MovieChat Forums > Aquaman (2018) Discussion > Tracking for 40 to 60 Million OW

Tracking for 40 to 60 Million OW

posted 5 years ago by billbrown7071 (3193)
14 replies | jump to latest

https://www.comicbookmovie.com/aquaman/aquaman-long-range-tracking-points-to-a-60-million-opening-weekend-in-north-america-a164374

It seems Hype isn't RED HOT going into Aquaman like some has suggested...Cough(Queen)Cough....

Like I and others have said its clear Aquaman being the first DCEU film after The disaster that was Justice League is resulting in The exact opposite of RED HOT Hype and Goodwill....

Then you throw in The year and 1/2 of nothing but Negative News surrounding The DCEU(Or The Officially DEAD DCEU) from BOTH Cavill and Affleck out as B+S, To Suicide Squad 2 being dead, now being Rebooted by James Gunn, To the reports that Wonder Woman 1984 is being delayed because they are reworking the movie to add the "Flashpoint" storyline and have WW go back in time and change the timeline so they can complete reboot the DCEU going forward...

The point is, you either have to be delusional or Trolling to think any of this would lead to RED HOT hype going into Aquaman....

but I must say I didnt even expect Tracking as Low as 40 to 60 Million....

Now heres my personal opinion....

I believe Aquaman will drastically out perform this tracking number....I'm thinking it will open somewhere in the 80 to 95 Million range...

But let me be clear, the reason I believe this, I believe The Film itself Is going build Hype and Anticipation, I believe Aquaman is going to succeed IN SPITE of The DCEU and all the negative news....

I believe once the marketing campaign really kicks in, Audiences Will not see this film as A DCEU film,Its look nothing like Snyder's dark,depressing and colorless shitshows, It has completely different tones, Its actually looks damn near identical to MCU films and seem to have the same story as Black Panther....

I believe Hype will start to build from that, Then I believe the final 2 weeks when reviews hit, Hype Will actually get RED HOT, because I believe Aquaman is actually going to get good reviews...

But most importantly I believe Aquaman is gonna be a hit because of The director James Wan....He has full creative control, WB cant sabotage This movie like they did with BvS.SS and JL....I believe Wan has made a Good movie and The Movie and Quality of The movie is going to be the reason for RED HOT hype and it succeeding...

but its also now clear, that with tracking this low....If By some chance Wan made a bad movie, If Aquaman Is terrible and WB has to hide it and wait until the last possible second to lift the review embargo like they did wth MOS,BvS,SS and JL....then were talking straight FLOP...

its clear Theres not much hype for this movie right now, The only thing thats going to sell this movie and Build Hype is The MOVIE itself...If word get out its great....IMO Its going to exceed expectations....But if This is bad or even Luke warm, this could be a disaster....

To have tracking as low as 40 Million...Means were talking only about 25% of The people that saw BvS are interested in seeing this film...It Means over 50% of the people that saw Justice League arent AS OF RIGHT NOW interested in seeing Aquaman....

This tracking proves The state of The "DEAD" DCEU is almost worse than WB could have imagined...

at this point, NOTHING will help Aquaman except Aquaman....The Baggage of The DCEU has resulted in Declining Box office With each film and now you have shockingly low 40 to 60 Million dollar Tracking for Aquaman....I mean my god Green Lantern Opened to 53 Million, Ant-Man opened to 57 Million, Ghost Rider opened to 45 Million...

were talking a complete lack of interest in Aquaman right now....

Prediction-

If reviews are between 80 to 90%+ on RT
OW-80 to 95 Million
Total domestic-225 to 260 Million
World Wide-600 to 750 Million

If Reviews are bad to decent , like 30 to 55% on RT
OW-40 to 50 Million
Total Domestic-115 to 140 Million
World Wide-375 to 450 M

Hey queen goodluck on your "at least 135 Million + OW and Over 900 Million WW predictions"

[–] Supermanofsteel (204) 5 years ago

I ask myself wehre they got those numbers, if the film gets well received by critics it probably will make more (not saying it will be 100 M like WW but stil it could be close).

And I believe it will be well received by them. BvS, SS and JL never made me hyped. This film however is different though.

[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 5 years ago

I ask myself wehre they got those numbers, if the film gets well received by critics it probably will make more (not saying it will be 100 M like WW but stil it could be close).

^^^
Tracking is very accurate....If there reporting tracking between 40 to 60 Million thats what the data indicates

and Yes I do not think Your Prediction is out of bounds....

I too believe if Aquaman is Very good, It could have a great opening and maybe get close to WW's OW....

But thats kinda the point of These tracking Numbers....Its ALL ON THE QUALITY of the film now....Its ALL ON POSITIVE Reviews....

with Tracking this low, it proves right now theres not much interest....For HYPE to Build...for this film to have any shot at a WW type Opening....Reviews have to be extremely positive and The film itself has to Bring in The Audience...

These numbers indicate theres not going to be A "Suicide Squad" situation where the film opens HUGE despite being awful and getting awful reviews....

It seems The bridge is burnt between audiences and DC/DCEU films.....right now, Aquaman just isnt hitting with audiences....If thats going to change, It Will have to be from Great reviews and The quality of the film

If I remember right, WW was tracking around 60 Million before The excellent reviews hit....WW came after the disasters that were BvS and SS....Audiences werent really too High on Wonder Woman until The reviews hit and they knew WW was a quality film....

Aquaman has a lot of things going for it...The Tone is completely different than all other DCEU films, Its got a Great director...If This movie is good....I do believe is will out perform these tracking numbers....

But EVERYTHING is now on the reviews and Quality....Aquaman is going to flop if It doesnt get good reviews and isnt a very good film....

[–] [deleted] 5 years ago

I may go see this only because I see a lot of movies but the trailer really didn't do much for me. im guessing the projections will be pretty close. With Cavill and Affleck out, wonder what this movie underperforming would mean for the DCEU.

[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 5 years ago

DCEU is DEAD....

I'm not just saying that to be mean....

All future DC films are just DC Films....

Theres nothing remaining from what was The DCEU....

almost all roles are being recast

almost all the movies are being rebooted

ALL the movies are being made with completely different tones

The Lone bright-spot is Wonder Woman and is seems WB has finally found a way to keep her and reboot/KILL the rest of the DCEU....

Wonder Woman was just delayed and its being reported that the reason why its delayed is They are reworking the movie to add The Flashpoint storyline....So WW can go back in time and reset the timeline so they can erase The 4 awful DCEU films from existence...Wonder Woman Will be the only thing left after resetting the timeline....

that why Batman is being rebooted....Thats why WB doesnt mind letting Cavil go, Thats why James Gunn is rebooting Suicide Squad...

Because after WW84, she resets the timeline, the next Batman,Superman and Suicide Squad Will be reboots in the new timeline with different actors...

If Aquaman flops its just going to be one and done and WB moves on with their plan....

If it wildly succeeds, I'm sure they'll work a way in to have Aquaman survive the "Reset" like Wonder Woman and future sequels Will just be stand alone stories....

The DCEU is no more....there is no whats gonna happen?

Its already happened....All future movies are going forward as DC films

WB is not even satisfied with The DCEU just being DEAD....their literally going to erase it from existence....

they feel the baggage and Damage done from 4 of the 5 DCEU films is something you cant come back from or move forward with....

They are doing everything they can to distance themselves from that 5 year disaster, and apparently they feel Not even rebooting,recasting and leaving everything behind is enough, They want to Erase it from existence

[–] Supermanofsteel (204) 5 years ago

I preferred that they didn't use WW84 to reboot the DCEU, more that they pretend they never happened and move on. I much want to see how the film was supposed to be shown rather how they are doing now.

Also to erase something that something must have happened at least.

[–] Supermanofsteel (204) 5 years ago

If Aquaman flops the rumor that Wonder Woman 84 reboots the DCEU will be true with Jason Momoa probably out.

[–] Supermanofsteel (204) 5 years ago

If Aquaman flops Jason Momoa will be out, but he and Wan have already plans for a sequel.

This film seems to be made with more heart and Soul than the other ones that were not well received.

And WB seems to give the director more liberty, not to mention there is no rush to get to the Justice League anymore.

We have reasons now to believe in the DCEU.

[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 5 years ago

I agree but disagree....

If your a DC fan....

everything WB is doing is good news and we now hope for the future

But If you SOLELY a DCEU fan, This is your worst night as The DCEU is Dead....and all traces of it being wiped from existence....

We have reasons now to believe in the DCEU.

^this sentence just doesnt make sense to me and isnt factual true

it should be " We have reasons now to believe in future DC Films"

[–] Supermanofsteel (204) 5 years ago

I'm actually happy. If they ignore the last films (minus Wonder Woman) and continue like they never happened that would be the best they could do. I'm a DC fan first.

I want the best for DC and the best is a reboot but there is still an universe.

Aquaman will be standalone with no mention of other heroes, but it's how it should be and it still makes part of the same universe as Wonder Woman Flash and Green Lantern Corps or even Shazam!

[–] Otter (24464) 5 years ago

Isn't it a little early to start arguing about box office results?

[–] Supermanofsteel (204) 5 years ago

We are almost one month away from the film so I think it's fair to try predict it.

[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 5 years ago

no now is the perfect and ONLY Time....

The first Tracking just came in....

We now have data that indicates where Awareness is.....

now is the time to discuss if you agree with those numbers or disagree....

No one is saying The film IS GOING to open between 40 to 60 Million, that would be premature....all were doing is noting thats where The tracking is at right now....and talking about whether we think it will do better or worse than that....

for me, I'm stating upfront I think It will exceed those exceptions if The film Gets good reviews....but also admit that With tracking that low, If The film doesnt receive good reviews, Its probably looking at a disastrously low opening....

there just does not seen to be much Hype or Awareness for the movie right now(again this is clearly due to coming off the awful Justice League film and a year and 1/2 of nothing but negative DCEU news)....

also something to consider Aquaman just doesnt have a very good release date....Its got TONS of competition from Big Blockbuster movies and seems to right now kinda be getting lost...

Right now were just talking "what ifs".....

but this tracking is Key, because Its Low enough it now puts EVERYTHING on The films quality and Good reviews, We now know for sure for this film to have a HUGE opening Reviews must be Good to Great to Build Hype....

Thats why for me its the perfect time to talk box office for the film because The Tracking is quite revealing....

[–] billbrown7071 (3193) 5 years ago

It Appears The Death of The DCEU Will be complete With Aquaman as first reactions are getting out and reports are "Aquaman is good but Its Tone Is Exactly Like MCU films, comparing Aquaman's tone to AM+ The Wasp and Thor Ragnarok"

"The Reaction Specifically notes The Tone shift is so strong, It Will probably anger critics and fans because There is nothing Left from The Early tones of The DCEU films

Basically....The Copying of The MCU is FULL ON for WB now....

after 5 years of horrific failure of trying to do it their own way resulting in 4 out 5 awful films....Its seems WB just Got smart and decided to COPYING Marvel Studios...

The question is will COPYING Marvel Studios result in MCU/Marvel Studios Success.....My gut says no....

IMO Aquaman will have success and Other DC films made from Copying Marvel Studios Tones will have success(certainly more success than Than snyder's dark,depressing and colorless DCEU films) but I highly doubt Aquaman has "MCU type Success"

I just dont see Shazam Making 770 Million like GOTG....

IMO WB copying Marvel Studios will ultimately be a smart move....Just wont result in MCU like success

[–] Kingswood (1215) 5 years ago

I know I'm late to the party, but...

OW: don't care
Total Dom: $275M
Total WW: $635M