Will this suffer the same fate as 'First Man' ??

says you. Fred Rogers was awesome. So the movie will be awesome too.

Suffer extreme backlash for omitting key historical moments from the show? Maybe.

Tom Hanks doesn't hate America.

Not the same fate - possibly a different one and possibly worse financially - which is what really counts I guess.
First Man was a brilliantly made film about a man the whole world knows who did great things whilst apparently struggling with great loss. I liked it very much and I think the people who condemned it for not being yet another flag waving exercise missed the point.
I have no idea who Fred Rogers was and I suspect no one outside of North America and perhaps of a certain age does either. I suspect it's returns depend entirely on the USA cinema going public and I'm guessing it's not the kind of film that will draw them in.