The plan to ERASE the Sequel Trilogy - Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker (2019) Discussion

Probably the best SW news I have heard since watching TLJ.

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5. the Sequel Trilogy is the last star wars movie staring Carrie Fisher. so if they erase TLJ, they also erasing Fisher last movie.

this would ruined Carrie Fisher's legacy.

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[–] [deleted] 4 years ago

I really doubt she would mind, to be honest. She flies like Mary Poppins in that when she's meant to be dead.

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[–] JimmyFishCakes (451) 4 years ago

I think these films ruined everyone’s legacy.

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[–] blue1981 (6408) 4 years ago

Her legacy is from the original trilogy only.

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[–] ghostrider38 (1034) 4 years ago

her legacy is part of the Sequel Trilogy too.

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[–] blue1981 (6408) 4 years ago

No its not because the movies are fucking shit.

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[–] ghostrider38 (1034) 4 years ago

no, they are not.

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[–] jekporkins (1921) 4 years ago

No offense, but we're not talking about Sir Lawrence Olivier here. What legacy? Carrie Fisher was a B actress who had famous parents and lived a crazy life. And I don't think she would disagree with me if she was still alive.

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[–] [deleted] 4 years ago

[deleted]

[–] arflexit (2376) 4 years ago

I think you are both right to hope for it and right that it likely will not happen. One correction I will make though on point #2

The Star Wars seqeul (films as a whole) have not made BILLIONS for Disney. if you break down the numbers of initial investment, production budget plus marketing budget, Payroll and expenses for Lucas Film, taxes, plus any other costs associated with Lucas film or the movies and then look at the film's gross and then only 60 percent of that goes to the Studio that produced the film (theaters get 40%); this means that Disney only got about half of gross as revenue for each film; so if you minus the combination of expenses to make the films against the actual revenue; only TFA made them good money the other films barely broke even from Disney's perspective. This means they are (at best) still very much in the hole on the 4 billion dollar initial investment (buying the rights to Star Wars).

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[–] furiousstyles (4359) 4 years ago

You forget merch and licencing Disney + among other things, think this is just wishful thinking on your behalf and not facts, they made shit loads on merch in the first 3 years of the purchase.

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[–] arflexit (2376) 4 years ago

Then why is Hasbro refusing to produce more of their toys. Toy sales are down across the board. Go into any store and see how much star wars merch is on the shelves compared to how it looked 10 years ago. The sales are in the tank for merchandising, and also the merchandising companies get about 60 to 90% of the profit from the merch sales, They pay disney a licensing fee for use of the product, which is usually about 10 to 40% of what they are production/selling. Licensing for Disney + will not see an ROE for another 5 years at least. This is not wishful thinking this a breakdown of the numbers; it is all public knowledge, nothing is hidden. Where am I wrong specifically?

The average salary at Lucas film is $79370 per year and they staff 2,000 employee as of 2015. That is $158 million per year for just the payroll (that is not included in production and marketing budget and other expenses, that is ONLY payroll). Then the box office; disney only gets about 60% (average) of the box office in revenue then if you take a look at the net profit from that revenue they are barely making money on these films. Not nearly enough to make up for that initial 4 Billion dollar investment. TFA is the ONLY film that brought in Disney some serious net profit all other films it as been estimated as a 50 to 100 million dollar net profit at best (for all but Solo which official lost money). But then that does not account for the financing of lucasfilm itself, this is a hedging game by the way, how business do this with subsidiaries. This means that they are still Billions away from seeing that ROE.

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[–] furiousstyles (4359) 4 years ago

Again this is just your opinion and not fact , some reputable news agencies report that lucasfilm have made the 4 billion back , to say they are billions away from making it back is nonsense and just fits the agenda you have against Disney.

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[–] Kowalski (57180) 4 years ago

THATS A LOT OF HOMEWORK FOR SUCH A STUPID POINT.

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[–] arflexit (2376) 4 years ago

My point is stupid? why? I am just looking at the numbers available and trying calculate a conclusion on the question of 'is star wars still profitable" From the numbers I am seeing, no it is not; or at least not nearly as profitable as it was and could still be.

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[–] furiousstyles (4359) 4 years ago

And where did you obtain the data?

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[–] arflexit (2376) 4 years ago

Google.com it is all public records:

First Lucasfilms payroll:

average salary: https://www.payscale.com/research/US/Employer=Lucasfilm%2C_Ltd./Salary

https://www.zippia.com/lucasfilm-careers-29925/salary/

Now number of employee: https://www.owler.com/company/lucasfilm

https://www.zippia.com/lucasfilm-careers-29925/

Wikepidia claims it was 2000 employees as of 2015; zippia confirms this same number. Owler puts it at over 1500; but does not say when the date is.

Linkedin places the number at 2766 employees: https://www.linkedin.com/company/lucasfilm/people/

Now TFA actual costs:

https://financebuzz.com/how-much-did-star-wars-the-force-awakens-cost-to-make

https://www.thedrum.com/news/2016/01/18/star-wars-force-awakens-raked-more-25-every-1-ad-spend
(this one shows that the advertising (not full marketing just advertising) was 1/25 of the total box office or about 83 million just on advertising which is about half of the total marketing.)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/star-wars-carries-its-own-marketing-weight-for-disney-1449536686

Here is an article that discusses the averages of marketing budgets: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/200-million-rising-hollywood-struggles-721818#:~:text=In%201980%2C%20the%20average%20cost,in%20Our%20Stars%20or%20Tammy.

Shall I go on with TLJ, Rogue one, Solo, and TROS? and then breakdown the 60% revenue and what that means for net profit. Then add that number up and subtract it to show how much left over till they reach the RoE on the 4 billion dollar initial investment.

TFA made a crazy amount of money for disney (yes that is true) probably over 500 million directly to disney. But since then it has been diminishing and there is absolutely no way they have an RoE on that 4 billion purchase, no way; the numbers just do not add up. Unless they are selling the film under the table somehow. Blu ray and DVD sales only amounted to 190 million for TFA and disney only got about 70% of that.

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[–] furiousstyles (4359) 4 years ago

Research the merchandising and licensing, it made disney a couple of billion from 2015 to 2018

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[–] arflexit (2376) 4 years ago

source?

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[–] arflexit (2376) 4 years ago

Here I found some contridicting your claim about how much profit disney has made from Star Wars alone:

https://www.economist.com/business/2019/12/16/will-star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-rebalance-disneys-universe

here is one that points out the total of merchandising sales from the licensing of from 2012 to 2018:

https://variety.com/2017/film/news/star-wars-movies-licensed-merchandise-1202438161/

The total in revenue for the sales for 6 years was 252.6 Billion; which sound like a lot; but the sources don't disclose the full amount; and that number is suspicious because Disney's total net profit for 2018 was 12.5 billion. So how much of that 252 billion Disney saw is unknown; but it is definitely not even a fraction.

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[–] arflexit (2376) 4 years ago

Do you know what hedging means; there is literally no way they could have possibly made the money back not with having to bank role lucaus films; produce and market the films; and then only see about 60% of the box office. These are facts BTW; not opinions. Plus with the merchandising sales being much lower then they were in previous years before the disney era they would have had to be making something like a billion dollars per year (in net profit not just in revenue) on merchandising alone. I could be wrong about this, but I seriously, seriously doubt they net profited that much from merchandising. I could be wrong but I would have to see some evidence to the contrary.

You are not arguing against my facts and my evidence (I have given the numbers and the facts) you have responded with "some unspecified vague news agencies says diseny made a profit" and then used a circumstantial ad hominem (appeal to motive) to attack and discredit my character and not my 'facts'. present some numbers to the contrary and not just some general "you are wrong because disney says they profited and your a bias". Even if I am bias ( which I am not, I don't care if disney made money; so your ad hominem called into question my motives on false pretenses. This is like a textbook example of a bad faith argument. Ague the facts and stop attacking my character. Try this: Is my information on the average income of the 2000 employees at Lucas film (which calculates out to 158 million dollar per year in payroll) incorrect? If it is, provide some evidence to the contrary.

I could be wrong. I am just going off all the numbers we have available. If you have different numbers you can present as EVIDENCE, then present the damn EVIDENCE.

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[–] furiousstyles (4359) 4 years ago

If you have facts, could you please quote your source? Thanks in advance.

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[–] arflexit (2376) 4 years ago

Here i'll share the links again; there are more than this of course but I am not sure yet if you are worth finding more. How about you; where are your sources that show they have reached RoE?

Google.com it is all public records:

First Lucasfilms payroll:

average salary: https://www.payscale.com/research/US/Employer=Lucasfilm%2C_Ltd./Salary

https://www.zippia.com/lucasfilm-careers-29925/salary/

Now number of employee: https://www.owler.com/company/lucasfilm

https://www.zippia.com/lucasfilm-careers-29925/

Wikepidia claims it was 2000 employees as of 2015; zippia confirms this same number. Owler puts it at over 1500; but does not say when the date is.

Linkedin places the number at 2766 employees: https://www.linkedin.com/company/lucasfilm/people/

Now TFA actual costs:

https://financebuzz.com/how-much-did-star-wars-the-force-awakens-cost-to-make

https://www.thedrum.com/news/2016/01/18/star-wars-force-awakens-raked-more-25-every-1-ad-spend

https://www.wsj.com/articles/star-wars-carries-its-own-marketing-weight-for-disney-1449536686

Here is an article that discusses the averages of marketing budgets: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/200-million-rising-hollywood-struggles-721818#:~:text=In%201980%2C%20the%20average%20cost,in%20Our%20Stars%20or%20Tammy.

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[–] [deleted] 4 years ago

Thanks very much for the clarification, Arflexit :)

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[–] arflexit (2376) 4 years ago

You are welcome.

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[–] furiousstyles (4359) 4 years ago

what did he clarify? Absolutely nothing.

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[–] arflexit (2376) 4 years ago

Which number am I wrong on? Name one and present EVIDENCE to the contrary. SHOW ME THE EVIDENCE. I have provided numbers, calculations, and logic. You have replied with ad hominems and appeals to vague unspecified news reports. That is not evidence; that is logic fallacies (sophistry). And I like how you try spamming my other conversations with other users. More evidence of bad faith argumentation. SHOW ME SOME EVIDENCE OR SHUT UP WITH YOUR CHARACTER ATTACKS AND CONDESCENDING B.S.

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[–] Ace_Spade (9334) 4 years ago

It won't happen. They might start re-making things eventually, but they'll want to milk as much as they can out of Blue-Rays, Disney+ subscriptions, and toys/merchandising as they ever-so-possibly can. They invested billions of dollars into this, so I don't think they'll reboot.

1. I already headcanon whittled myself down to the OT. Don't need the before and after - it's all just soul-crushing shadows of the OT. But, if they remade the sequels, I'd be all for them re-tooling the PT, too. Why not?
2. Yup.
3. She'll probably want to move forward, not back.
4. Who cares?

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[–] thenewnexus (1905) 4 years ago

Will they do the same with the Star Trek movies(Abram series) which seems to acknowledge the old canon?

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[–] furiousstyles (4359) 4 years ago

What about the people that like the Sequel trilogies ? so do we have to remake movies for all you man babies that didnt like them ?

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[–] arflexit (2376) 4 years ago

"man babies"?

Why use such a derogatory term to describe the majority of people that didn't like the films other than TFA? Most people did not like TLJ and most people were not impressed with TROS. To write off everyone as just man babies is both way too simplistic and insulting.

This is more than about people not liking them though; the brand itself has lost a majority of its selling power. These are not indi films that are designed to catch a specific and small audience. Star Wars was a brand that had a large diverse groups of fans. The sequel trilogy reduced that to a very specific subset of the fanbase (and did not do a great job of capturing new fans either). If a company's product is not selling as well as it did before they often will try to turn it back or do something different. They are not going to bank role movies that cost 300 million to produce and 200 million to market so that 20% of the possible consumer base is happy.

I doubt an 'erase' will happen; I imagine more they will try to distance themselves from the ST though or embrace it and very much reduce the 'cost' of producing the media. So it won't be as epic but much smaller almost independent films and series. But who knows what the future holds. I know I have zero interesting in anything Disney Star Wars produces until they get rid of Kennedy and I start hearing they are producing good quality again.

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[–] furiousstyles (4359) 4 years ago

Rogue one, solo, mandalorian and TFA are all good quality, 20% of the customer base is happy? I think if you take the average ratings of the tv shows and movies its more like 65% , plus theres some good stuff on the horizon to look fwd to.

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[–] arflexit (2376) 4 years ago

this is moving the goal posts, the OP is talking about the ST only not the other films/shows. But Rogue One and Mandalorian are okay quality; I have not seen Solo so I cannot judge it; but TFA was NOT good quality (it had high production quality but it is one of the worst written big budget movies I have ever seen; worse than most Transformer only with worse continuity and destruction of mythos and lore; not to mention the shoddy performances and terrible pacing). The 20% I was referring to was specific to TLJ which was so bad and disliked it sank Solo's chances (which were already low) at being financially successful.

And because only about 20% liked TLJ this means the general feeling about the sequel trilogy as a whole is only about 20% if you look at the trilogy as the sum of its parts. I think if you asked 1000 people fewer than 200 would say they were happy with and enjoyed the entire ST as a whole; which is what the OP is talking about (not any of the other 'good stuff' on the horizon) but specifically on the ST.

Your statement was calling out the "manbabies" (totally unfair assessment considering many female fans did not enjoy TLJ either, and how about all the men that just didn't like it, are they all man babies by default?). Your attribute the idea of erasing the ST as a result of complaining manbabies; which is preposterous; Disney would not even consider something like that unless they were concerned about the MAJORITY of the audience that was unhappy with the sequel trilogy and not a few manbabies that represented a small vocal minority. The diminishing returns on the Star Wars franchise is a direct sign of its decreasing reception by the audience.

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[–] furiousstyles (4359) 4 years ago

Decreasing decline? How so considering people can't wait for season 2 of the mandalorian, can't wait for kenobi ? You havent seen Solo ?and you call yourself a star wars fan ? Thank god people like you werent around when the originals got released, there would be no empire strikes back . Just so glad I was born in the era of the originals , we get the true essence of star wars , you will never ever get that or feel it.

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[–] arflexit (2376) 4 years ago

So only someone that pays to see every Star Wars film no matter the quality is a true fan; get out of here with that 'no true Scotsman' fallacy. Why is that people that like TFA cannot make a single argument free of sophistry?

The actual numbers show diminishing return for each installment of the franchise. It is doing much worse than it should be. and despite the success of Mandalorian a good portion of the fan base is not thrilled with Star Wars.

I am not someone that just hates whatever is popular; or just hates to hate; I would have loved the originals when they were released just as much as I loved them when I got to first watch them on VHS in the late 80's or catch them on TV I don't remember exactly the first time I watched them.. I didn't even get the full theater experience and absolutely loved them

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[–] janelsenor (2042) 4 years ago

It will never happen.

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