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Captain Marvel already being downgraded on opening box office predictions

posted 5 years ago by DarthRoger (867)
28 replies | jump to latest

I found this YouTube video that a fellow CBM geek told me about. I've linked it below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfL3qNX-9P0

Could this be proof that the swerve to identity politics in Captain Marvel's marketing campaign (plus Brie Larson being Brie Larson) is hurting the enthusiasm for this movie. It's a shame but so many have warned Marvel/Disney about going this route.

Initially it was projected that CM would pull in around 160-180 million on it's opening weekend. Then that figure was downgraded to only 160 million and now the box office watchers and sites are suggesting it will open to 100 million.

Of course, these are merely opening weekend projections but it's interesting that they keep downgrading how much this movie will make.

Guess we will wait and see.

[–] Satan2016 (23270) 5 years ago

No, it could not be proof. Different people, different estimates. What's their track record?

[–] QueenFanUSA (3374) 5 years ago

The whole 160-180 million prediction was always laughable on it's face.

Mind you.
.these are the same people that predicted. Mary Poppins Returns to be a Christmas sensation and gross 360 million domestically when it didn't even make half of that.

[–] AP (5256) 5 years ago

The article cited in this vid had nothing to do with identity politics but rather, the movie being an origin film. Solo origin films don't usually break records. MCU's big money makers have always been the team ups and the sequels. That's just how it works. It will probably do Dr Strange/Ant-Man numbers which are still good. Why do people think all MCU films need to make a billion?

[–] QueenFanUSA (3374) 5 years ago

Very true. It only hurts the film when the expectations bar is set so high. Box office.com seems to like to do this to Disney.

160 million opening?!?!?!

440 million domestic total?!?!?!?!

Disney has to be pissed at sites like that.

[–] AP (5256) 5 years ago

440 million is decent. Not every movie has to make a billion dollars.

[–] QueenFanUSA (3374) 5 years ago

440 million DOMESTIC is beyond "decent"...that's downright phenomenal!

I also think it's highly unlikely this film reaches that number.

40 million more than Wonder Woman? I don't think so.

[–] AP (5256) 5 years ago

Remember all the times you said something and you were wrong? It seems to happen 100% of the time with you. You should probably give it up.

[–] QueenFanUSA (3374) 5 years ago

Wrong 100% of the time?

I knocked this holiday season out of the park with correct predictions on Nutcracker(flop), The Grinch(huge hit), Ralph(expensive underperformer), Aquaman(dominated holiday box office) and Nary Poppins Returns( I openly laughed at the pre-release predictions of 360 million domestic).

Yeah...my batting average is horrible. LOL.

And you?

You're now on record predicting 440 million domestic for a Captain Marvel movie.

Good luck with that!

[–] AP (5256) 5 years ago

I never predicted that. I don't predict box offices because it's pointless.

I will elaborate and say that I have only seen you make predictions regarding Marvel movies. Although I've heard you predicted Justice League would make a billion. Not sure if that's true.

[–] QueenFanUSA (3374) 5 years ago

Yes...Justice League was a big MISS on my part and I wholly own it.

[–] MovieFan007 (317) 5 years ago

You've obviously misread something here, there's only 18 movies that earned more that 440M domestic, to call 440M decent basically means every other movie ever made in our history, besides these 18, was a financial flop (talking about the North American releases of course).

[–] AP (5256) 5 years ago

I guess I did misread. I thought the 440m was a world wide box office figure. 440m domestic would be massive, you're right.

[–] MovieFan007 (317) 5 years ago

440M total would be a flop. A Marvel movie with less than 500M? In this day and age? Decent my a**. Decent would be 650M, 800M great, 900M excellent, 1B phenomenal.

[–] QueenFanUSA (3374) 5 years ago

Excellent posts, Moviefan.

[–] AP (5256) 5 years ago

IIRC, the first Ant Man didn't make 500 million. Did Dr Strange? I see Captain Marvel making about as much as they did. People were making a big deal about Ant Man and Wasp getting 600 million. It seems like 440m is adequate enough to be considered a profit, depending on the budget.

[–] MovieFan007 (317) 5 years ago

Dr Strange did make to 500M. So did both Ant Man's. What are you talking about here?

[–] AP (5256) 5 years ago

The second Ant-Man made over 600m (I only know this because some idiot said he would eat shit if it did this, which would be the only time I closely paid attention to the BO). I did not know how much Strange or the first Ant-Man made, which was why I asked.

[–] MovieFan007 (317) 5 years ago

Yeah I'm not buying that. It didn't come of as an honest question, more like someone being condescending.

[–] AP (5256) 5 years ago

Okay then. I really don't care and I wonder why you are so emotionally invested.

[–] MovieFan007 (317) 5 years ago

Emotionally invested, not so much. Just wanted to point out how you "see Captain Marvel making about as much" as the first Ant Man and Dr Strange. Tell me how you can see that, while also not knowing how much those two earned? Somewhat of a paradox I'd say.

[–] AP (5256) 5 years ago

You do not know the meaning of the word paradox.

[–] MovieFan007 (317) 5 years ago

You're desperately trying to change the subject, better go back and edit your earlier posts. Cause most of them were ridiculous. Calling a movie of Captain Marvel caliber decent by making 440M worldwide? That's just bonkers.

[–] AP (5256) 5 years ago

https://proxy.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2F1.bp.blogspot.com%2F-Q0m_AbOjOQs%2FVZI12h_VzUI%2FAAAAAAAAqAY%2FbehRVXJAnAU%2Fs1600%2FTakashi-Murakami-Inochi.jpg&f=1

[–] kuku (3510) 5 years ago

Solo origin films don't usually break records. MCU's big money makers have always been the team ups and the sequels. That's just how it works.

This is not some isolated origin story. It's the link between Infinity War and End Game, and first act in the end of the whole Marvel cycle. If this movie is not the highest grossing box office among origin stories, then something is going wrong.

[–] MovieFan007 (317) 5 years ago

It's not that big of a link, if it was set in the period between the IW and EG then I'd agree with you, but with a character that was never before seen in anything Marvel outside the CM trailers? That covers trailers AND post credit scenes in other Marvel movies.

[–] Frogarama (12942) 5 years ago

Average casual moviegoers likely don't know Cap Marvel is a link between Avengers 3.1 and 3.2

[–] MovieFan007 (317) 5 years ago

I remember watching IW, most of the audience remained waiting for the post credits scene and most of them were confused when CM logo appeared.

CM will earn decent/excellent depending on the quality of the movie itself, but I don't expect that big push coming from Avengers.

[–] Coleburg83 (684) 5 years ago

Go Woke Go Broke