MovieChat Forums > Avengers: Endgame (2019) Discussion > maybe it wont beat Avatar?

maybe it wont beat Avatar?


its pretty much 2.5b ok so looks like it will... but...from now theres going to be a huge summer movie out each weekend (JWick3, Aladdin, Godzilla2, Xmen, MiB4) and ppl wont be so keen to see 3hr EG again over any of those.. so can it make another 300m ww ? (300m being roughly the ww gross of a moderately successful movie like Passengers, Oblivion, Elysium, Star Trek Beyond etc )

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There's definitely a lot more doubt and pessimism about that happening than there was even a week ago.

It REALLY needs to stabilize.

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Did you see the huge drops on Sunday?

$90m

$45m

$19m


Avatar had amazing holds in the first month. Endgame could be out of theaters by the end of this month if the numbers continue to drop.

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[deleted]

Yeah, but people still go to the movies on holidays. Theaters are usually packed on Christmas too.

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Lol you troll with Queenie too? I caught her posting propaganda this weekend.

You really have no life or brain capacity, do you? You just come here to spew ignorance instead of connecting with other humans like a normal person.

Youre a fucking joke, dude. You spend your time doing this meaningless bullshit.

Look in the mirror some time and assess yourself, seriously. You can be better than this.

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How is posting facts trolling? Those numbers are from boxofficemojo.

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I feel it's still very possible, but it's probably more of a long game than a short one.

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Should do, but it will be close.

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The international drop was even worse than the domestic one.

67% on a third weekend!

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0 Chance it won't beat Avatar. We are on week 3!

It will dip again next weekend and then stabilize for a bit, before it has a nice bump from Spider-Man.

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It's not going to stop plunging until the fifth weekend? These haven't been "dips"...these have been cliff-jumps.

...and then Spiderman is going to save it in July?

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Maybe, but keep in mind there is a fairly large contingent of viewers, like myself, who rarely see blockbusters, but will certainly see Endgame a second time. Of the films you listed, I'll see Godzilla, but there is 0% likelihood of me seeing any of the rest. This is why the MCU films outperform other films-- they have all the fans of blockbusters/action films coming in droves, but they also attract those who seldom watch action films, and instead seek out thoughtful, plot-driven films with excellent dialogue.

Will there be enough cinema buffs returning for a second viewing to drive Endgame past Avatar? Who's to say? The prevailing wisdom to this point has been that Endgame won't beat Avatar, but then, that same prevailing wisdom had Endgame maxing out at $2.4 billion, with $2.5 billion being the absolute ceiling. Here we are, only 17 days into its run, and it's already earned the supposedly absolute maximum amount it could earn, so anything is still possible.

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"[–] FilmBuff (1291) 15 minutes ago
Of the films you listed, I'll see Godzilla, but there is 0% likelihood of me seeing any of the rest."

I'm hearing this a LOT. Godzilla looks to really break out. Of course, boxoffice.com is lowballing it like they do with most WB and Universal films which actually is doing them a favor as their actual numbers are bound to look like a huge overperformance.

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[–] QueenFanUSA (1757) 15 minutes ago
"[–] FilmBuff (1291) 15 minutes ago
Of the films you listed, I'll see Godzilla, but there is 0% likelihood of me seeing any of the rest."

I'm hearing this a LOT. Godzilla looks to really break out. Of course, boxoffice.com is lowballing it like they do with most WB and Universal films which actually is doing them a favor as their actual numbers are bound to look like a huge overperformance.
This is utter, unadulterated, crap and one of the BIGGEST and NASTIEST lies that you have ever told to try and make a case for your spin doctoring and PUFFERY.

Boxoffice Mojo is owned by IMDB.
IMDb is owned by Amazon

Amazon, IMDb and Boxoffice Mojo have no, nada, zilch vested interest in lowballing, highballing, downplaying, underplaying, hyping or uber-hyping one studio over or under another studio. Are you freaking serious???!!!

You are lying.
You are lying.

Show us the proof of Box office Mojo lowballing WB and Universal films and what the value proposition is for Box Office Mojo to even do such a thing!

It's bull. You're making crap up to make yourself look or sound good and all you are doing is proving that you are one of the most dishonest posters on this board. I mean really, really dishonest. This is low, despicable and deceiving for even you. This is just wrong. This isn't even stated as an opinion you're stating this as a fact. You're saying that Box office Mojo is being dishonest and engaging in rigging the box office comparative performance, misreporting the box office performance and attempting to deceive the public as well as paid members for IMDb services.

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IMDbPro offers members the following: detailed contact and representation information; IMDb profile management tools; exclusive STARmeter rankings that are determined by user searches on IMDb; a casting service to post breakdowns and apply to roles, a mobile optimized website and more. Additionally, IMDb owns and operates Withoutabox (http://www.withoutabox.com), the premier submission service for film festivals and filmmakers, and Box Office Mojo (http://www.boxofficemojo.com), the leading online box-office reporting service. IMDb.com is operated by IMDb.com, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) (http://www.amazon.com).
Why would any studio and or the talent that subscribes to their services and Imdbpro services even trust Box Office Mojo if they are purposefully misstating their or industry projections and or estimates?

You are doing this because YOU don't like that Box Office Mojo is more right than you will EVER be. So in order to discredit them you create a lie about them?

Of course, boxoffice.com is lowballing it like they do with most WB and Universal films.

Prove it that Box Office Mojo is lowballing WB and Universal films specifically. By extension you are saying that BM is being partial to one studio over another by some reverse logic in your manipulative agenda that this benefits WB and Universal over let's say Disney.

I forgot this is all some crazy sport game that you are playing with BillBrown in full view because he (and others) use BoxOfficeMojo and YOU just don't like their sources.

But why lie?

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Ummmm...are you done?

You might want to take another look at the site I am referencing.

*hint* It ain't Boxofficemojo.com. I've NEVER had a problem with that site. Never.

But thanks anyway...I enjoyed the irrelevant rant.

LOL

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My apologies for the Non-relevant aspect of my rant, that would be a reference to Box Office Mojo, Boxofficemojo.com.

The relevant large bulk and detail of my post (rant) remains the same. Is that not odd? I'll leave the post up because regardless of if it was BoxOfficeMojo instead of BoxOfficePro every aspect of what you said and what you implied remains exactly the same.

So when I get a chance I'll re-issue a new, updated, new and improved missive directed and supporting the actual company that you accuse of willful deception of Box Office estimates.

Boxoffice.com

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It is actually good for the studios if they lowball it. Then when the film comes in higher than expected, it has positive buzz.

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Exactly.

Box office.com is notorious for overpredicting Disney films.

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Here is a case in point for you that makes ZERO sense of Low-Balling to build hype instead of OVER estimating to build hype tapping into a sense of demand creating a FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).

What happened to the missing Box office of Pokémon Detective Pikachu (2019)?

PDP had some pretty lofty estimate projection extremes from a reasonable $35 Million to a high $114 Million. WB estimated $58 Million and there were hosannas and excitement that it looked about to topple Avengers:Endgame or at least become precariously close. That figure along with the Friday totals would hopefully hype some tickets to be bought over the weekend. A:E $63 Million and PDP at $58? Oh man what a contest!! The headlines chronicled the results.

You want to know what the actual amount was for PDP? $54.4 Million. Did WB/Legendary over estimate or did it legitimately get their estimate that wrong? Incompetent or Insubordinate? How would an Under-Estimate or Low-Ball generate hype?

Or would Low-Balling give the sense that it OVER-performed because now it looks like PDP underperformed and it appears that it was Frontloaded for Friday and crowds and word-of-mouth affected the entire weekend.

What value would BoxOfficePro gain from Over-estimating Disney films? But yet you continue that they are notorious for ONLY over predicting Disney films and not all Studios.

Are they bad at predicting? Or do they have an agenda as you imply to affect the audience hype and box office receipts?

WB is a studio I see what they are attempting to do. An independent site? Please explain what is in it for them?

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I never ascribed INTENTIONS to box office.com and their usual overprojecting on Disney films. They may be taking for granted and/or assuming many things about Disney and their marketing/distribution muscle that tips the scales higher. The last three non-Marvel Disney releases were all overprojected by them for opening weekend and domestic total. They even projected that Mary Poppins Returns would end with a 360 million total!

If anything, Disney's two main rivals WB and Universal, get the opposite treatment and usually overperform their projections both in Opening Weekend and domestic totals.

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It is you who are stating Positive Causality (WB and Universal benefit) regardless of Intentionality which is your problem. You can't prove that BoxofficePro actually is doing that specific to Disney exclusively whereby WB and Universal can benefit.

You are also stating the following Of course, boxoffice.com is lowballing it like they do with most WB and Universal films which actually is doing them a favor as their actual numbers are bound to look like a huge overperformance.You state that BoxOfficePro does this with most WB and Universal films.

Your defensiveness would have some merit to non-intentionality if it read Boxofficepro Lowballs almost all films. By you stating that it is selective (Most WB and Universal are Lowballed and Disney is Overprojected) you create intentionality when there might not be any. BoxofficePro may very well be getting it wrong but they can't be JUST getting it wrong in opposite directions without some selective criteria and intention.

The last three non-Marvel Disney releases were all overprojected by them for opening weekend and domestic total. They even projected that Mary Poppins Returns would end with a 360 million total!
The problem with your Mary Poppins example is that was the initial long-range estimate. The keyword is INITIAL.

So you are stating that the INITIAL long-range tracking by them on Oct.26th for a movie due to release on Dec. 19th is supposed to be accurate and locked in as to it's amount of Over-Projection? When the final actuals came in, and was off by 50% from the INITIAL that was just bad. How did BP get it so wrong? By Nov 30th they were adjusting downward from their initial forecast. What do they get out of Over-Projecting Disney box office again? Ralph Breaks the Internet was $210 and finished at $201. RBTI doesn't fit your Disney/BoxOfficePro model. Does it? If RBTI was on target and MPR is off target that doesn't seem like usual for Over-Projecting Disney, now does it? Why Over-Project MPR and not RBTI?

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[–] alienzen (224) 3 hours ago
It is actually good for the studios if they lowball it. Then when the film comes in higher than expected, it has positive buzz
How is it GOOD for Studios (plural) and the Movie Industry if an independent tracking site Low-Balls an estimate?

How could it be GOOD for an independent tracking site to Low-Ball one Studio rather than another studio?

How is it GOOD for exhibitors to prepare their venues to host a movie over a low-ball and make the min/max screens available where they don't lose money or over or under commit to screens?

If your wife sets the clock in her room to be 15 minutes fast and the rest of the clocks in the house are the right time and she KNOWS the clock in her room are 15 minutes faster how does that keep her on time for an appointment?

Why not just Low-Ball every studio offering if you really think it builds hype?

How do investors deal with this Low Balling? You don't think that they follow box office estimate tracking to gauge overall performance?

You think that QueenfanUSA is making sense that an Independent Tracking site keeps it's credibility by intentionally Low-Balling one studio over another and that there are no repercussions?

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The studios have their own tracking. Investors invest their money before a film is even made, so I don't see how that is relevant. And I didn't say it was good for a site to low-ball one studio over another. I said it is better for the studios if a site lowballs rather than highballs, that is all.

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It is actually good for the studios if they lowball it. Then when the film comes in higher than expected, it has positive buzz.
THEY being the studio or THEY being the Independent site?

Why would the Independent site need or try or want to create buzz for a film selectively? QueenFanUSA is stating that BoxOfficePro does that selectively.

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It's still kickin' @ss in the #1 slot!

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It's not out in Japan and some other countries.

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https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4154796/releaseinfo?ref_=tt_dt_dt

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Huh, I thought Japan wouldn't get it until June or July. Ah well.

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Avengers:Endgame Japan Box office from BoxOfficeMojo.com

Japan......….Disney...……. 4/26/19...………..$13,176,307.........….38.1%...……..$34,556,268......….5/5/19

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