The vacation story is: the Kaiser did expect Austria to crush Serbia while he was away. BUT, the German General Staff, headed by Moltke, decided to use the occasion to crush Russia, either by detaching her from France or beating her in battle. The series does not make it quite clear that the military was looking for a war, or quite ready to follow a strategy with a high risk of war.
They had already helped draft an impossible ultimatum to Serbia (not entirely the Kaiser's idea,as this show says). The General a Staff then forced France into war by giving *her* an impossible ultimatum. The TV show tries to say this was an isolated move by some rogue general, but most historians think not.
In summary, it was :
"We don't trust you to be neutral. Hand over the fortresses of Toul, Belfort, Epinal and Verdun and a ten mile strip of land next to the Franco-German border to be occupied by Germany, to keep you harmless After the War is over, we'll give it all back, honest!"
The General Staff knew very well that a France still smarting over the loss of Alsace-Lorraine would never accept such a humiliating ultimatum. But if they did, Germany would get immense benefit without war, the savings in men and munitions would make the next gamble they might make even better.
The Army was the real power in Germany. When the Kaiser expressed doubts about invading Belgium, he was told it was going ahead, with or without him - that is, agree or be deposed. By war's end, the military men Hindenburg and Ludendorff were the virtual dictators of Germany, and the Army deposed the Kaiser in 1918 when they thought it would get them better peace terms from the Allies.
The war guilt clause of the treaty of Versailles was not as far adrift as a disillusioned post-war generation thought. If "Germany" may be defined as the militarist Junkers of the Army - and they certainly thought it was - then the First World War was made in Germany.
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