several movie critics on YouTube that are literally just tearing this movie apart, and just about everyone commenting on the videos agree, not to mention a majority of the posters on this message board seem to have no interest in seeing this movie or any other Disney live-action remake that Disney shits out.
So whatever box office web site you're getting you information from doesn't have their data matching up with all the negative backlash these Disney remakes are getting...it could be that your fucked up obsession and hatred towards queen is doing to you what queen's obsession and hatred towards Disney did to him...it has blinded you and made it near imposable to admit that the one thing you love the most is likely on its way down the shitter, with The Lion King getting a metascore of only 55, a 5.3 rating on IMDb, and 55% on Rotten Tomatoes I'd say that this movie is certainly under preforming, lol!
Both you and queen are the biggest retards to ever disgrace the internet
^^
says the guy who thinks we are important enough to respond to instead of You Know...Umm blocking us and never having to see "The Biggest Retards on the internet" again
heres an idea, Block US and PROVE IT...show you really think we are UNIMPORTANT and were so retarded we arent worth talking to..Block US
if you haven't been on YouTube lately than I should tell you that there are several movie critics on YouTube that are literally just tearing this movie apart,
^^^
Thanks Captain Obvious but We dont need Youtube to tell us that
Reviews Hit RT a while ago...Everyone knew the film was getting below average reviews and we knew it more than A WEEK AGO and again Youtube was not needed
So whatever box office web site you're getting you information from doesn't have their data matching up with all the negative backlash these Disney remakes are getting
^^^
Please do not talk box office if you dont have even the very basic understanding of it...
the sites I were referring to are ....Boxoffice.com, MOJO, Deadline, Variety, and literally a half dozen more that REPORT Box office tracking and then Give Predictions during the final week
every single one of these sites Had The Lion King Opening at a minimum of 150 M and Tracking between 170 to 200 M....Just as I said
and whats amazing especially for someone who knows nothing about box office like you....everyone of those sites made those predictions WITH the Knowledge of The Bad reviews...
these are called pre-release stats , TLK was Tracking at the numbers I said IN-SPITE of The Bad reviews, In fact some of these sites ADJUSTED thier predictions based on the bad reviews...
this is not an exaggeration, but every single thing you have said so far has ONLY made you look stupid....
1st, you try to insult US by actually calling us the biggest retards on the internet but fail to realize YOU ARE RESPONDING TO US....You by your own admission, felt the need to talk to 2 people you labeled The Biggest retards on the internet...I'm sorry but that cant ONLY BE damaging to you.....The question has to be asked why on earth would you waste 1 second of time on 1 person let alone 2 people that you actually thought were that dumb, I certainly wouldnt....
2nd you try to dont box office and Dispute my claims, but fail to realize the SITES you quoted deal with reviews and NOT BOX OFFICE.....You literally missed the target completely here
You werent even it the same ballpark....
The Evidence and Data I was referring is Undisputed data from a Half dozen Box office sites reporting pre release Tracking and predictions...
Instead you throw out Reviews that came out over a week ago, and failed to realize ALL The sites I quoted TOOK The reviews into account, Adjusted thier Projections and those were the 170 to 200 M Predictions I was referring too....
So whatever box office web site you're getting you information from doesn't have their data matching up with all the negative backlash these Disney remakes are getting...it could be that your fucked up obsession and hatred towards queen is doing to you what queen's obsession and hatred towards Disney did to him...it has blinded you and made it near imposable to admit that the one thing you love the most is likely on its way down the shitter, with The Lion King getting a metascore of only 55, a 5.3 rating on IMDb, and 55% on Rotten Tomatoes I'd say that this movie is certainly under preforming, lol!
^^^
now to the ONLY remotely true thing you said....
The stats you quoted here are true....as I've said we've all known for more than week now what the TLK reviews were and you accurately quoted them....
Unfortunately thats where your truth ends and really where your grasp of reality ends because
everything else you that came out of your month was PURE DELUSIONAL garage...
A film doesnt "Under Perform" based on reviews....
"Under Perform" is used to describe Box office....
for a example, Transformer 1,2 and 3 all got Awful reviews and made A ton of money and theres not a box office site or analyst in the world that has every claimed they Under Performed
With TLK opening between 192 to 200 M+.....I'm sorry but that can and WILL ONLY be described as A HOME RUN....I challenge you to find 1(Literally 1) box office site or analyst that says TLK Under Performed....
you are more than within your right to feel Disappointed by The Quality of TLK....Based on Its reviews, The consensus clearly is, Its Just average
You are more than with your right to note The average reviews or disappointing reviews,But you are confusing Quality and Reviews With Box office
at this point, TLK is a HOME RUN
what you should have done is looked at past examples....that is usually how box office works
That is why TLKs Tracking and Predictions stayed extremely HIGH despite the average reviews hitting the last week....
all the major Box office sites looked to just 2 Months ago when Aladdin hit to nearly the same Average reviews....These sites, saw The Reviews had NO IMPACT on the box office of the film....The film still opened HUGE, directly where all the pre-release tracking suggested and has went on to have Incredible legs with a Great WOM now heading for 1 BILLION+
There was No reason based on TLKs reviews to expect TLKs box office to be impacted...Aladdin was a perfect example of this, and thats why every major sites STILL Predicted TLK to Open huge despite the reviews
again, This is basic box office stuff that not only is it clear you dont know, But you are actually getting it Completely Backwards...
PLEASE BLOCK ME....
I truly have no interests in ever talking to someone like you again....
You dont even know how to use "Under Perform" in The right context....
This is the only imdb news item: https://www.imdb.com/news/ni62552358
The Lion King remake, which comes from Iron Man director Jon Favreau, is expected to pull in between $150 and $180 million at the box office this weekend, which, even on the low side, will make it another huge success for the studio. Estimates for this one have been all over the place, as it's been an unpredictable summer so far.
BO Mojo: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4529
The film will launch in a record 4,725 domestic locations this weekend and industry expectations have it pegged for a debut around $175-180 million ...
As for this weekend, we're expecting anything from $175-210 million, sticking with a forecast right around $190 million ...
[more than Captain Marvel, will it be #2 2019?]
"The Lion King delivered $23 million from Thursday night previews"
shareIts either going to dead on where the tracking suggests....
Or Its gonna get crazy....
Prediction....
$170 to 180 M
I wouldnt rule 200 M+ out....but I think Its unlikely...Had the reviews been there I would have thought 200 M+ was do able...
I did read a report saying That the Tracking awareness for TLK is basically off the charts...Its awareness is basically on "Endgame's Level"....but whats makes TLKs awareness so insane...Is the Length at which the Awareness has Been So High...
EG's awareness eventually Built toward never before seen height before its release....
Apparently TLK's Awareness has been off the charts for basically more than a year....
again theres no really tell what that means, as no movie has had that kind of awareness Levels before....but its interesting
LOL...I see you lowered your prediction from 180 million OW to a range of 170-180 million now.
You still haven't explained why this "Monster hit" won't even match Beauty and the Beast's domestic total(according to YOU). Why is it so difficult to explain your prediction? The Lion King has ALWAYS been a MUCH BIGGER property than BATB and yet you have it falling short of it.
Is it the poor reviews? Remake fatigue? What?
And bill...you assumed this had a production cost of 160-200 million.
WRONG AGAIN.
Try 260+ million before marketing.
WRONG AGAIN.
^^^
No Just wrong
There is no wrong AGAIN
saying "Wrong again" suggests The person Is wrong a lot, which I'm not but you are
It was just recently revealed in the last week what TLKs budget was....I can provide the 2 sources that said 160 and 175 M....But I fully acknowledge The NEWEST budget reveal of 260 M is The definitive one
I find it extremely ODD that YOU are claiming I was wrong, When at the time I quoted the 160 and 175 M budget, I was right, Or at least that was the ONLY reported Budgets
I mean You quickly Made a troll thread when you read about the 260 M budget a week ago....lets be honest, with the depths of your hatred for Disney, If you would have known about the 260 M Budget before last week, you would have been trolling on it for MONTHS
lol basically the best you can do is say I was Wrong for Accurately quoting The Budget before It WAS finally REVEALED
Epic fail!
LOL, I see you lowered your prediction from 180 million OW to a range of 170-180 million now.
^^^
nope, I dont remember ever giving a prediction.
I remember quoting tracking thats between 170 to 200 M+ but thats about it
You still haven't explained why this "Monster hit" won't even match Beauty and the Beast's domestic total(according to YOU). Why is it so difficult to explain your prediction? The Lion King has ALWAYS been a MUCH BIGGER property than BATB and yet you have it falling short of it.
^^^
and I dont need to because TLK easily Topped The BATB this weekend....and opened as WHAT DO YOU KNOW....The biggest live action remake of all time
but even If it hadnt, The Question I asked you was simply
In what world is 475 M+ domestically and 1.3 B+ not a monster hit
Your desperation and Hatred for Disney made it incapable for you to answer this simply question honestly..
Instead You created A NEW Scale, where TLK had to be The biggest live action remake of all time or its not a monster hit
but like usual you failed to even remotely think about your NEW Scale and how it would Apply to films you like and defend...
I of course did, I applied your new scale to films like Shazam, and your New Scale you set for TLK now DOOMS Shazam as a failure....
But then theres The Grinch.....Which Identically fits your Scale you created for TLK....
according to you, TLK has to be the biggest live action remake because .....well for no other reason than.... It was predicted to be the biggest live action remake....
So I then Apply the same scale and reasoning to The Grinch....A film You, yourself Predicted to be, WHAT DO YOU KNOW....The biggest animated film of All time and Predicted to top 500 M + domestically ad 1.2 B+ WW
somehow The Grinch, came up over 700 Million dollars short....failed to meet your Scale by over a half billion dollars...Yet you somehow claim its a Huge hit and defend it....
bottom line......
Somehow in your desperation you Created A Scale for TLK that You Intentionally set as HIGH As Possible.....
and Hilariously so far Its ONLY resulted in DOOMING films you like and defend and TLK easily achieving The Heights you set....
you cant fail much more than this....
its like a double or triple tap.....You not just shooting yourself in the foot, but also in the Knee and Then The balls....
Your failing 2 or 3 times when you could have just failed once