Can it break even? - Captain Marvel (2019) Discussion

Who bought there own tickets?

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The idiot OP thinks Disney is secretly buying millions of dollars worth of tickets. He also thinks they are bribing critics and film rating sites. He likely also thinks the earth is flat and worries about chemtrails. And don't even get him started on the Boston Marathon bombing. He can't accept the truth, so he's become a truther! :)

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[–] furiousstyles (4359) 5 years ago

Could you supply a break down of all the costs for this movie seeing as you have assumed that it needs to make 750 million to break even, thanks.

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[–] kuku (3510) 5 years ago

The number was leaked to Deadline by Disney finance executives.

https://deadline.com/2019/03/captain-marvel-opening-weekend-box-office-breaks-records-1202571905/
By the end of its first week (or less), film finance executives are saying that Captain Marvel will hit $750M global-plus (even if it’s front-loaded) and pass break-even

Actually, because of the hard drop after the opening the movie didn't reach that number. But it serves well to know where is the break even.

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[–] galahadfairlight (414) 5 years ago

Wrong.

Firstly the headline of the article reads "Captain Marvel’ Rises To $154M U.S. Opening; Experts Say Female Superhero Pic Will Pass Breakeven In Week’s Time"

Absolutely NOTHING about DISNEY FILM FINANCE EXECUTIVES.

The only people who know for sure what the break even point is, is Disney, and you have nothing from Disney in that article.

The "hard drop" on the Monday is typical of lots of movies that open big on their opening weekend, Captain Marvel is nothing new in that respect.

As for YOUR claim that Disney are buying tickets, put up or shut up.

One thing is for sure, it doesn't need to make $750 for the break even point, and even if that were the case, everyone except YOU knows it'll surpass it easily.

Your "war" with Captain Marvel is over, she won, you lost, take it like a man ffs.

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[–] kuku (3510) 5 years ago

• Absolutely NOTHING about DISNEY FILM FINANCE EXECUTIVES.

Funny thing is I actually quoted the sentence where it talks about it. And then I put it in italics, after the link.

So you just had to reach the second paragraph of my comment, which shouldn't been that difficult considering that the first one had only 10 words. Anyway, you probably wont read this part of the comment. It passed your 10 words limit :-(

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[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 5 years ago

I really didnt even want to reply to this thread as is just poor trolling but ....

Captain Marvel had a 150 Million dollar Budget...

another 100 to 150 Million Marketing campaign...

Puts the break even point around 600 Million...

now heres why this is an EPIC fail of a trolling thread.

hypothetically lets say your made up number is true and CMs break even point is 750 M....

lol your Trolling is More Damaging and embarrassing for A DC film than Captain Marvel...

did you know, Wonder Woman had the exact same Budget as Captain Marvel(even Queen admits that)...

therefor, Wonder Woman's break even point had to be 750 Million too....

so you've now made a troll thread...where you accidentally just set the break even point for BOTH Wonder Woman and Captain Marvel at 750 M...

Hilariously...Captain Marvel is easily Going to top 1 Billion resulting in a Huge Profit.

Meanwhile Wonder Woman topped out at 811 M , which by your own standards mean in barely made a profit....

again I repeat...YOU are terrible at trolling...You did not even realize this troll thread was more damaging for Wonder Woman than Captain Marvel....

you should feel DEEP Shame...its not easy failing this horrifically!

PS....

note how I specifically called your 750 Million Break even point a hypothetical number...

the reason I did that is, there is Proof its not true...

Wonder Woman's profits are already accounted for....Wonder Woman(which had the exact same budget as Captain Marvel) netted a 262 Million total profit from its theatrical release...

that Means the Break even point was around 550 to 600 Million...

I'm sorry...you did no research before Making this thread...

The facts 100% prove you wrong and even if we went by your hypothetical made up numbers, Its MORE damaging for Wonder Woman than it is CM

again this is just the highest possible level of TROLLING FAILS....

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[–] TexasJack (12515) 5 years ago

The studios only keep about 33% of foreign box office, so they need a lot more than $600 million to break even with a $300 million production/marketing budget. For the same reason, I question the validity of your WW profit number, which implies a straight 50% split for both domestic and foreign box office.

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[–] ultravioletx (10216) 5 years ago

That 33% doesn't apply to Disney movies though. They have different deals with foreign theaters than other studios do.

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[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 5 years ago

For the same reason, I question the validity of your WW profit number, which implies a straight 50% split for both domestic and foreign box office.

^
next time you question the Validity of my statements, do a little research before hitting "add Reply"

https://www.comicbookmovie.com/wonder_woman/wonder-woman-is-the-most-profitable-comic-book-movie-of-2017-a158922

https://deadline.com/2018/03/wonder-woman-box-office-profit-2017-1202351443/

I only say things that are facts....

as for your 33% overseas take...

every studio is different and have different deals

I've read that Overseas, the studios get 40 to 45% and sometimes higher if they've partnered with certain counties

China is the ONLY country where its common for Studios to only get 25%....although Marvel Studios was extremely smart and Have Partnered with China on several MCU films and I've read they make more than the 25%.

bottom line the Break even point is 550-600 M

Disney Has above average deals with Theatrical chains where they basically strong arm them in to giving them More of a cut for thier Big Movies(read about what Disney did with The Last Jedi)

Studios usually get somewhere between 55 to 60% of Grosses for the first 2 or 3 weeks of a films release domestically, then it goes to 50/50...

Disney is probably getting anywhere from 60 to 65% of The MCU films, Star Wars, Live Action fairytales and Pixar films...

I get that you'll want to argue, but please just dont, I've been follow box office for almost 20 years now...

When Marvel Studios Greenlit Captain Marvel back in 2014,They werent having the success they've had the last 3 years...Marvel Studios would have never Greenlit CM if the break even point was 750 Million...

at that time, Cap 2 just made 712 and GOTG made 770...

of course now it doesnt seem like a big deal because 7 of the last 9 MCU have made over 850 Million...But when Marvel Studios greenlit CM in 2014, Thor 2 just made 650, Cap 2 made 712 and GOTG made 770....Marvel Studios or Disney wouldnt have Greenlit a movie that expensive, when The MCU films werent making that much.

to further put a nail in the 750 Million break even made up number the OP said....

Doctor Strange had a BIGGER budget than Captain Marvel...It cost 165 Million to make + 140 in Marketing and Promo...

and It Netted a 122 Million Profit off a 677 M final gross

https://deadline.com/2017/03/doctor-strange-box-office-profit-2016-1202050530/

Captain Marvel's Budget is 150M....Marketing is between 100 and 150 M....

thats LESS than Doctor Strange...

CM's break even point is 550 to 600 Million...Period...No arguing

After this Weekend Captain Marvel will already be More Profitable than Doctor Strange's 122 Million.....

again I say...be you question the validty of my statements and numbers do some research....

Literally all you had to do was google "Wonder Woman's profits"....over a dozen sites would have popped up stating its 252 Million....

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[–] QueenFanUSA (3375) 5 years ago

@billbrown

I don't want to keep dredging up old feuds but your argument for CM's break even point at 550-600 million means that Ralph Breaks the Internet is exactly the big money loser I always said it was since it's budget was 175 million and it's worldwide gross is just 520 million.

LOL

Remember you stating unequivocally that it would make "a LARGE profit"?

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[–] ultravioletx (10216) 5 years ago

It all depends what Ralph's marketing budget was. Disney/Pixar has different ad campaigns than Disney/Marvel.

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[–] QueenFanUSA (3375) 5 years ago

It couldn't be less than 100 million.

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[–] ultravioletx (10216) 5 years ago

And how much from the ancillary market (PPV, home video)? That stuff is known to bring in up to around $200 million with only about $40 million to produce it.

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[–] QueenFanUSA (3375) 5 years ago

That's a different story. I'm saying it's a money loser from it's theatrical run.

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[–] ultravioletx (10216) 5 years ago

Then you're missing a key ingredient of what makes movies winners and losers. It can be impossible to get the exact ancillary numbers but when a movie makes $500 million you can ballpark what the ancillary market will look like.

BvS for example probably didn't make much of a profit from its theatrical run. But it doesn't matter. Its still considered a hit because of that $873 million number. Its a hit because of what comes along with it. Primarily the ancillary market.

If there was no ancillary market then there would be no Justice League. And there might not be a Suicide Squad 2. And there wouldn't have been a GotG 2, Winter Soldier, Civil War, Dark World, Ragnarok, Iron Man 3 etc, etc, etc.

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[–] TJLamb0518 (3316) 5 years ago

Actually the percentages change country by country if memory serves.

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[–] TexasJack (12515) 5 years ago

It does. Lower than 33% for China, higher than 33% for other countries.

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[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 5 years ago

Actually the percentages change country by country if memory serves.

^^^
I agree thats what I said

It does. Lower than 33% for China, higher than 33% for other countries.

^^^^

what the validity of My Links good enough for you to now exact my statement that WWs profit was 252 M?

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[–] TexasJack (12515) 5 years ago

Yes, it makes sense now that I’ve seen the underlying data, which includes $280 million of revenue from sources other than theatrical box office.

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[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 5 years ago

sounds good

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[–] galahadfairlight (414) 5 years ago

You're being thick.

Quote the article where it SPECIFICALLY references Disney film executives.

You can't, because thats not what it says.

Here, let me help you out as you seem to have issues being honest:

"EARLY MONDAY AM UPDATE: Disney has yet to release its morning figures, but rivals are figuring that Captain Marvel came in with a $154 million opening after a $39M Sunday. Together with her overseas take of $302M –the fifth-best overseas debut of all time — global debut for the Disney pic stands at $456M. By the end of its first week (or less), film finance executives are saying that Captain Marvel will hit $750M global-plus (even if it’s front-loaded) and pass break-even in its theatrical cycle based off combined net production and global marketing costs of $300M."

Read the first line again. Disney has yet to release its morning figures, but RIVALS are figuring....

So that clearly infers that Disney hasn't said a thing, but RIVALS i.e. their competition have made an educated guess.

The "film finance executives" is still referring to Disney RIVALS. Disney is not quoted as saying a damn thing.

So go fuck yourself if you think you can tell me i've got a reading comprehension problem.

Oh, and heres the rest of my post that you couldn't challenge either,

Wrong.

Firstly the headline of the article reads "Captain Marvel’ Rises To $154M U.S. Opening; Experts Say Female Superhero Pic Will Pass Breakeven In Week’s Time"

Absolutely NOTHING about DISNEY FILM FINANCE EXECUTIVES.

The only people who know for sure what the break even point is, is Disney, and you have nothing from Disney in that article.

The "hard drop" on the Monday is typical of lots of movies that open big on their opening weekend, Captain Marvel is nothing new in that respect.

As for YOUR claim that Disney are buying tickets, put up or shut up.

One thing is for sure, it doesn't need to make $750 for the break even point, and even if that were the case, everyone except YOU knows it'll su

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[–] Roguemail (1562) 5 years ago

No point in arguing with cuckoo over things like this. They constantly look for articles and videos which support their own agenda and ignore things like truth, facts etc.

It does not matter what the real story is, or even if there is no real story and its entirely fictitious, they will always gravitate to the sort of stuff thats tailor made to wind them and people like them up.

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[–] EvilPinata (1186) 5 years ago

I'm also curious about Marvel evidently buying their own tickets. I keep seeing it mentioned though I haven't found any evidence that backs it up.

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[–] TJLamb0518 (3316) 5 years ago

These are the same bitter men who claimed that Disney bought critics and paid Rotten Tomatoes to rate Marvel movies well and DC movies poorly (despite the fact that RT is owned in part by WB, not Disney).

They are grasping at straws and you never see these people making these threads about say...Aquaman nor will you see them about Shazam (which may be the first superhero movie since Elektra I have no intention of seeing in a theater).

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[–] darkpast (8032) 5 years ago

its making 1.1b so yes

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[–] NorrinRad (5017) 5 years ago

[–] darkpast (1763) a few seconds ago
its making 1.1b so yes

The conspiracy theory will expand to Disney buying $1 Billion dollars worth of tickets. The actual audience will only be $100 Million.

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[–] Satan2016 (23312) 5 years ago

It seems you is on the edge. Disney is actually run by Skrulls!

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[–] TexasJack (12515) 5 years ago

The marketing costs are in the article you linked; it places the combined production and marketing costs at $300 million.

I think $750 million is about right for break-even and I think it will reach $850 million total, for tidy profit of at least $100 million even before adding Blu-Ray and digital streaming rentals and purchases.

This article does a good job of laying out the math. Interestingly, the example it uses -- Hunger Games: Catching Fire -- is the movie I've been looking to as a predictor of CM's box office path.

https://www.quora.com/What-percentage-of-box-office-revenues-goes-to-the-makers-of-the-movie-When-a-movie-is-said-to-have-made-10M-in-the-box-office-how-much-of-that-goes-to-the-movie-makers?share=1

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[–] wickerman1271 (940) 5 years ago

$850 million total ? It will be already at 700+ at the end of this week-end

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[–] TexasJack (12515) 5 years ago

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=marvel2018a.htm

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=catchingfire.htm

The daily totals to this point are remarkably similar and Catching Fire ended up at $856 million.

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[–] [deleted] 5 years ago

domestically? they'll end up close together i'd expect.
cm will likely make $150-200m more than catching fire internationally.
if not more.
it's vanishingly unlikely that cm will make less than a billion world wide.
i think we can put a pin on that figure as being close to its minimum.

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[–] TexasJack (12515) 5 years ago

You may be right. The foreign box office is very impressive so far.

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[–] maul (1530) 5 years ago

Will it?

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[–] ultravioletx (10216) 5 years ago

If I had to guess I would say the break-even number is around $600 million. And even that could be high-balling it. We're probably looking at an all-inclusive production cost of $270 million. While studios tend to get less than a 50% cut from overseas markets Disney is good at cutting deals to get closer to that 50/50 mark. But also when we are talking about the worldwide number it includes the US and isn't just overseas.

Honestly I see this making between $150 million and $250 million in profit which is excellent for a $250-$300 million all-inclusive production cost.

Though I have to admit that its funny to see the haters even bring up these numbers for CM when they were so busy cheering for Aquaman and Wonder Woman and too busy being absolutely quiet for Justice League. Heh.

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[–] TJLamb0518 (3316) 5 years ago

So....your full name is kuku for kokoa puffs?

Because that’s what you are, pudding.

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