Prediction


Brendan Dassey never goes back to trial. The prosecutors offer him a deal (like they did the first time around and that his mother stupidly told him not to take) to come clean, admit his own guilt, tell the whole story about what actually happened, and what exactly he saw his uncle do. And they sentence him to time already served. Brendan Dassey then walks away a free man. And his uncle stays in prison where he belongs.

Just my thoughts.

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Yes, just my opinion, it would be good if the truth came out, but remember this is the AVERY family. Too bad BD isn't smart enough to tell the Avery clan and lawyers where to go and take a plea deal to be free, possibly on an Alford plea.

The State has every reason to offer a plea deal. It won't be what one defense attorney suggests (not to testify for SA in any future trial...that would not be enforceable). The deal will be time served and/or pleading guilty to lesser charges. BD will reject it because he's getting bad advice. Sad because he could get it off his conscience. I don't think he's a murderer. He never would have been in trouble without his evil uncle. BD is a pawn between 2 cynical forces.

I predict BD will go free in 2 or 3 years after a trial finds him "not guilty"... quite different from "innocent".

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Hi Bernie.
You reckon Duffin will be upheld?
Hey, look at that! She's not crazy, she's being chased by a cheetah!

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Hi Corpus, I have no idea, not American, not a lawyer, just spouting off here without a clue and who knows what will ever happen in the U. S. of A. I do think BD has served enough time in prison, but won't be getting out soon unless a deal is in place. His family and lawyers want to WIN, the State wants to WIN. BD and the victim's family lose. Do you think the AG would offer an Alford plea (no admittance of guilt)? (Not likely)
I suspect BD has been told it's a sure thing you're getting out so hang in there. Bad advice, same as in 2007. Mind you a 16-year-old with limited capacity should never have been questioned without a parent or lawyer present and should never have been given a life sentence. If a retrial it should be a "not guilty" verdict, but who knows with a jury?
I doubt if the State wants to retry BD, but both sides are stubborn so the legal wrangles will go on for years, don't you think?
Nov. 24, 2019: imdb, reddit, SAIG, ticktockmanitowoc, MaM, SuperMaM posters are arguing with/insulting each other over final summations in the BD trial. MaM 6 has been a big hit for Netflix and cameras are rolling for MaM 7. On ticktock posters are debating the colour of the Rav 4 and calling "guilters" names. On SAIG, posters are calling "truthers" names. Happy Thanksgiving to American family and friends. Sorry, turkey.
"Back to the Future 2": Cubs win the World Series and Biff Tainen is President.

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Thanks for your reply and my apologies, I had assumed you were American for some reason.

Jana claims she never gave permission to the cops, yet she's shown present with Dassey directly after the interrogations after he tells her that "they got into my head".

I'm wondering if Duffin will be overruled and it's partially due to your comments on guardians actually.
Duffin acknowledges that neither WI or Federal law requires guardians present for minors. (unfortunately, some minors get physically and/or sexually abused by their parents or guardian, for example and may need to give a statement to the cops highlighting the abuse.)
However in his conclusions he then states (kinda arbitrarily actually imo) that Dassey shoulda had a "responsible adult" present anyway.
He's also imo rather inconsistent wrt Dassey's alleged intellectual deficits. (This is a guy who wanted to go back to science class for example.)
I also personally think Duffin is on dodgy ground with his false promises claims.
That said I've no legal qualifications at all. But from campaigning in the Meredith Kercher case for example, I got to read a lot of motivational/sentencing reports, appeals etc and you kinda get a feel for what would be considered sound and unsound reasoning. I have cautious optimism he'll be overturned.

As for Dassey's sentence, I dunno. It doesn't sit right with me on one level, as like yourself I'm not American either and such sentences simply aren't given out in my country especially for minors, so it's kinda hard to wrap my head around, even more so when I consider the circumstances of his crime. I mean let's face it he essentially blundered into things.
That said, I suspect that some sentences by US courts- right or wrong- reflect the nature of the crime and in terms of nature, this was about as depraved and brutal as it gets.
So I dunno how I feel about it tbh. Bottom line if he does serve its entirety, he could still live possibly another 30 years as a free man.
Yet at the same time I hear you as well. As Kettle said on another thread, Dassey needs a lawyer who'll do right by him in terms of a reduction, rather than try get him off at any costs. I'd personally have no problem with a reduced sentence, but I'm not affected by the murder anyway so it's easy for me to say.

I very much doubt the state wish to retry him either but I think they'll attempt it and maybe that's when the Alford option may come into play, they could get him to plead guilty, confess and be sentenced to time served.

The thing is, I honestly don't think Dassey was coerced and I think if it's upheld it could lead to dodgy consequences legally for the actual system and this is what makes me wonder if Duffin is gonna pass the pepsi challenge or not.

I dunno if they'd find him not guilty in a retrial as ultimately he still has no alibi, the bleach stains, the fact that both were cleaning the garage and attending the bonfire, his prison confession. That might be just sufficient to convict.

But I gotta say, while having no legal expertise but as someone who's read a lot of primary sources, I'm not sure if Duffin will actually be upheld.

Thanks again for your thoughts.



Hey, look at that! She's not crazy, she's being chased by a cheetah!

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Thanks Corpus for your thoughtful reply. If there were a retrial for BD, I should have said a hung jury/mistrial is more likely than a not guilty verdict. There's not enough evidence for a guilty, but someone on the jury will be convinced of guilt i.e. where to find an unbiased juror?

From what little I know about American law an Alford Plea does not require any admission of guilt. The H. family would be consulted and their opinions would be taken into account. The State would be smart to offer a deal. BD would be smart (big IF) to accept.

I do have some experience working in the legal system long ago. BD's age is a mitigating factor. Sixteen would be considered a minor in most countries. I once wrote a pre-sentence report on a 16-year who had lied about his age to the police (said 17 foolishly). Kid got probation, didn't go to jail. The fact that he was Sicilian did not factor into my recommendation. The Godfather came out that year!

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You could well be right on a hung jury/mistrial and I wouldn't rule out an acquittal either as you never really know how these things will go and keeping your comments re unbiased jurors very much in mind, as personally Duffin comes across as biased to me and if I thought he was above board, I'd suck it in and say it and concede that Dassey was probably gonna walk. But he just seems kinda all over the place and basically trying to actually find any vulnerabilities in the case against Dassey right from the get go, that's about the best way I can put it.

Are you Italian/Sicilian by any chance? I find your legal system very interesting if you are and in principal at least, assuming it's applied correctly I think many nations could learn a lot from it, although I have my reservations about it too but only due to what I'd regard as a certain paradigm in Italy which can leave institutions such as the judiciary vulnerable at times to what I would call vested interests, mainly due to its three tiered set up. But in many respects its quite laudable re fairness and thoroughness.

Yeah my apologies and thanks for your correction re Alford- as I understand it you don't plead guilt (I had gotten mixed up on that part, and apologies again) but you acknowledge that the state had sufficient evidence to convict you, or at least that's what I think it is, I haven't checked it in a while. But in essence that's kinda win-win innit? You get to say "hey I didn't do it!" and the state get to say "Maybe not but you know we weren't to blame as there was sufficient evidence to show that you DID do it" and then you can go "hey maybe but I still didn't do it!"
Under Alford though you're still legally regarded as guilty by the state and law, as that's currently the status of the WM3 who are out but still regarded as having done it.
So Dasssey gets to go home and the state don't have to pay a dime in compo. Everyone wins...except Teresa and her family. Which is why while Dassey's sentence doesn't sit right with me, neither does the thought of him getting outa jail just like that either. But his age is a factor too. Things like this one are a toughie for me and I've no easy answers I'm afraid.

If you are Italian and completely OT, I'd love to get your thoughts on either the Monster of Florence case or indeed the Meredith Kercher case some time in the future if you're interested or familiar with either case and ever have the time. (I'd be particularly interested in your thoughts on Giulia Bongiorno also assuming you've heard of her). No worries if you're busy and if you're not Italian, then I'll... well I'll stfu.

I enjoy reading your posts btw. You're far more civil than me when debating with hard core truthers.
Hey, look at that! She's not crazy, she's being chased by a cheetah!

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Hey you can be civil when you want to be! I'm Canadian, the joke is we are always saying "sorry". I have noticed a lot of Canadians are Avery/Dassey supporters. Our system is quite different from U.S. I don't know anything about the Italian system, but from what I've read it's not good. Cheers.

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blimey corpus you seem to have become extremely civil since ive been gone whats happened?

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Hey even I can take a hint...eventually.

Btw does anyone know what to make about Dassey confessing that he and Avery had planned the murder a few days in advance? The confession was four hours after all and I must have missed this bit. I'm gonna have to go over it again (which I don't relish doing) but if this is true, then I don't care if he's 16 or how shy he is, let him rot for 41 years and consider himself lucky he has a shot of parole.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/making-a-murderer-brendan-dassey-856343

Can anyone give any clarification on this?

Hey, look at that! She's not crazy, she's being chased by a cheetah!

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BD will reject it because he's getting bad advice.


It's pretty obvious that he keeps surrounding himself with people who gives him horrible advice. Just take the fact that he supposedly gave away everything in prison because he was confident that he was getting out before Thanksgiving - either his fancy schmancy new lawyers didn't tell him not to count his chickens or he just won't listen to anyone. Maybe a bit of both.

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