Dr Strange came out three years ago and we barely know anything about a future sequel. It took almost a decade for Marvel to ever make a full Thor trilogy as well. The second Ant-Man movie came out last summer, have they announced a sequel yet? Iron Man was the only character with fast-tracked sequels.
Dr.Strange, Thor or Ant-Man were successful, but NOT very successful. They passed break even, but not much more. Think that, right now, considering marketing, these movies must make about 3-4 times their budget
. Dr.Strange made 4 times its budget, Thor, 3 times its budget. Ant-Man, 4 times its budget.
Remember: right now, we're talking about 3-4 times the budget BEFORE having benefits.
The first Iron Man made 4 times its budget, but back then it was mostly domestic, foreign market was way smaller and so were marketing costs, not to say domestic gives higher percentage, so the movie was quite a money maker. And as you said, fast-tracked sequel.
Guardians of the Galaxy made 4.5 times its budget. Another fast-tracked sequel. The pattern is clear: fast-tracked sequels the moment the movies go beyond the break even let's say 'comfortably'.
Now the two political Marvel movies:
Black Panther made (supposedly) 6 TIMES its budgets. It took some months to decide before announcing the sequel. Captain Marvel has made (supposedly) 7 TIMES is budget. Two months later, they're still deciding whether to make a sequel or not.
Don't you see anything strange there? The numbers are way over the usual stuff. And however, they don't seem very thrilled about making sequels that could bring such amounts of money.
It doesn't make sense.
(Regarding GofG3, they were clearly waiting until the tweet scandal passed and they could hire him again. But that was a different and very specific problem).
Why do you think Captain Marvel and Black Panther didn't make as much money as they claim? Both made a billion, right? I don't follow box offices that much but as I understand it, Ragnarok, Civil War, and all the Avengers movies at least made a billion. Maybe Iron Man 3? The box offices seem consistent with what we've seen from previous MCU movies. As someone who has seen every Marvel movie in theaters in three different countries, the theaters always seem consistently packed. These movies are popular. They make money.
That said, I have no doubt a Captain Marvel sequel is in the works. I wouldn't be surprised if there's the first draft of a script somewhere. They're just not announcing it until later.
■ They're way out of the scale. Thor made 3 times its budget. Captain America, 2.5 times its budget. Iron Man, 4 times its budget. Dr.Strange, 4 times its budget. Then here comes Black Panther, a political movie, 6 times its budget!!. Captain Marvel, another political movie, a secondary character that keeps being canceled in the comic since nobody buys it, 7 times its budget!!
■ The two origin movies that go out of the scale are, what the odds, the two political movies where Disney would have an incentive to fake the numbers since those movies MUST succeed, just because. You don't do shit out of the blue. You need a motive. And here there's a clear political motive.
■ At the same time, Disney seems unthrilled about making sequels to movies that have (supposedly) brought so much money. You discover a golden moose and you go 'meeh'? That doesn't make sense... unless they know the real numbers are not that thrilling.
A lot of African Americans and women who wouldn't normally watch comic movies came out to watch Black Panther and Captain Marvel due to representation. Some people also speculate that since those movies were lead-ins to the big Infinity movies, that it resulted in higher box office numbers as well. Anyway, if Disney was buying up tickets for them as you claim, that wold mean they are losing millions of dollars. That strategy makes no sense. And certainly, if they were willing to do that for Captain Marvel or Black Panther, then why not Solo or Incredibles 2 or Dumbo? Incredibles 2 was just as "political" as Captain Marvel but it didn't do well.
Also, you contradict yourself. You say Disney is "unthrilled" (not a word) about a Captain Marvel movie while also stating that they are willing to fudge the numbers for a Captain Marvel movie. Which is it? Are they interested or not?
Political movies, the same as religious movies, don't need to make sense from a strategic point of view. There's a lot of things that Christian movies could do better to improve their strategy, but you know what? they don't because that would betray whatever message they send.
When you make movies because YOU BELIEVE, money becomes secondary and strategy focuses in what matters for believers: to spread the MESSAGE.
I think they are smart enough to know that there are multiple factors that effect box office. The Winter Soldier didn't make that much money, but is a lot of people's number one MCU film of all time. The Russos were given the reins of the MCU about a year after that film came out I think. Thor: the dark world made about the same numbers globally, but they found a new director for Thor 3, because they could see that it was a weak film.
Captain Marvel did good box office for every reason except the quality of the film itself. Kevin Feige is no doubt smarter than all of us when it comes to making movies, and knows this. Brie Larson has not endeared herself to the fanbase on or off screen. Captain Marvel needs to be fixed. They need new directors first of all.
If they didn't care about money, then they wouldn't go to the trouble of buying tickets and rigging the box office. Additionally, you claim that they will not be making a Captain Marvel sequel (despite evidence to the contrary) because it didn't make money. If Marvel didn't care about a movie that did not make money as long as it fit a narrative then they would make a Captain Marvel sequel.