MovieChat Forums > Margin Call (2011) Discussion > Problems- From a Finance Student

Problems- From a Finance Student


So when I originally heard about this movie I was excited as I heard that IT WAS NOT POLITICAL. I was excited to see a movie on this subject that didn't have an agenda, that actually knew what it was talking about.

Now for the most part I enjoyed this movie. I thought it was superbly acted. The casting was great. The cinematography was wonderful.

The one big GLARING flaw. The one(there's a few other less obvious ones) thing that made me have to take this movie so much less seriously was this - They really wanted to show that the guys AT THE TOP were incompetent when it came to the actual business of trading. I don't want to watch through the movie and pick out the lines verbatim but there are at least 3, probably more, scenes where Will, Sam , and John either outright say that they don't understand or suggest it by saying something like " just speak plainly" or something to that effect. This is just so laughably ridiculous. The HEADS of a trading floor are going to understand the business, and probably better than anyone else..... It's no different than any other industry. Does the HEAD engineer understand engineering ? Does the head accountant understand accounting? Do the partners at a law firm know how to practice law?

In the finance business there is a designation called the CFA ( chartered financial analyst ). This is a brutally hard designation to achieve that require 4 years of graduate study. Failure rates exceed 40%. People in Will or Sam's position would most likely have this designation. And they certainly aren't going to have trouble understanding the models or reading the charts.......This one point to me gave away the writers slant and made them look like utter fools in this regard.

That is all.

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I tend to agree with some of the points you make (Finance Student) but only in part. I also do think there are definitely a few 'flaws' in the movie and its depiction of the Street.

I, too, found it a bit absurd that Will and Sam didn't really (or at minimum, seemingly) understand the risk management reporting, VaR and deltas of their book. Will was a senior trader managing a large daily pad--he was buying and selling risk all day. Sam was head of the entire desk (they never really specified if it was Mortgages, Structured Products -- but in any case, a managing director senior to Sam -- and should be a part of risk management meetings, understanding desk p&l, etc. I think one thing they kind of glossed over (among many) is that they didn't separate out distinct roles for sales vs. trading on a desk...). This was kind of irksome when Will goes direct w/ the Street trying to unwind his book rather than using the broker market and/or having sales people push accounts (HFs, asset managers, etc). Minor technical detail but a bit irksome.

I actually do think Jared Cohen (Simon Baker) and certainly Tuld (J. Irons) not knowing is reasonable to a degree. Actually, Jeremy Iron's line about explaining it to him like a child and that how he got to where he was was probably one of the better lines and sharp moments in the movie, IMO. Also, Tuld very easily could have risen to the ranks from IBD or even if s&t could have been equities, etc....A lot of guys in other products, but especially more traditional markets like equities or futures might not understand structured correlation desks and tranched risk.

I also think it is unlikely that Sam/Will had a CFA and even if they did it is largely irrelevant to the problems they face. CFA is more common for equity research analysts and not as common on sales/trading desks. Its focus on accounting, financial statements and asset management is much more so than on risk on a mortgage book or hedging delta, gamma/convexity exposure, etc. Also, you can actually get it in <2 years if you run the table Dec, June, June cycle.

Good luck in your 'studies'...

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Good point about Jared and Tuld coming from a different background.

And yes the CFA can be done in 2 years. From what I have heard and read though I think that is pretty uncommon. Average duration is 4.

You obviously have a stronger background in this than I do. I guess by the tone of my post that perhaps your snide approach was warranted..... I never claimed to be an authority on this subject, just to offer a little perspective.

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sorry did not mean to sound snide...i type from an ipad which is annoying so i might have typo errors or be brash.

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Traders may be CFAs but its probably less than 40% have this designation. The CFA is more common among research analysts and asset managers.

The senior guys are sharp and know how to run the business, they know the forest but over time it becomes inefficient for them to know the trees. In other words they can read a presentation, but not necessarily navigae the latest software showing some risk model, that is what the juniors "who work longer hours" are for. This is realistic, notice how when the presentation was printed up, the exec committee was very on the ball.

CEOs like to play dumb, and they are social they are not going to sit there and read a presentation when they can talk to you. Plus he wasn't showing his full hand, notice that he knew exactly what was going on without opening the presentation, and was asking leading questions. Also he most likely, already had inside information which is why he was so forceful in his decision.

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The 40% OP was referring to was pass-rate for Level 1 which it is close to (and/or overall) for CFA not the amount who have it.
Also, not 40% of ANY sector/division of the Street has CFA including equity research and on the desk it will be less than 10%. As popular as the designation has become (especially abroad in EMs) it is still a relatively small cadre of financial professionals who have it (or necessarily need it) and even when it is most common/useful in equity research it is far less than 40% having it even in the bulge brackets. But thanks for repeating what I had stated about research analysts and asset managers.

The 'inside' information to which I think you refer regarding the CEO is poor reading of the situation IMO. The CEO understood the market was moving against the bubble and the music had stopped playing, but this has nothing to do with inside info...but rather shedding risk now would be better than trying to string the positions along. He chose to rip the band-aid off completely rather than a slow peel. Maybe you mean inside knowledge (or better knowledge) of markets past but it has nothing to do with inside information.

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"they know the forest but over time it becomes inefficient for them to know the trees."

Excellent line my friend :)

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I think you have it right.

The fact that they once knew the details doesn't mean they retain that knowledge in detail after they are forced to spend years focusing on higher-level concerns, which have details of their own. Your attention shifts, as does your focus on what's important. You rely a lot on people below you to brief you about the things they are experts in.

I don't think it was a flaw in the movie -- I think it was consciously trying to portray the fact that executives lose familiarity with the inner details of what they're managing and come to depend on people below them to succinctly summarize the details of their lower-level work.

None of these executives were static paper cut-outs. Their surface ignorance did transform into intelligent action over the course of the movie and as they gained more information. They appeared confused at first but picked up the ball quickly, and in that I think it's quite fair. It's one of the things I appreciated most about the movie.

The point is that you need vigilance to guard againt the problems in the movie, and you rely on a shared understanding of what's important and what needs attention. If one person in the chain falls down on the job, it can have severe consequences. If many people do, you have a problem. And you need it more than ever when complex computers are on the back end of your analysis.

Seriously, I thought this was a great movie. Far better at presenting a realistic picture of things than something like the Wall Street movies. If it's critical of anything, it's of a complex system that is so highly-dependent on people getting their job right the vast majority of the time, and so prone to serious failure with widespread impact if they don't.

It's tone was for more about "these are the risks of the way the system is set up" than "these are bad people". Less gratifying for the audience, maybe, but far more informative and useful.

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the writers were not fools at all... having been and known a number of people like Sam and Will, I can tell you that they definitely know the forest better than the trees, typically do not have CFAs, their analysts are continually creating new reporting mechanisms utilizing new technologies that present the info in new visual ways...

As the analytical techniques are developed you have programmatic creep... the tools are developed by CFAs that used to be rocket scientists... they poor over them for days week and months, slowly morph them, then present them to management who understand the business in a big way, but have never looked at these new tools before and have to be led in.

From my experience I found the movie to be spot on.... Will and Sam were highly effective management that understood the biz, certainly better than the analysts, but were presented with new ways of looking at the biz that were not easily digestible....

I remember having the same exact thoughts as you when I was in grad school... and I ended up be continually surprised by the management savvy of people who couldn't keep up with the reporting I was showing them... then I got enough experience to be one of them and it all made sense..

The movie was spot on, don't underestimate these guys when you get out there, and good luck in your career....

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I work in the financial field and I can tell you this: the people at the top now exactly WHAT they're selling, but have a limited knowledge of HOW it works. The problem is that they might have graduated in the field, but the products keep changing and a couple of crash courses will not fix what you lack in hands on experience (which the people on the workfloor do have).

This chick Marla Singer did NOT have testicular cancer.

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This is not at all a glaring flaw. All the exotic debt instruments, CDOS, MBS's etc, are incredibly difficult to understand. At the first big financial briefing at the time of the Lehman collapse when this film is set, Ben Bernanke himself asked the same questions as John Fuld asked in the film. Not one of the big snouts in the trough knew.

The whole derivatives market is constructed in such a way as to be all but incomprehensible. If it was easy no one would have undertaken the risks - don't forget they were talking about a potential exposure of $8 trillion. And at the moment the figures are so huge that although nobody can put a precise value on the potential debt it is considered that it could be anything up to $150 trillion, or in other words many times more than the global economy for many years.

It is absolutely not a question of the heads of these institutions being incompetent. They may be many things, but stupid is not one of them. You don't need to know the intricacies of computer engineering to use one.

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I'm writing from a slightly different perspective and probably thus a different opinion. I have an MBA from one of the best business schools in the world (once #1 on WSJ rankings) and have a designation in insurance. I worked in insurance for 10+ years, but also in many other fields. First, in MY experience, the people at the worker bee level are the ones who know what's going on, as in the movie. As you go up the ranks of management, the level of ignorance increases exponentially. Managers make decisions based on whims, misinformation, and sexual attraction. Very rarely does objective goal-oriented decision-making rear its ugly head. If you recall 2007-08, that was exactly the problem: the largest banks in the world were betting their very existence on products they didn't understand. Do you REALLY think they would have bought this stuff if they really understood what it was??? No way. They were clueless. Secondly, the Demi Moore character had it just right—she pointed out the risks and problems in meetings and was ignored. This has happened to me too often to count. Management doesn't want to hear the truth, they want subordinates to carry out their crazy half-baked ideas. And of course in the end, Demi was blamed, as non-team players usually are, regardless of whether they were right or not. I personally believe that in each of these banks there were meetings where some brave soul put up his/her hand and said, "Wait a minute. This is a crappy investment. If things head south, we're totally screwed." But they were ignored and probably fired. Just like 9/11 or the Benie Madoff mess. The lower ranks in the FBI and SEC were clamoring for permission to investigate, and it was the bureaucratic upper management that ignored or stopped them. It wasn't that NO ONE knew what was going on. A lot of people knew. It's just that no one in power bothered to listen. A third point is the ethical dilemmas posed to various characters at various stages. A constant in my entire working life, from high school teaching through dealing with companies worth almost a billion dollars, is the compromises you have to make with your own sense of right and wrong. You're constantly calculating how much it takes for you to sell out. Do you inform on a colleague who is cheating? What if your company refuses to re-call a vaccine they know is ineffective? What if your company is actively de-frauding customers? I've been in all these situations, and a lot more. If standing on principal causes almost four years of unemployment, you can bet the next time you are faced with an ethical decision the bar is a lot lower. And for most people, there is no bar at all. Anything goes. Thus our current situation.

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Managers make decisions based on whims, misinformation, and sexual attraction

LOL.
I scented a sense of Demi and Simon Baker had a "past"....being similar age group....similar high level management positions etc.

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A few more comments the next day...twenty years ago I dealt with the insolvencies of life & health insurance companies. Insurance companies, by state law, are required to hold certain classes of assets as reserves. A company in Louisiana (I can't remember the name offhand) held, as part of its assets, buildings owned by members of its board (this is illegal in itself). The real problem, however, was the inflated value of the buildings. The board members simply sold the building multiple times among themselves at increasing prices ($1 million, $5 million, $10 million, etc.) until the insurance company bought it for even more (so in other words, the "real" cost of the building might have been $1 millon, but the insurance company eventually bought it for $20 million). So the directors all got rich and the company eventually became insolvent because of their greed. All illegal. Do you honestly think that NO ONE in that company noticed what was going on? Sure they did.

Another company is really my favorite. Guaranty Security Trust, in Jacksonville Fla. Two stockbrokers from Louisville KY, of all places, bought the company (using credit, naturally), and immediately put what must have been a pre-conceived plan into action. Too many details to go into here. You can look it up! But part of it was using junk bonds as assets (illegal...) which they got around by having Merrill Lynch buy the junk bonds back in December (when the required statements were created) and sell them back to them at a pre-determined price (illegal, of course) in Jan. You might say to yourself, "Where were the auditors?" In the company's back pocket, that's where. Coopers & Lybrand. When they objected to the illegal transaction, the company threatened to get a different auditor. The Coopers partner played ball and approved the transactions. Later the national Coopers firm disavowed the partner in Jacksonville. But that's not how it works...you can't simply disown a partner as a rogue player. Another nifty touch with Guaranty Security Trust was that they owned several companies outright--Chautauqua Airlines, Spinning Jenny clothing stores, a plastics company in Pittsburgh...and my personal favorite, a chain of strip clubs in Florida. All illegal. They weren't allowed to own companies. How did they do it? Easy. For the Spinning Jenny, for example, the guys brought in the skipper of their private yacht in the Caribbean and sold him the company for $1...of course including a clause that they could buy it back anytime they wanted for $1. Then the insurance company they controlled made loans to Spinning Jenny (the loans = pocket money for the guys...) that they counted as assets on the insurance company's books. Really creative. Capitalism at its best.

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Good grief this conversation has gotten out of hand.

To the person who mentioned Bernanke -- he's a central banker. He executes monetary policy and while he did not catch all the signals early and did not fully understand the entire securitization machine, that is not indicative of those that work at the banks or with the products daily.

I think at the end it is easy to forget the underlying trigger that truly caused panic: that real estate prices finally stopped appreciating. I have no doubt the bubble would have continued should prices have kept rising....

To the person who went to IESE or INSEAD or the like (note to all: anytime someone qualifies one of the 'world's best biz schools' you can rest assured they're not referring to Harvard, Wharton, Chicago, Stanford and the other American elites) -- thank you for your detail career history in the insurance biz, in some cases just quite irrelevant to this topic.

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Getting back to the original topic. I will be quick. I'm a CPA, I have a masters in accounting, and a bachelors in economics and finance. This stuff ain't Greek to me, but it is to most people.

That is the whole point of the 'explain it like I'm 10 years old' lines in the movie. They took a little bit of dramatic license because they wanted the majority of the audience to understand what was going on, as well. Not just the CPAs and CFAs.

We in the financial services industries have our little languages, in part, so that people will have a reason to pay us. That's all well and good, but it doesn't work in the context of a drama. If the script were loaded with with references to, say, tranches and credit default swaps you would lose the audience in less than five minutes.

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Funny, I have the exact same degree and qualification as you are, but still those graphs sounds greek to me. I dont recall anywhere in my CPA course anything about VAR or advanced stuff they mentioned in the movie.

Only when I was doing my applied finance degree, then I learned about these MSB and else :)

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If you complete any masters degree in any economic field and does not know about basic VAR you should get your money back.

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See 'The Big Short' (Brad Pitt, Christian Bale) - Alan Greenspan is referred to in the film as one of the 'architects' of the crisis - I believe he was a central banker, no?

I remember an old woman saying to me that things were looking good because Greenspan 'would take care of us.' I thought then we were in for a *beep* of trouble. It came along soon enough...

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Are you kidding me here people?

1. Who cares who you are.

2. The film made it pretty clear that the chief knew very well what was going on. They were just playing "golden retrievers".

Seems that finance education doesn't provide ability to concentrate nor brains. Maybe just a knowledge of cool acronyms.

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