Guaranteed Oscar for Oldman?

As I've said in the past, my only concern with this is the amount of makeup and prosthetics that is going to be required to make Oldman look like Churchill. If he ends up looking like a rubbery caricature of Churchill, that could hurt his chances. I'm getting bad flashbacks of Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar and Anthony Hopkins in Hitchcock. And to use an even more recent example, Woody Harrleson looks hilariously awful as Lyndon B. Johnson in the upcoming LBJ. A good performance can only go so far in covering up a *beep* makeup job.

On-paper, this sounds like it could be the one. A WW2 film about a beloved historical figure overcoming seemingly insurmountable odds and rallying his people to stand up against Nazi tyranny? A prestigious filmmaking crew? A role requiring a physical transformation? A celebrated actor long overdue for recognition on the big stage?

Lots of boxes being checked off.

Trying to not get my hopes up, though. No matter how many actors come out and gush about how much Oldman has an inspiration for them, the Academy doesn't seem to recognize him as one of the finest actors working today. He should have a minimum of three nominations under his belt. The fact that he only has one is egregious.

A little premature methinks. Yes Oldman is an excellent actor and based on the photos he looks to be inhabiting Churchill amazingly, but a great performance can get lost in an average film. All the cogs need to fall in line for it to all work. While Joe Wright has made some sumptuous looking films, the majority of them are not what you would call masterpieces, well made yes, but Wright has failed to hit one out of the ball park so to speak so far.

One disadvantage is that this is a political film about a conservative figure. Previous history shows that that often does not translate to an Oscar (Hopkins as Nixon, DiCaprio as J. Edgar Hoover). The real difficulty with this film is that, if Churchill is portrayed accurately, conservatives will not like this film. Whereas, if Churchill is portrayed too positively the film will appear as sentimental fluff.

I like Oldman, but I think that winning an Oscar isn't everything. He has been snubbed, but he also has been passed up because of his film choices. He has been seen as a character actor in mainstream movies (JFK, The Fifth Element) rather than a leading performance actor like Day Lewis.

Also, with Streep winning Best Actress for 'The Iron Lady', the reality is that a lot of so-so films (The Blind Side) have produced Best Actress winners. The Best Actor winner usually goes to the lead performance in a film that is critically-acclaimed and a leading contender for Best Picture.