I'm guessing it will be lower than TLJ. The Thursday previews were 40m, that's 5m lower than TLJ. I thought it would be worse to be honest. I was expected like 150m weekend or worse. If word of mouth is bad enough, it could happen I guess. Could it dip below a billion worldwide at the end of its run? One can dream.
share175m+
shareI'd be an $8,000,000,000 OW if it weren't for the man-babies.
shareIt's always been my contention that TROS would be lucky to get anywhere close to TLJ and it appears that will be the case. A 200+million OW appears to be off the table but it should open right around Disney's estimate of 160 million.
shareWow, I know that studios like to lowball their movies, but 160m? Thats 60m below TLJ which was already a big drop from TFA.
shareI think Disney sees the writing on the wall. Of course, they are HOPING it opens higher but they are spooked.
shareIt's always been my contention that TROS would be lucky to get anywhere close to TLJ and it appears that will be the case. A 200+million OW appears to be off the table but it should open right around Disney's estimate of 160 million.
^^
I see this as a big problem for you Queen?
unfortunately you didnt think "Think ahead" and forgot to troll on Jurassic World 2....
Had you trolled on JW2 when it dropped from 208 to a sub 150 Million Opening, Had you claimed The JW franchise was in trouble after such a huge drop....Then I think you could have clearly made the case a 160 Million OW for SW would be awful....
buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut....You just didnt think ahead...instead I'm pretty sure you defended JW2s huge drop and no point declared the franchise was in trouble after such a huge drop....
In conclusion, This is a big problem for you...as I'm sure you are going to want to give in to your deep hatred for Disney and claim a 160 Million OW is awful and a huge drop....unfortunately due to you inability to "Think ahead",,,you pretty much killed any chance of making these claims by not Trolling on JW2...
PS....If SW tops 1 Billion +....could you refresh my memory, would that be Disney 8th film this year to top 1 Billion +?
would that put Disney having Literally 8 or the 9 highest grossing films of 2019?
in other Words....as someone who hates Disney with a burning passion as you do...judging on a scale from 1 to 10....Just how Painful has this year been for you?
do you feel like you are literally Living IN HELL where Satan personally hates you and has decided to Punish you worse than all other residents?
A drop for a sequel to the first film in a series is par for the course. Especially trilogies. The only trilogy of the last 20 years that I can think of where the third film opened lower than the second is X-men:Apocalypse. Bad omens indeed.
shareThe only trilogy of the last 20 years that I can think of where the third film opened lower than the second is X-men:Apocalypse
^^^
I must admit I'm not entirely sure I'm understanding this correctly, I'm either completely misunderstanding what your saying or you just said something that doesnt even remotely make sense...
I can think of Dozens of 3rd films in trilogies that opened lower than the 2nd in the last 20 years, Hell I can name 6 in the last 3 years
But also I dont think you can consider The X-Men A Trilogy since there are 4 films with the "Younger class"
But here are some-
Annabelle 3 just opened lower than Annabelle 2
Angel Has Fallen Just Opened Lower than London Has Fallen
Fifty Shades Freed opened Lower than Fifty Shades Darker
The Maze Runner 3 Opened Lower than MR2
Despicable Me opened lower than Despicable Me 2
War for the Planet of the Apes opened lower than Dawn
Its quite normal for the 3rd film in a series to make less than the second...In fact, its rare when the a 3rd film Makes MORE than the 2nd, Its happens but not often, Marvel Studios is basically the Masters of This...
Astonishingly somehow they've done the impossible where every sequel they've made has made more than its predecessor except for the long exception of Age of Ultron, which was then Followed by 2 sequels that righted the wrong....
Bottom Line While I have no doubt SW Will have a drop from TLJ....If the tracking is even close and TROS gets close to 170 to 180 M....Thats Incredible for a 3rd film in a series, and a HOME RUN for the SW franchise after The colossal Miss of SOLO
If you Look at the History of The films that have Opened remotely close to TFA and TLJ...basically anything over 200 Million and 1.3 Billion +....
History shows a big drop is coming(again Marvel Studios is the LONE exception)
Furious 7 topped 1.5 Billion + and Its sequel dropped huge to 1.235 B
Jurassic World topped 1.6 Billion+ and Its Sequel dropped huge to 1.3 B
Avengers topped 1.5 Billion + and its sequel dropped to 1.4 Billion
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 topped 1.3 B,The next film in the series Fantastic Beasts dropped HUGE to 814 M(obviously this is not a great example as its not a direct sequel)
The Force Awaken hits 2 Billion Its Sequel drops HUGE to 1.3 Billion +
Pretty much anything that Has Numbers like SW sees Huge drops....
Based on what the tracking says, TROS is heading toward a 170 M+ OW and an easy 1 Billion + total
I do not see how that could be seen as anything but a home run and actually coming in BETTER than could be expected based on basically ALL DATA ...
Obviously its very early, I havent been keeping track too much on box office lately so I dont feel confident really predicting TROS...
but given the reported 40 Million dollar Thursday preview numbers, It seems TROS is very strong
Obviously if TROS came in somewhere below 150 Million and failed to top 1 Billion, there could be no other conclusion than it Under performed and The franchise is in a drastic downward dive....but based on the numbers reported so far, It seems to be Holding up Better than Most all the other films its "territory" and definitely holding up incredibly well for the 3rd film in a series
Final: $500m dom, $1500m WW.
https://moviechat.org/tt2527338/Star-Wars-The-Rise-of-Skywalker/5dfc61a882f2821f90dbb2ce/Box-Office-projections
I was predicting $1500 WW as well, but it was contingent on okay and "lukewarm" reviews. Now I'm not so sure.
sharei'm going to go on the high end of the estimated ranges that are out there, and say it'll come in at 195m.
despite all the ululating over disney destroying our collective childhoods, i suspect people will still turn out for this thing, and the reasonably solid post-track numbers mentioned in deadline's article suggest the film won't do a bvs-style collapse over the weekend.
for whatever it's worth, even though i'm not really all that interested in it, i spontaneously bought a ticket for a 4:30 showing today about an hour ago. an aisle seat was available, & i figured i might as well try to see it with the fan-boys on an opening day, even if i have pretty much zero investment in the whole enterprise at this point.
Enjoy. The movie's a blast!
shareHoly fucking shit. 30 God damned minutes of ads and previews. Why did I pay for this garbage?
edit 3+ hrs later.
sorry for that outburst. i let my emotions get the better of me. though i have to say, i have never sat through so many ads/previews. criminy.
anyway, i didn't like the movie too much, i guess. some things to enjoy in it, certainly. some genuinely exciting action moments, some great visuals. and oscar isaac finally got a chance to shine. he's funny & charismatic, a genuine star.
but the film is indeed a bit of a mess. cluttered, overstuffed, and, at least for me, really a bit dull and uninvolving. a bit of a shame in my books.
news articles state that it isn't doing well in China - it is 4th behind 3 Chinese films.
The truth is, it would be difficult to get as many peeps to watch this film, given just how many were disappointed with the last one and that disappointment was felt throughout the world, despite paid raving reviews from critics.
You can't really factor in China, its never really been a market for Star Wars because when the original trilogy came out, i'm pretty sure only pirated movies were shown and not in their native tongue.
Star Wars has never been the phenomenon in China it has been in the West.
Unlike Japan, where the cinema audiences treated the ending of ANH with stony silence.
Lucasfilm reps were worried, until they were told that for a Japanese audience to greet the ending of a film with silence means that they LOVE IT.
Not possible to predict markets! If people could they'd be billionaires.
share