You're pulling data from two different threads. I'm trying to point out that this is all guesswork, and there are many numbers and formulas that can be used to make those guesses. When all is said and done, as I've pointed out many times, we just don't know. The studios don't make the information public. My personal belief, which is-- again, as I have stressed many times-- just a hunch is that the studios exaggerate certain numbers to add to the spectacle of the film. What is more likely to draw an audience? "This film cost us $112 million to make" or "a $200 million extravaganza!"? And it goes without saying, that when tax time comes, they are going to write off every imaginable expense, and exaggerate every imaginable production cost.
So yes, depending on what data and formulas you use, the estimated profits are going to be different.
Beyond all of that, there are so many costs and revenue points that come with films, that no one can ever truly know the final net profit or loss, expect, maybe, the studio's accountant, and even he may not know everything.
More than anything else, I look to the behavior of the studios to tell me how the films are performing. If Disney is putting out 3 or 4 MCU films per year, and spending feature motion picture level money on MCU television shows, it suggests to me that the films and shows are making a lot of money. They'd be retrenching and rebranding otherwise. When I see other studios abandoning their franchises, rebooting and recasting them, it suggests to me that those films have been failures, and the studio has decided to go in a new direction.
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Bubbathegut (17215)
a year ago
Its the same thread, but you already knew that.
So you went from an expert to guessing now? If we are going to play this game of guessing movie numbers at least put some effort into it.
I know its all guesswork which why I use the 2.5 multiplier to find a movies breakeven. Not that it matters anyways, studios only make movies these days if they think they can make money and sell toys. They could care less about the quality of the movie.
Have you seen the upcoming movies for 2023? Its pathetic. 5 comic book movies and another Transformers. I am hoping Nolan redeems himself with Oppenheimer. That might be the only interesting movie next year. Except for John Wick, you know that will be epic.
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FilmBuff (6652)
a year ago
I went from guesser to guesser. I've never claimed any expertise. I use the data I find online, and I spell it out as I share it. In different replies I often work with the numbers or formulas from someone with whom I'm interacting, hence the different results based on different data.
I haven't seen what's coming out. Besides the MCU films, which seem to consistently buck the trend of blockbusters being mindless CGI-filled fluff, I tend not to be interested in the "big" movies. For the most part I like the random, smaller indie films, though the vast majority of what I watch are very, very old films.
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Bubbathegut (17215)
a year ago
Oh my, you just keep digging dont you? Now its multiple sources with multiple people? Just a month ago you were an expert now you are just guessing.
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FilmBuff (6652)
a year ago
I've never once claimed any expertise. You are either confusing me with someone else, or pulling that out of your ass.
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Bubbathegut (17215)
a year ago
So now you are not an expert? What happened to the 60, 40 25? Of course you think I am confusing you with someone else. lol Dude if you are going to troll at least do it with some conviction.
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FilmBuff (6652)
a year ago
No, I'm still not an expert, nor have I ever claimed to be, or even insinuated that I might be. I even said at the time that a Google search told me that studios typically keep 55% of the domestic box office receipts, though for films expected to be blockbusters they sometimes negotiate to keep 60-65% of the receipts from the first few weeks. Same Google search said they normally get about 40% of the international box office, except in China, where the get only 25%.
I swear, they need a separate board for you, Queen, Marty, and the rest of you.
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MartyDeniro (4040)
a year ago
You need different screen names for all your fluctuating takes on cost/revenue. Harder to point to your blatant inconsistency that way. Harder to point to your blatant bias towards a particular franchise.
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MartyDeniro (4040)
a year ago
Strangely, when I put up reported promo costs (with links from the trades) for some lower performing Marvel movies, he didn't "work with the numbers or formulas from someone with whom I'm interacting" at all. They were all rejected with complete certainty and conviction that were inflated. He used "accepted" numbers instead, that he could never quite provide a source for.
But it's obvious he morphs into what he needs to be to achieve a two-fold goal.
1-Make Marvel movies seem less costly, so they look better.
2-Make high-flying non-Marvel movies seem more costly, so they look worse.
All while claiming no bias.
Like Top Gun 2 before it (which he dubbed a "fake hit"), Avatar 2 has just sucked all the oxygen out of the box office room. Those two will be the story of '22, rather than any of the 3 major Marvel releases. And that's what irritates him enough to begin his weird book cooking.
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