Is 700-800 million worldwide realistic?
Or is 600 something that Marvel should hope for?
Budget will probably be close to 200 million
But it will have been 4 years since the last Thor film (and 2 years since his Age of Ultron appearance). will fans be full of glee to see him again?
*bump*
shareToo early to tell.
So far the core comic fans are liking a lot of what we are hearing-- less Earth, more focus on Thor himself, Hulk involved, no Jane Foster, etc. but the general movie goers and casual fans are probably barely even aware its being made until the first trailer hits.
The Dark World was decently received, but has since soured on some people.
But hopefully with strong buzz and a fresh new energy being brought in by a talented director, it will garner more attention the closer to release it gets.
700m-750m is a fair early guess if it looks bigger and bolder than the Dark World.
Since there are no earth characters in this, and adding Banner/Hulk and Cate Blanchett, the cast itself seems that much stronger. With the Ragnarok storyline, they seem to be taking advantage of other galaxies, since most of the film will be in the cosmos.
I have a feeling that with Thor and Hulk teaming up and good word of mouth, this might have potential to reach a billion. I know the Justice League releases two weeks after, but Dawn of Justice was poorly received; while it wasn't a financial flop, it was still disappointing, considering it had three of the biggest heroes on screen for the first time; it should've easily made a billion and that's sad. Its hard to tell if Justice League will crack a billion. Thor has always done well internationally, so I feel like the numbers will be on his side more so than the Justice League.
A lot of things going against it...
-Thor has replaced Cap as the whipping boy of the MCU. Thor was kewl in phase 1, while Cap was considered a clown. Winter Soldier, and Russo kung fu fighting, made Cap kewl. The Dark World made Thor the new unkewl one. The Thor movies are at the bottom of 99% of the fanatic's MCU films lists. Feige has to do something before Ragnar OK to make Thor kewl again.
-Civil War gave "rubs" to the two movies that come before and after Ragnarok. It's bad enough that Thor is the least kewl among the MCU fanboys. Add to that, that Spider-Man Homecoming and Black Panther were made kewler, due to the rub that Spider-Man and Black Panther got from Civil War.
They were put in kewl Russo kung fu scenes, that got the fanboys salivating for the solo films. Spidey comes out in late July, BP in early Feb 2018. Thor is sandwiched between the two that November, with no anticipation rub from Civil War, no end credits tease, nothing. The three movies are crammed together in a short time frame, and Thor, being the unkewl one of the three, is the one the fanboys will most likely figure they can pass on.
-Ragnarok will receive the least co-star (box office bait) support of the late 2017 movies. Civil War got Robert Downey Jr, Spider-Man, the Black Panther debut, and 99% of the Avengers...Spider-Man will have Robert Downey Jr...Black Panther will likely have Winter Soldier, and possibly the entire team Cap, including Captain America. Ragnarok has...Hulk...a character not included in Civil War, not getting the Russo rub. Hulk had 2 solo film bombs. This is no Robert Downey Jr. Hulk was hot in 2012, due to stealing Avengers, but his stock dropped after an underwhelming AOU. Ragnarok will have the weakest co-star box office bait.
-Ragnarok will have the strongest competition. Guardians 2 will get that first week of may spot, where other studios avoid Marvel. All it will have to worry about is Fast 8 lingering. Spidey is in late July, as the big summer releases slow down, and riskier projects come out. Black Panther is in February, considered a movie trash dump month. Ragnarok has DC's "Avengers" event film to deal with 2 weeks later.
The core MCU fan base is only about 10%. They'll support Marvel Studios no matter what. The other 90% are just riding the current bandwagon, and can hop on another one at any moment. The minute it looks like Justice League will be the kewler movie, they'll transform into DC fans, and Justice League will crush Ragnarok.
So it's important that Feige do something to change the lemming like mindset of the MCU fanatics, that Thor is pinata of the MCU. He could have EASILY done it by putting a Thor scene in Civil War. They consider the Russos gods, and if Thor appeared in their movie, the lemmings, I mean fanatics would consider Thor kewl again.
But as it stands right now, I see a slight domestic improvement over Thor 2, 220 or something. Most of the increase will come from overseas, 550, for a WW total of 770. Which isn't bad, considering everything-including studio indifference-going against it.
Duration of current break from Cap, Bucky, Falcon: 2 Years, 1 Day, 10 Hours, 30 minutes, 21 Seconds
I mostly agree, but maybe not quite so doom and gloom.
My main beefs -
- are that Captain America is now the poster boy, but largely because he stars in an unofficial Avengers movie. With so many in the cast of course all the Marvel fans had to see it. But I'm fine with not shoehorning Thor into this Civil War with a cast of thousands.
-also about the timing of November 2017, and as you say only TWO weeks before Justice League. So there's no way it's going to make the most of it's BO potential.
So for the new director there must be so much pressure, after Civil War's success. Especially with the popularity of so many superheroes these days - there's a lot of competition for character loyalty.
It looks like they're taking Thor more seriously now as a character, with the Ragnarok storyline, but it might be too late considering the competition for next year. Guardians 2 and the new Spiderman get summer releases (both of which are coming off of strong films), Thor will get two weeks in the spotlight, then the Justice League. His opportunity to be more popular was wasted with Thor 2, by making it a Jane/Loki story. I hope he's able to up his profile more, so Ragnarok has to be an amazing film. At the very least Thor has the MCU to back him on box office, while the Justice League is coming off of BvS, which basically turned off the general audience.
shareThings that could help
-though Thor replaced Cap as the fanboy's pinata, Loki is still considered kewl. They want Loki in his own movie without Thor . Loki may be the bait to lure the fanboys to the movie.
-Hulk took a hit to his kewlness from Avengers, with the lackluster AOU showing. But the fanbys still crave anot her Hulk solo film, particularly Planet Hulk. If Marvel can put a little Planet Hulk storyline in, that may lure the fanboys in.
-Oscar winner Cate Blanchett may win over the old, crusty RT reviewers that hate CGI action movies. The movie gets high RT scores, upping it's coolness factor, enticing the bandwagon fanboys to hop aboard.
-possible first look at Thanos in action.
Duration of current break from Cap, Bucky, Falcon: 2 Years, 1 Day, 10 Hours, 30 minutes, 21 Seconds
Between $600 and 700 million seems on target.
What's missing in movies is same as in society: a good sense of work ethic and living up to ideals.
I'd say $650-$700 million is likely the realistic aim of "Thor: Ragnarok." However, it could easily overperform if it ends up being unusually good, especially now with its very loaded cast.
"Lives with no meaning go straight past you, like trains that don’t stop at your station."
The last one made $644 million. With the cast that it has and the good will from Civil War, I think $700-$800 million is absolutely possible.
shareGotta agree with most in the thread, anywhere from $700 million to upper limit of $900 million. And more than likely landing in the middle. I feel certain it will be the most successful Thor film easily.
"Time is the fire in which we burn."
50 million more than Thor:TDW.
Great cast, more attention being paid to the movie, Ruffalo to challenge Helmsworths' (and Hiddleston's?) acting in the character beats, which is where Marvel shines.
JL will hurt it - ish - only IF it gets good reviews. Otherwise, it will do what the DCEU has been doing so far, open big enough to make money and trail off into lowered expectations.
But in the modern world only billion dollar movies are still playing in a significant number of theaters six weeks after release date. Even if Ragnarok reaches Civil War quality it is not a billion dollar movie.
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#TeamCap
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