Possible best documentary?

I know that its a longshot, being an independent film in every true sense of the word (ie, completely funded by the public), but does anyone have a an idea of this movies chances of being nominated for best documentary? I don't know how the nomination process works, but I think if it recieves good reviews from high profile critics, it will become more than a cult movie and stand a chance.

I'm not sure if there have been any other truly independent movies that have been nominated, or even became more than a blip on the public radar, especially a documentary. Possibly Blair Witch or American Movie(title?)?

Love's turned to lust and blood's turned to dust in my heart.