Oscar chance?

Personally I flat-out adored the film and wouldn't be surprised if it was still my favourite movie of the year by the end of 2013. After it was so well-received at Cannes I had high hopes for its Oscar prospects. But, now that I've seen it, I'm sceptical that Oscar's really going to dig it.

It's not the kind of movie that is suited for the viewers who want to be spoon-fed: all the characters and their actions are a bit ambiguous. It's the kind of film where what isn't told is somehow more important than what is. I think it's going to be even less accessible than "Amour" to the majority of people: at least the theme of that movie was easier to guess by looking at the title only. In some ways this is more similar to "The Master", a film the Academy didn't really get into, arguably because of the very evasive nature of the characters. And let's say it, it would be very optimistic to think that "Amour"'s recent triumph automatically means that, from now on, an authorial foreign-language movie will make its way into several major categories every year (especially since Academy rules have changed again).

Now, Best Foreign Language Film looks like the safest bet. With Kechiche out the way ("Blue is the Warmest Colour" will be ineligible for the award because of its October release), France could very well submit this, even if the Director is not French. Or maybe not. They could choose something way more accessible. Think of last year when they submitted "Les Untouchables". Think of the year when "3 hommes et un couffin" was nominated. Remember "Préparez vos Mouchoirs" with Depardieu and Dewaere? It won. On the other hand it could be Iran to submit the movie like they did with "A Separation", but they could choose not to do it because it was shot in France with a (mostly) French cast. Anyway, if one of the two countries submit it, I'm pretty sure it will be nominated and.. well, if the rules were the same as last year, I would have called it be a shoo-in for the win. But alas, FLF is no longer the most serious of the Oscar categories as it now works like all the others: people can vote for the winners without the need to prove they attended an official screening for all the nominated movies. So.. it's tricky.

To be nominated in the other major categories, maybe it will need a lot of BAFTA love. Will it get it? The British didn't nominate Farhadi for the script of "A Separation" last year and they were also the only ones to give FLF to a different movie (La piel que habito? Really, BAFTA?). So, it's tricky again.

I think Bérénice could do it. If there's going to be an European contender this year, she appears to be the only plausible pick. I doubt that a sleeper contender from Venice could steal her thunder (to go all the way, an European film seems to need a Cannes or Berlin premiere, so that it can slowly build its momentum) and I can't imagine any other already seen foreign-language performance making it to the end. Bérénice is a previous nominee, her performance is stunning and I doubt that any of the English-language contenders has an equally interesting role. Seriously, all these Grace Kelly/Princess Diana/Walt Disney biopics waiting on the horizon look like time bombs ready to explode. The only person I'm sure will make it to the very end is Meryl Streep, who has a very meaty part in "August:Osage County". Seriously, people, consider only 4 slots in the Best Actress category. As you should do every year Meryl is in the running. Also, this shouldn't add anything to the conversation if we lived in an ideal world, but since we don't, I must add that I'm confident that BB's looks will certainly help her cause. Because everyone likes to look at a beautiful woman on the red carpet, right? One problem is: her character is the emotional core of the film, but she doesn't really dominate it as much as I was expecting. The final act belongs to Rahim for example. This may hurt her. I'm not saying that it will be easy for her to pull the trick. But she has a chance. She should have won for "The Artist" anyway.

Right now I'm thinking that "Le Passé" will get only a nomination for Foreign Language Film in case it gets submitted. But I hope to be wrong. If all the other contenders Sony Pictures Classics have to offer turn out to be nags and they focus most of their energies on promoting this, everything is possible. We'll see.

lol? it's not even in top 9

Considering that France is submitting "Renoir" for Foreign Language Film instead, I'm afraid I have to second amz91 now. The movie has probably zero chances to win any Oscar. Iran could still submit it, but I seriously doubt that it will happen. Technically they can do it, since Farhadi is one of their citizens, but I've been checking the company productions list on this very site and it seems like the movie has been done entirely with a French capital. So, I doubt Iran will submit a movie where they weren't involved at all.

I doubt it will get any nom either. Bérénice gave a performance of exquisite sensitivity and the best I've seen from any actress this year so far, but I think it's too subtle for many Academy members to truly appreciate. She will also be damaged by the fact that Sony Pictures Classics already has Cate Blanchett, who seems poised to win the whole thing. Of course Blanchett is such a big Hollywood insider and already has such strong support from the critics and her colleagues that Sony doesn't really have to push her so hard as a less known contender and they could save some of their energies to back someone else. But really, I wouldn't be surprised if they also gave higher priority to Julie Delpy for "Before Midnight". "Le Passé" didn't really seem to take full flight after Toronto. The reviews were solid overall, some called the acting stellar, but there were some that said precisely the kind of things that I had predicted them to say: that the characters were too mysterious to involve the audience etc.. Some people also ludicrously called Farhadi misogynist. So I think that Actress and Original Screenplay are very long shots now.

It's a pity that this splendid film won't even be able to get any kind of recognition at the European Film Awards because the director isn't European.
But I think that it should do very well at the Césars at least. I think Asghar has a strong chance to win Best Director there (this category is very open to non-French talent). I doubt Bérénice will win a second Best Actress award so soon, it will probably be Adèle Exarchopoulos from "Blue is the Warmest Colour" (unless she only gets a Best Newcomer award like the very much acclaimed Matthias Schoenaerts did last year).

Golden Globe and BAFTA nominations for Foreign Language Film are also a strong possibility.

That page was last updated on the 13th April. How do they know if it is the movie that is going to be submitted? Although, if they do, the nom would probably be in the bag.

Oh, the last page says 29 September, so it's true. Major yeah! As I said, at least one nom should be in the bag. This will give even more visibility to the movie and maybe boost its chances to receive noms in other categories, who knows?

I'm also confident that "The Hunt" and "Wadjda" are going to lead the pack. "Le Passé" is in a very solid position too, I think. It was very well-received, the Academy is very much familiar with the talent involved (winner of the 2011 Oscar for Foreign Language Film directs French Oscar nominee) and this is a category that tends to spread love all around the world. It's always been a very political one .. and now that people will be able to pick up the winner without having to attend an official screening for all 5 nominees, it promises to become even more so... but I'm digressing. What the other two could be?

I think that nominating "The Past" will be considered a way to recognize both Iranian and French cinema and "Renoir", the French entry, will miss. I believe a similar reasoning might have caused "Les Intouchables" to surprisingly miss the nom last year (there was already "Amour" that was an Austria/France/Germany co-production). Also, if it happened to a box office hit like "Les Int.", I doubt that the little-known Renoir stands a chance. Personally I'm very happy that France picked it, since it will give the movie more visibility and make more people familiar with the immense Michel Bouquet (one of my faves), but I don't think it was a very smart tactical move. I think the same reasoning eliminated "Gri-Gris" (which, in addition to this, was also poorly received) from the game.

Will there be an another entry for Europe? Last year we got three. Could it be "The Great Beauty" because of Sorrentino's status as an universally admired filmmaker (and he has worked in Hollywood already)? Orphans of "La Dolce Vita" could bite, but, all in all, I don't quite see the movie as the Academy's cup of tea (too inaccessible and too much of an "auteur"'s exercise in virtuosity). Could it be "Two Lives" from Germany? The legendary Liv Ullmann and the also well-known Juliane Köhler are in the cast. A nom would bode well for both Germany and Norway. I haven't seen the film yet, so I don't have an opinion on it.

But I think it will be likelier that Oscar will pick up movies from two different areas. We've often seen nominees from the Spanish-speaking world as of lately, so I think "Gloria" has a strong chance. I also have the impression that the movie's female lead, Paulina García, is currently the actor with the biggest chance to be nommed for a foreign-language performance this year. She won the Silver Bear at Berlin, she has that kind of "it's-now-or-never" vibe around her and there wasn't a nominee from a Spanish-language performance last year (unlike 2010 and 2011). On the other hand, they went French for two consecutive years (Jean+ Bérénice in 2011 and Emmanuelle in 2012), so I don't think we'll see the Kechiche girls of the return of Bérénice just yet. Their movies have also other cons, "Blue" in particular. So, yeah, whether Paulina's performance will be nominated or not, it helped directing much focus on the movie.

For the final nominee, I think it will be a country that gravitates around the Hollywood area a bit more, like Australia or Canada. Since a nom for "Gabrielle" would mean going Canadian 4 times in a row, I think it will probably be "The Rocket" this time.

So I'm currently predicting:

1.Wadjda
2.The Hunt
3.Le Passé
4.Gloria
5.The Rocket

We'll see how this shapes up in the next weeks.

It was submitted by Iran, but it's already been eliminated in the penultimate nominating round, so it won't represent any country.

I think it's between "Jagten" and "The Great Beauty" now. I would have never imagined that all these people would have warmed up to the latter so much. It was truly adored all around the globe. It would be a rare case of voters choosing artistic value as opposed to social messages. I mean, it's not like the movie is depthless or without meanings, but the aspects that are usually mentioned and have won people over are its sumptous direction and visual magnificence rather than its themes. "The Broken Circle Breakdown" could be a dark horse. As far as the other two are concerned, it's probably between "The Grandmaster" (just because it's the Weinstein Company..), "Omar" (it will probably replace "Wadjda"- socially themed entry from Western Asia) and "The Notebook" (SPC will now put more muscle behind this/Holocaust film). I'm thinking the first 5 right now.