85th early Oscar predictions
Here are my predictions for the big eight categories, with the actual nominations only a few weeks away. I will not predict winners until the actual nominations come up, in the strong event that I am wrong. I will also put alternates in some categories, and explanations as to why they are out as of now.
Best Picture (for the sake of argument, there are 10):
1. Amour
2. Argo
3. Django Unchained
4. Les Miserables
5. Life of Pi
6. Lincoln
7. The Master
8. The Sessions
9. Silver Linings Playbook
10. Zero Dark Thirty
Alternates: Moonrise Kingdom (too early release); Skyfall (little love for Bond films); Brave (not as good as they thought); The Dark Knight Rises (same as Skyfall); Hyde Park on Hudson (too uneven, and too close to The King's Speech).
Best Director
1. Ben Affleck - Argo
2. Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained
3. Tom Hooper - Les Miserables
4. Ang Lee - Life of Pi
5. Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Alternates: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook (too controversial from his past films); Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master (a little polarizing); Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty (too close to The Hurt Locker); Michael Haneke, Amour (history is not on the side of foreign-language films). It could be that Bigelow sneaks in over Hooper, and right now, I have it close to a coin flip.
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
2. Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
3. Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
4. Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
5. Denzel Washington - Flight
Alternates: John Hawkes, The Sessions (coin flip between him and Bradley Cooper, but the big thing is that if you're going to do a disability movie, let it be one where you can overcome it as much as possible; plus, stranger things have happened); Richard Gere, Arbitrage (lack of big-name distribution); Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson (too close to The King's Speech, which is still divisive among critics and audiences).
Best Actress
1. Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
2. Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
3. Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
4. Meryl Streep - Hope Springs
5. Naomi Watts - The Impossible
Alternates: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (foreign-language bias, age, and Marion Cotillard's nomination); Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson (misleading trailer, so her part is not as big as expected); Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea (too much time has passed from the original release date, and a string of recent failures for her); Helen Mirren, Hitchcock (too similar to the HBO film). Also, even if the movie itself is poor, Meryl Streep's probably getting a nomination anyway.
Best Supporting Actor
1. Alan Arkin - Argo
2. Javier Bardem - Skyfall
3. Leonardo di Caprio - Django Unchained
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
5. Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Alternates: Robert de Niro, Silver Linings Playbook (quite honestly, he almost made it, but I have it as a coin flip with Bardem, because I'd like to see a Bond movie get some recognition for once, and Bardem has a tendency to come from behind in these things); Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild (not a professional actor, and it was disqualified at SAG); Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained (Leo's role is flashier); Bruce Willis, Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson is divisive amongst critics, Willis is more of a "movie star" than an actor, and too early of a release date).
Best Supporting Actress
1. Amy Adams - The Master
2. Sally Field - Lincoln
3. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
4. Helen Hunt - The Sessions
5. Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy
Alternates: Samantha Barks, Les Miserables (two reasons: Nicole Kidman came out of nowhere, and Helen Hunt was relegated from Best Actress); Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook (no film since 1981 has been nominated in all four acting categories); Frances McDormand, Moonrise Kingdom (likely cancels herself out with votes from Promised Land, and the early release date, and may also split votes with Kara Hayward).
Best Original Screenplay
1. Michael Haneke - Amour
2. Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained
3. Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
4. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola - Moonrise Kingdom
5. Mark Boal - Zero Dark Thirty
Alternates: Brenda Chapman and Irene Mecchi, Brave (not as successful as it was supposed to be); Nicholas Jarecki, Arbitrage (nobody knew about this film until the Golden Globes); Olivier Nakache and Eric Toledano, The Intouchables (usually only room for one foreign-language film, and is a little uneven); Martin McDonagh, Seven Psychopaths (audiences didn't like it, and McDonagh isn't a big enough name yet).
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Tom Stoppard - Anna Karenina
2. Chris Terrio - Argo
3. David Magee - Life of Pi
4. Tony Kushner - Lincoln
5. David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Alternates: Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild (SAG ineligibility killed any momentum); Christopher Nolan and Jonathan Nolan, The Dark Knight Rises (not a lot of love for superhero movies, plus The Dark Knight was better); William Nicholson, Les Miserables (it's easier to adapt a musical book than a novel, and history hasn't been kind to musicals); Ben Lewin, The Sessions (fading momentum); Neal Purvis, Robert Wade, and John Logan, Skyfall (as mentioned, not a lot of love for Bond films).
For now, I will avoid doing the other categories, due to lack of promotion and knowledge on my part.
Snoopy is one cool cat...although he's a dog.